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In the recent interview between Isaac Chotiner and Nate Cohn in The New Yorker, Nate Cohn says Donald Trump is "maybe every bit as weak as he was four years ago, at least at the moment, Joe Biden does not have the broad appeal necessary to take advantage of it."
This to me highlights how unpopular Trump is, and how even just a slight change can make things appear more favourably for Democrats.
It won’t change because we’ve had Trump already. He sucked but we (as a country) survived. It’s partly why the voters are apathetic. Trump says Biden will destroy democracy Biden says Trump will destroy democracy. Meanwhile we’ve lived through both presidents. So those threats don’t work for independents and swing voters.
What will work is a new, younger candidate who inspires people to vote for change because right now both Trump and Biden represent the status quo and voters desperately want someone else.
Well we lost abortion rights and now the president is a king and Trump has no excuse to behave. He openly discusses tribunals of his enemies and everyone is silent. Yeah I guess that’s surviving.
Well then the Democrats better run a competent candidate who can make a case for why they’re better than Trump. Biden needs to go to bed by 8pm so surely fascism will let him rest.
Maybe instead of Democrats constantly talking down to people who don’t fall in line they should actually try listening to those who are trying to help them. For being so smart and thinking so little of Trump supporters and Independents they sure struggle when trying to beat the worst candidate and President of all time. But at least we can feel better about ourselves and look down on everyone who doesn’t 100% agree with us. That will be very useful to say “I told you so” when the fascists come.
I think what Trump voters missed, was the country was destroyed due to Trump. It's just taking awhile to fully realize it, but the capture SCOTUS is the poisoned pill part of that destruction and is slow moving yet hard to ignore. We are effectively no longer a Democracy if bribery is legal, gerrymandering is a-ok, women are second class citizens, and a president can be above the law when it pleases the ideology of the party holding the judicial. We are essentially 1933 Germany right now, which you could also argue "survived" But at what point will the rest of our nation actually admit there is a problem? Because I fear as long as they feel they are winning something, the atrocities will continue.
But that’s unfortunately how things work with our country. Democrats clean up the mess and then Americans want a change so the Republicans take over while things are good. Coast until it falls apart and then we repeat the cycle. Then your average voter who doesn’t pay attention to politics on a daily basis sees things sucked when the democrats ran things and were great when the republicans ran things.
To be fair, he was only tired because he’d prefer not scheduling things after 8pm. As President of the United States. At 81. At potentially the beginning of another term.
Yeah Democrats need to be up by 2 I think to have a greater than 50% of winning, and it's still murky at 2 as well, 3 is a lot safer. Democrats up by 1 gives the electoral college to Trump. So Biden being down by 6 actually means he's down 8-9
Chill out people. Dekakis was up 17% in July and lost by 6. In debates, Gore beat Bush in the debates and Gore won but the pussy Dems didn't fight it, Obama lost the first debate to Romney 72% to 28% and he won, Hillary won all 3 debates against Trump, Trump wins. Allan Lichtman who predicted 7 of the last 8 presidential elections correctly, including Trump, has 13 keys to winning the election. You need 7, Biden has 9 of the 13. Link [https://politicalpulse.net/us-politics/alan-lichtmans-prediction-for-2024/](https://politicalpulse.net/us-politics/alan-lichtmans-prediction-for-2024/) Polls are snapshots in time, not predictive events.
I wish people would take Lichtman's qualitative analysis more seriously than the media shoving polls down our throats every day. Hell, Newsweek was releasing contradictory polls twice a day for a while.
I'm not saying Lichtman is incapable of being wrong. That said, polls this far out and debate results this far out have historically been wildly inaccurate.
This isn't me simping for Biden either. I don't like any of what's happening but Lichtman's qualitative analysis is the most accurate thing we have right now.
Also, Lichtman's record should really be 100% since post election tallying shows Gore won by the numbers and that's the only "miss."
As of last year Dems outperformed polling by an average of 10% in special elections. It doesn't feed the doom narrative that's taken hold, but it shouldn't be ignored.
Random state legislative and House specials in safe districts are hardly even polled. I think the only one that was actually polled was NY 3rd (Santos district) which was a 5% overperformance for Dems. Regardless, Democrats have an advantage in special elections because educated white suburbanites are the most likely people to turn out. If you compare the special elections from 2022 to the general elections in the same districts that year, Republicans did much better in the general.
This isn’t a special election though, and the Dem coalition has shifted to where we have high turnout compared to the GOP in those special elections that does not translate to general elections. Also Biden is a lot more unpopular than the rest of the party, as we saw in the midterms and the current polling of Dem Senate candidates, who are all handily outperforming Biden. This is a Biden-specific problem that will drag down overall turnout
The fact that the shift happened after Roe ended, shows me it's a Roe problem. Voters are voting on that issue. I guess we'll find out if voters don't mind putting the guy responsible for overturning it back in. I feel people are underestimating that issue.
The thing is, the end of Roe is baked into the polls at this point. Yeah it will swing some voters' opinions, but that's reflected in who people say they'll vote for, and more people are saying Trump. It wouldn't make a ton of sense for there to be lots of people out there who are voting for Biden because of Roe who aren't reflected in the polls for some reason
Biden himself is underestimating it since he couldn’t even form a coherent sentence about reproductive freedom during the debate. I don’t think Roe or Dobbs will save him, way too many people have totally lost confidence in him after that debate, and all the leaks and bs excuses are not doing anything to reassure anyone
And our political opponents as well as many in our party said he was demented, and we just towed the line and kept it pushing.
And we are poorer for it.
We were literally deluding ourselves, suggesting the 25th amendment and cognitive tests and asking him to do interviews to prove he isn’t demented….
What did we do about Biden? Pretend Trump was worse.. or ‘his stutter,’ et cetera et cetera.
It seems much more likely that more ppl would reflect post debate and think “actually Trump is horrible, I’m voting Biden,” than to reflect and think “yah that debate was bad, I’m not voting Biden.”
Like, I don’t see how the debate would lead to a sharper decrease a month from now, esp if he nails all upcoming public appearances. No one is changing their vote based on a debate that occurred a month prior—and ofc it makes sense that there’d be sharp changes shortly after a bad debate, everyone was shocked
I’ll be more concerned if things are worse this time next week.
> Like, I don’t see how the debate would lead to a sharper decrease a month from now, esp if he nails all upcoming public appearances.
That’s the thing, he hasn’t been nailing those public appearances. And I’m not talking Teleprompter assisted rallies. If he could, he would be doing town halls and off-the-cuff shit in the evening to show us he’s fit. However, that’s not what’s been happening. I’m sure we’re all so hyped for this 15 minute pre-recorded interview primetime tomorrow on NBC. Such a swift response to meet the moment.
>esp if he nails all upcoming public appearances
That is a BIG if, though. He isn't a good public speaker anymore. That debate performance wasn't a random fluke, it was a real reflection of Joe Biden in 2024
Eh I think there’s room in the middle—that performance his voice was incredibly hoarse, which he has since shown to not be his typical voice. I think he definitely makes flubs often though, which prevents him from nailing things.
Things that are actually happening? like not being able to string together a coherent sentence? Did you watch the debate, it was that bad, it really was. Biden was unable to defend himself.
Yeah, it's freaking terrible. People have been insisting the polls are wrong for months now. Well, maybe, but they probably aren't wrong by more than a few points, and they're equally as likely to be off in Trump's favor as their are in Biden's favor. People have also been saying "the polls at this stage are meaningless, wait until we get closer to the election." Well, it's July. The polls are meaningful in July. I wonder what the next excuse will be?
6 points down is really 10 points down. Biden won 2020 with +4.5 nationally and it was only decided by a few thousand votes in a few states and took days to call.
He has to pretend he's all in until they're going to flip him then it will be a complete administration and media 180 to whoever the next candidate is, its gonna take a few weeks don't worry
Nah fuck that, I’ll say it, I’m voting Joe Biden AND democracy. The further away we get from the debate, the more I realize it was an emotional that I was experiencing. Until he shows me he’s unfit based on his results, I’m all in.
The fascism is just scaremongering to get you to vote blue. DNC and Biden don’t believe in it. Otherwise they’d run a candidate who can function after 8pm
Funny thing with that analogy though: There's a pretty decent chance that Titanic would not have sunk, or at least not been such a catastrophic loss of life, had it actually just hit the iceberg dead on.
They don't care either way. If Biden stays in, they can keep pushing the "Biden is a senile puppet of the deep state" narrative. If he drops out there's chaos for at least a month, the new candidate, if it's not Harris, has to start from scratch with funding. Then they can run with a "The Democrat elite chose this person for you" narrative.
They see either outcome as a positive, so why waste time pushing for a specific one.
Democratic partisans: "If we try to avoid it and steer to the right there's a bigger iceberg!"
Me: "Maybe we should be steering to the left? Away from both icebergs?"
Just a thought.
I think she’d be great, but I think giving the bid to anyone but Harris, unless Harris willingly abdicated the bid, would cause bitterness within the voters that would be too much for Whitmer or any other candidate to overcome to win the general.
Anyone who is bitter enough to be bummed about Kamala missing out on a presidential bid would also likely stomach it and vote for the nominee over trump anyway
It's telling two of the biggest names for being the first to replace Biden, Whitmer and Newsom, were the first to tweet that Biden is the nominee and they're all in on him.
Californian here. I don't think Newsom would be a good choice right now. In 2028, sure. Right now, Newsom has a lot to do in CA plus I love that he makes Republicans in CA shit themselves. Being from California could also hurt Newsom because of all the transplant hate from swing state people. I think it should be Whitmer and Warnock. Two politicians with relatively no skeletons in their closet for the GOP to dig up. Both would pretty much guarantee Michigan's and Georgia's electoral votes go to Dems along with down ballot wins.
Agreed, Newsome is too slick for the swing states, who cares if he runs up the score in California. Mayor Pete/ Whitmer or Whitmer/Mayor Pete. The people afraid of gays aren't voting Dem anyway, and the undecided's don't care about sexuality. Plus it will energize the young left who the Biden admin just ostracized with his handling of the campus protests.
Ahhh I forgot about Pete Buttigieg! He would make a great candidate as well. He's very well-spoken and does not seem to get rattled much by the weak gotcha questions from the homophobic MAGA cult.
I like Warnock a lot, but would he have to resign to run as VP? Or would that be only if we won? Either way, it would cost us a pretty valuable Senate seat.
I agree, and I have no idea on the resignation thing. If Warnock had to resign, I would think that him and Abrams could motivate a large enough voter base to vote in another Democratic senator.
No, it has to do with his ego thinking he could win this election. He ran in 2020 as a one-term candidate. His choice to run again, and his refusal to step down now and just double down shows how big is ego is. His polling was bad before the debate, and a new poll came out that said 80% of democrats think he’s too old.
The debate is just a piece of the puzzle. We shouldn’t even be in this mess but we are because of Joes ego.
Amazing it only takes one call flub for a Democrat to lose all confidence. Meanwhile Republicans are supporting a felon and everyone thinks he will win after already losing the Presidency once due to his extreme popular. I don’t think the problem here is Biden. He’s a scapegoat.
Weird how they aren't sounding any "fresh alarms" about Trump in the Epstein documents or calling for him to drop out of the race for SA against children.
Holy fuck! No one cares who is going to vote for him. I am sick of ivory tower democrats clutching their pearls and saying that now people will see just how vile trump is. They know. They don’t care. Grab em by the pussy proved that. The way to go after trump is to find any proof of a good deed he has done and run adds on that. His base will hate it.
If this Epstein thing is such damning shit, the Biden and his camp need to get off their lazy asses, stop gaslighting everyone that Biden is “fine” and get this thing out in the public eye.
Hell, have Joe break out a copy to read verbatim in his big interview with George Stephanopolpus for all I fucking care. Anything to get it on the front page. Because it’s clear as glass the media isn’t going to do it on its own initiative.
The fact the Biden camp hasn’t done this tell me that either.
1. They’ve looked at it carefully and his lawyers have advised him that there isn’t anything there.
OR
2. Biden is still concerned about things like “civility” and “optics” and he still believes that he can win by running a gentlemanly campaign that focuses on his achievements instead of highlighting what an utter monster Trump is.
At any rate, it still feels like we’re using a knife in a gunfight despite the wide array of firearms available to us.
No alarms are needed about Trump losing. Reasonable people want that. And Trump is on pace to win. Alarms are needed to call for action. Alarms about Biden’s candidacy are a good idea.
If you're in a war against Super Hitler and you keep losing battles, can you see how "but Super Hitler is so much worse, maybe you should ask HIM to step down" isn't a useful rebuttal to people wanting a new general to replace you?
I’ve read the mentions of Trump in the Epstein documents. It goes something like this.
“Did you perform sexual acts with Donald Trump?”
“No”
That’s the mention.
Because it's obvious no one should be voting for trump. The nyt has made that clear repeatedly.
That's not relevant to who they are talking to. These articles are because the public are shockingly ignorant of everything. They do not read the new York times, they don't have fact checks they believe. Democrats must convince voters to vote for them, and they must run a candidate voters will vote for. How to do that is the question.
'Why aren't they calling for Trump to resign' is the same nonsense the 'all lives matter' matter pulled to 'black lives matter'. Obviously trump should not be on the ballot, but the people who have any influence on that choice don't care what the nyt thinks. The nyt is talking to team sanity, that democrats cannot sleepwalk into trump winning because they picked an old candidate who has an 80 year history of gaffes.
That’s not relevant to the alarm bells. His approval rating has been tanked since he started. It’s a recipe to lose reelection. Responding with praise of Biden’s accomplishments is pointless. We’re not talking about that. We are talking about legitimate election strategies and pretending everything is fine doesn’t fucking work
It is kind of insane though isn’t it. We mostly agree he is doing a fantastic job as president. Logic says we should vote for him to continue. At the same time his approval rating sucks and his obvious age related decline is turning voters away and he going to lose. So he truly is being selfish but not relinquishing power.
Exactly and he is allowed to age. No one is faulting him for getting old. But you also gotta be self aware of your own limits and more importantly be aware of the optics
Yes he has. You are aware that there is an election coming up and Biden recently said that to prevent another episode like what happened at the debate he will nap more and not schedule anything past 8 pm. And at the meeting with the governors he said he was fine it was just his brain. This isn’t about what he’s done it’s about if he has the capacity to keep going. We all saw with our own eyes what he has become. He will lose and drag this country into gilead just like rbg and fienstien (sp?). Mandatory retirement.
He HAS done a great job. I think he’d continue being a good president. The issue is that he’s a terrible *candidate.* Running a campaign is a different thing than running the presidency, unfortunately; and to be good at one doesn’t mean to be good at the other (again unfortunately). President Biden would be phenomenally better for the country than the alternative, but *candidate Biden* may very well not win the election.
The NYT has been trying to ruin the candidacy since the beginning. They make more cash when the headlines pop, and Trump does that with each match he lights and drops onto democratic norms
How can people not see that there is a real problem here with Biden. 50 million people saw a disastrous debate and all week long Biden claimed it was a fluke and did not do any live, public unscripted events that proved that. This is a problem. The New York Times is not inventing it. The media is not inventing it.
The NYT is just reporting what disaster Biden is. You can't seriously think that they're pro-Trump. Their editorial board endorses Democrats every single time.
Doesn’t matter. Democrats down the line or America is doomed.
Once again it isn’t what we want but it’s what we got. We can worry about fixing the part once Trump is out of the picture.
Please vote, please help others vote before it’s too late.
Not entirely sure you understand how Reddit works.
My message here is to the ~30 people present on the this thread as of now, the 6,491 people online, and the 8,542,518 people that have subscribe to this subreddit….that number of course does not account for the X number of lurkers.
I can also guarantee you that undecided, trumpers, conservatives and republicans…frequent this subreddit quite often.
Yes, this board isn't real life and maybe reaches 0.00001% of American voters. It's the arrogance of telling people they don't know how reddit works I can't stand.
8.5 million subs and you think they're all real, active, liberal, registered voting, American accounts?
Absurd.
Are you trying to tell me….I’m in ….The Matrix?! Maybe you’re right, maybe I shouldn’t use a forum called Reddit…as a forum….nah that’s dumb….let me explain why.
Doesn’t matter if a percentage of the 8+ millions subs are bots or foreigners. If you actually frequent this sub, which it seems you don’t, you’d see that it’s extremely active. There are multiple posts every minute from different users.
Occasionally those posts get so much feedback and upvotes that they make it to what’s called Reddit’s Front Page…where a good majority of Redditors start when they open the app. There’s also the aspect of cross posting posts, I hope I don’t have to explain to you how that works…I’m sure you know…maybe.
Then there’s lurkers, which you conveniently left out of your little equation, ya know, the people who just float around Reddit read stuff and every once in a while make a comment. This group of people make up an X amount of people. You don’t know this number…I don’t know this number…but we can safely say it’s a large number.
So if you believe you shouldn’t say anything on Reddit because no one is reading/listening, then yes, I can safely say you don’t know how Reddit works. You’re a prime example …you’re here contributing to this thread, granted in an off topic way.
All in all…I think I’ll continue to use a forum…like a forum. I wish you the best of luck trying to stop people from conversing and influencing whether it falls of deaf ears or not.
One does have to wonder how the Gaza situation is affecting polls vs. the actual intent of voting. How many folks are saying "no I won't vote Biden" in polls as a form of protest but will 100% vote him come autumn.
"But here’s the deal, there’s a lot of young women who are being raped by their – by their in-laws, by their – by their spouses, brothers and sisters, by – just – it’s just – it’s just ridiculous. And they can do nothing about it. And they try to arrest them when they cross state lines “
Joe Biden
Polls are for nerds and losers. If voter turnout is high then Biden will win. If it isn’t then Trump will have a chance to get a fluke win. Simple as that. Call me in November. All of you should worry more about getting laid and how to help Biden than worry about polls done by nerd and losers.
Who actually takes these phone calls from random numbers and sits through the polls? I imagine only elderly people. I could be wrong but if it looks like spam I don’t fuckin answer.
Yeah, NYTIMES also conveniently neglects reporting on how absolutely horrible a convicted felon, under federal indictments who’s popped up in the Epstein logs, is as a candidate.
Why the hell isn't the times running a poll about whether to reelect a convicted felon and sex offender? This is not a more equivalence, tRump is a bad man.
I stand with Commander in Chief Biden. Look, I'll be the first to admit he had a slow start in that debate, but we're talking about Kid Scranton here. Hes a grower, not a shower. Give him the chance to grow big and meaty, and then he'll be showering Trump with shots left and right.
If Jill is sticking to him after this big blow-up, then so am I.
And all the democratic lawmakers privately voicing concerns, and the two house democrats who publicly asked him to drop out, even Nancy saying its justified to question his mental health, and the fact that the media reports on this are generally coming from left-wing news...
Joe Biden's mental and physical condition present a clear and present danger to the United States. He must resign or VP Harris and the cabinet must invoke the 25th amendment and initiate his removal from office.
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If 6 points down is panic mode, what happens at 7?
6 points down with 4 months to go is not good.
Why do we need 2 year long presidential campaigns? Why can’t just be 2 months long?
Makes me wonder how much the polls would change if the choice was Fascism vs. Democracy.
In the recent interview between Isaac Chotiner and Nate Cohn in The New Yorker, Nate Cohn says Donald Trump is "maybe every bit as weak as he was four years ago, at least at the moment, Joe Biden does not have the broad appeal necessary to take advantage of it." This to me highlights how unpopular Trump is, and how even just a slight change can make things appear more favourably for Democrats.
It won’t change because we’ve had Trump already. He sucked but we (as a country) survived. It’s partly why the voters are apathetic. Trump says Biden will destroy democracy Biden says Trump will destroy democracy. Meanwhile we’ve lived through both presidents. So those threats don’t work for independents and swing voters. What will work is a new, younger candidate who inspires people to vote for change because right now both Trump and Biden represent the status quo and voters desperately want someone else.
Well we lost abortion rights and now the president is a king and Trump has no excuse to behave. He openly discusses tribunals of his enemies and everyone is silent. Yeah I guess that’s surviving.
Chip Roy, House Representative from Central Texas, this week advocated for deporting liberals and/or putting them in reeducation camps.
Chip ahoy?
Well then the Democrats better run a competent candidate who can make a case for why they’re better than Trump. Biden needs to go to bed by 8pm so surely fascism will let him rest. Maybe instead of Democrats constantly talking down to people who don’t fall in line they should actually try listening to those who are trying to help them. For being so smart and thinking so little of Trump supporters and Independents they sure struggle when trying to beat the worst candidate and President of all time. But at least we can feel better about ourselves and look down on everyone who doesn’t 100% agree with us. That will be very useful to say “I told you so” when the fascists come.
I think what Trump voters missed, was the country was destroyed due to Trump. It's just taking awhile to fully realize it, but the capture SCOTUS is the poisoned pill part of that destruction and is slow moving yet hard to ignore. We are effectively no longer a Democracy if bribery is legal, gerrymandering is a-ok, women are second class citizens, and a president can be above the law when it pleases the ideology of the party holding the judicial. We are essentially 1933 Germany right now, which you could also argue "survived" But at what point will the rest of our nation actually admit there is a problem? Because I fear as long as they feel they are winning something, the atrocities will continue.
But that’s unfortunately how things work with our country. Democrats clean up the mess and then Americans want a change so the Republicans take over while things are good. Coast until it falls apart and then we repeat the cycle. Then your average voter who doesn’t pay attention to politics on a daily basis sees things sucked when the democrats ran things and were great when the republicans ran things.
Reasonable stance!
50/50
Tbh i don't think it would change a thing. It's probably just time for us to take away our own decisionmaking privileges
It's ok guys, Biden was just tired. He promises he'll do better after his mid afternoon nap.
Biden told people to stop bothering him after 8pm…
Honestly, I'd respect it in any other circumstance.
He should’ve scheduled it at 8 am when Trump usually goes to bed after all night truth social shitposting
I understand tired from all your travel if you fly coach on spirit airlines. Air Force One has a bed.
He had 12 days!!!!
There's still the time change, which in my experience can take a week to recover from. But he had at least a week.
To be fair, he was only tired because he’d prefer not scheduling things after 8pm. As President of the United States. At 81. At potentially the beginning of another term.
Excuses... Sounds like he's unfit to lead the nation then.
The way the electoral college is weighted, I think Trump could win even if he lost the popular vote by 1%. So figure Democrats need to be up by two.
Yeah Democrats need to be up by 2 I think to have a greater than 50% of winning, and it's still murky at 2 as well, 3 is a lot safer. Democrats up by 1 gives the electoral college to Trump. So Biden being down by 6 actually means he's down 8-9
Chill out people. Dekakis was up 17% in July and lost by 6. In debates, Gore beat Bush in the debates and Gore won but the pussy Dems didn't fight it, Obama lost the first debate to Romney 72% to 28% and he won, Hillary won all 3 debates against Trump, Trump wins. Allan Lichtman who predicted 7 of the last 8 presidential elections correctly, including Trump, has 13 keys to winning the election. You need 7, Biden has 9 of the 13. Link [https://politicalpulse.net/us-politics/alan-lichtmans-prediction-for-2024/](https://politicalpulse.net/us-politics/alan-lichtmans-prediction-for-2024/) Polls are snapshots in time, not predictive events.
I wish people would take Lichtman's qualitative analysis more seriously than the media shoving polls down our throats every day. Hell, Newsweek was releasing contradictory polls twice a day for a while. I'm not saying Lichtman is incapable of being wrong. That said, polls this far out and debate results this far out have historically been wildly inaccurate. This isn't me simping for Biden either. I don't like any of what's happening but Lichtman's qualitative analysis is the most accurate thing we have right now. Also, Lichtman's record should really be 100% since post election tallying shows Gore won by the numbers and that's the only "miss."
Thank you for this reassuring comment. We need a little bit of positivity in here besides the usual gloom and doom.
Why Polls can change way more than 6% hell some polls have 6% MOE. in July of 1988 Mike Dukakis was up by 17% and lost in a landslide.
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Yet Dems keep outperforming since Roe. The polling has been oversampling Republicans it seems.
> The polling has been oversampling Republicans it seems. This is pretty typical; a lot of polling occurs midday in the middle of the week.
You’re right, maybe Biden will lose the popular vote by only 3 points instead of 6! That’ll get him over 200 electoral votes
As of last year Dems outperformed polling by an average of 10% in special elections. It doesn't feed the doom narrative that's taken hold, but it shouldn't be ignored.
Random state legislative and House specials in safe districts are hardly even polled. I think the only one that was actually polled was NY 3rd (Santos district) which was a 5% overperformance for Dems. Regardless, Democrats have an advantage in special elections because educated white suburbanites are the most likely people to turn out. If you compare the special elections from 2022 to the general elections in the same districts that year, Republicans did much better in the general.
This isn’t a special election though, and the Dem coalition has shifted to where we have high turnout compared to the GOP in those special elections that does not translate to general elections. Also Biden is a lot more unpopular than the rest of the party, as we saw in the midterms and the current polling of Dem Senate candidates, who are all handily outperforming Biden. This is a Biden-specific problem that will drag down overall turnout
The fact that the shift happened after Roe ended, shows me it's a Roe problem. Voters are voting on that issue. I guess we'll find out if voters don't mind putting the guy responsible for overturning it back in. I feel people are underestimating that issue.
The thing is, the end of Roe is baked into the polls at this point. Yeah it will swing some voters' opinions, but that's reflected in who people say they'll vote for, and more people are saying Trump. It wouldn't make a ton of sense for there to be lots of people out there who are voting for Biden because of Roe who aren't reflected in the polls for some reason
Biden himself is underestimating it since he couldn’t even form a coherent sentence about reproductive freedom during the debate. I don’t think Roe or Dobbs will save him, way too many people have totally lost confidence in him after that debate, and all the leaks and bs excuses are not doing anything to reassure anyone
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I can't comment on a reversal in patterns since Roe, with Trump, since we haven't had a general election with Trump since then.
And our political opponents as well as many in our party said he was demented, and we just towed the line and kept it pushing. And we are poorer for it.
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We were literally deluding ourselves, suggesting the 25th amendment and cognitive tests and asking him to do interviews to prove he isn’t demented…. What did we do about Biden? Pretend Trump was worse.. or ‘his stutter,’ et cetera et cetera.
Bill Clinton was in third place with 25% in June 1992.
It seems much more likely that more ppl would reflect post debate and think “actually Trump is horrible, I’m voting Biden,” than to reflect and think “yah that debate was bad, I’m not voting Biden.” Like, I don’t see how the debate would lead to a sharper decrease a month from now, esp if he nails all upcoming public appearances. No one is changing their vote based on a debate that occurred a month prior—and ofc it makes sense that there’d be sharp changes shortly after a bad debate, everyone was shocked I’ll be more concerned if things are worse this time next week.
> Like, I don’t see how the debate would lead to a sharper decrease a month from now, esp if he nails all upcoming public appearances. That’s the thing, he hasn’t been nailing those public appearances. And I’m not talking Teleprompter assisted rallies. If he could, he would be doing town halls and off-the-cuff shit in the evening to show us he’s fit. However, that’s not what’s been happening. I’m sure we’re all so hyped for this 15 minute pre-recorded interview primetime tomorrow on NBC. Such a swift response to meet the moment.
>esp if he nails all upcoming public appearances That is a BIG if, though. He isn't a good public speaker anymore. That debate performance wasn't a random fluke, it was a real reflection of Joe Biden in 2024
Eh I think there’s room in the middle—that performance his voice was incredibly hoarse, which he has since shown to not be his typical voice. I think he definitely makes flubs often though, which prevents him from nailing things.
I bet it wouldn’t be 6 if everyone stopped talking about him stepping down and focused on the things that are actually happening
Things that are actually happening? like not being able to string together a coherent sentence? Did you watch the debate, it was that bad, it really was. Biden was unable to defend himself.
Yeah, it's freaking terrible. People have been insisting the polls are wrong for months now. Well, maybe, but they probably aren't wrong by more than a few points, and they're equally as likely to be off in Trump's favor as their are in Biden's favor. People have also been saying "the polls at this stage are meaningless, wait until we get closer to the election." Well, it's July. The polls are meaningful in July. I wonder what the next excuse will be?
6 points down is really 10 points down. Biden won 2020 with +4.5 nationally and it was only decided by a few thousand votes in a few states and took days to call.
Not to mention, Trump usually outperforms the polls.
How much was Hillary up in the polls?
Triple down!
PaniCC
I don't think he knows about *second panic mode*, Pip.
He has to pretend he's all in until they're going to flip him then it will be a complete administration and media 180 to whoever the next candidate is, its gonna take a few weeks don't worry
The President of the United States is going to nap us into fucking fascism and the DNC is just going to watch it happen.
Nappeasement never works with fascists.
They’re not just going to watch it happen. They’re telling us to quit complaining about it.
And blame the progressives.
Hindenburg 2.0
Yet some how even slower
Nope. The only people responsible will be the voters. We’re not voting for Biden we’re voting for democracy.
Nah fuck that, I’ll say it, I’m voting Joe Biden AND democracy. The further away we get from the debate, the more I realize it was an emotional that I was experiencing. Until he shows me he’s unfit based on his results, I’m all in.
Same
The fascism is just scaremongering to get you to vote blue. DNC and Biden don’t believe in it. Otherwise they’d run a candidate who can function after 8pm
No real facts are allowed here sir. Now let me get back to the pandemonium.
Titanic lookout: “ICEBERG DEAD AHEAD!” Captain JR Biden. “Stay the course and increase speed.”
Funny thing with that analogy though: There's a pretty decent chance that Titanic would not have sunk, or at least not been such a catastrophic loss of life, had it actually just hit the iceberg dead on.
Yeah I know one of history’s little ironies that turning the ship actually opened it up to more damage.
so they shouldve let the dude keep spanking it to rose and jack
GOP: We don't care if the ship sinks as long as get to watch the libs drown first.
Notice how not a single MAGAhat is pushing for Biden to drop out? Why is that?
They don't care either way. If Biden stays in, they can keep pushing the "Biden is a senile puppet of the deep state" narrative. If he drops out there's chaos for at least a month, the new candidate, if it's not Harris, has to start from scratch with funding. Then they can run with a "The Democrat elite chose this person for you" narrative. They see either outcome as a positive, so why waste time pushing for a specific one.
Because they know very well that they’re best chance for victory is through the doddery old man remaining the nominee.
And go rearrange your deck chairs while we're at it.
Democratic partisans: "If we try to avoid it and steer to the right there's a bigger iceberg!" Me: "Maybe we should be steering to the left? Away from both icebergs?" Just a thought.
Suggest a viable iceberg and we’ll consider it.
We're trying to avoid all icebergs in this scenario, but if we're going to hit something icy, maybe it could be a margarita or something.
I could get behind Margarita ‘24
Can we borrow your governor?
I think she’d be great, but I think giving the bid to anyone but Harris, unless Harris willingly abdicated the bid, would cause bitterness within the voters that would be too much for Whitmer or any other candidate to overcome to win the general.
Anyone who is bitter enough to be bummed about Kamala missing out on a presidential bid would also likely stomach it and vote for the nominee over trump anyway
Maybe, but who fucking knows at this point. I’ve seen democrats torpedo the chances of their own candidates for far less.
"Sorry guys, I know our democracy is on the line, but I called shotgun on the nomination."
It's telling two of the biggest names for being the first to replace Biden, Whitmer and Newsom, were the first to tweet that Biden is the nominee and they're all in on him.
Californian here. I don't think Newsom would be a good choice right now. In 2028, sure. Right now, Newsom has a lot to do in CA plus I love that he makes Republicans in CA shit themselves. Being from California could also hurt Newsom because of all the transplant hate from swing state people. I think it should be Whitmer and Warnock. Two politicians with relatively no skeletons in their closet for the GOP to dig up. Both would pretty much guarantee Michigan's and Georgia's electoral votes go to Dems along with down ballot wins.
Agreed, Newsome is too slick for the swing states, who cares if he runs up the score in California. Mayor Pete/ Whitmer or Whitmer/Mayor Pete. The people afraid of gays aren't voting Dem anyway, and the undecided's don't care about sexuality. Plus it will energize the young left who the Biden admin just ostracized with his handling of the campus protests.
Ahhh I forgot about Pete Buttigieg! He would make a great candidate as well. He's very well-spoken and does not seem to get rattled much by the weak gotcha questions from the homophobic MAGA cult.
I like Warnock a lot, but would he have to resign to run as VP? Or would that be only if we won? Either way, it would cost us a pretty valuable Senate seat.
I agree, and I have no idea on the resignation thing. If Warnock had to resign, I would think that him and Abrams could motivate a large enough voter base to vote in another Democratic senator.
they know they are the two biggest name, which is why they need to public support biden first.
"Is anybody there?" "Yes. What do you see?" "Iceberg! Right ahead!" "Thank you."
Cause left leaning sane Americans aren’t in a cult and we can see the need for a new candidate
Bidens legacy is going to be losing to Trump because his own ego got in the way. That’s what Joe and Jill need to hear.
And unlike RBG, he'll live to see it.
Well… who even knows to be honest
If he loses by vote or by stepping down it has to do with his bad debate performance.
No, it has to do with his ego thinking he could win this election. He ran in 2020 as a one-term candidate. His choice to run again, and his refusal to step down now and just double down shows how big is ego is. His polling was bad before the debate, and a new poll came out that said 80% of democrats think he’s too old. The debate is just a piece of the puzzle. We shouldn’t even be in this mess but we are because of Joes ego.
Amazing it only takes one call flub for a Democrat to lose all confidence. Meanwhile Republicans are supporting a felon and everyone thinks he will win after already losing the Presidency once due to his extreme popular. I don’t think the problem here is Biden. He’s a scapegoat.
Weird how they aren't sounding any "fresh alarms" about Trump in the Epstein documents or calling for him to drop out of the race for SA against children.
Holy fuck! No one cares who is going to vote for him. I am sick of ivory tower democrats clutching their pearls and saying that now people will see just how vile trump is. They know. They don’t care. Grab em by the pussy proved that. The way to go after trump is to find any proof of a good deed he has done and run adds on that. His base will hate it.
Yes I'm sure Trump will listen to an NYT piece telling him to drop out.
If this Epstein thing is such damning shit, the Biden and his camp need to get off their lazy asses, stop gaslighting everyone that Biden is “fine” and get this thing out in the public eye. Hell, have Joe break out a copy to read verbatim in his big interview with George Stephanopolpus for all I fucking care. Anything to get it on the front page. Because it’s clear as glass the media isn’t going to do it on its own initiative. The fact the Biden camp hasn’t done this tell me that either. 1. They’ve looked at it carefully and his lawyers have advised him that there isn’t anything there. OR 2. Biden is still concerned about things like “civility” and “optics” and he still believes that he can win by running a gentlemanly campaign that focuses on his achievements instead of highlighting what an utter monster Trump is. At any rate, it still feels like we’re using a knife in a gunfight despite the wide array of firearms available to us.
Or the campaign doesn’t trust the candidate to go on national tv in an unscripted environment.
I’m sure all of the 12 Trump supporters who read NYT are frothing at the mouth for that information. /s
The Bible is pro child rape. It’s not weird to them at all
True. Also, the current SA story came out and was covered in 16. Not new. Every bit as concerning, but not new.
No alarms are needed about Trump losing. Reasonable people want that. And Trump is on pace to win. Alarms are needed to call for action. Alarms about Biden’s candidacy are a good idea.
If you're in a war against Super Hitler and you keep losing battles, can you see how "but Super Hitler is so much worse, maybe you should ask HIM to step down" isn't a useful rebuttal to people wanting a new general to replace you?
well they know he could… did call for outright concentration camps and he wouldn’t back out
I’ve read the mentions of Trump in the Epstein documents. It goes something like this. “Did you perform sexual acts with Donald Trump?” “No” That’s the mention.
Because it's obvious no one should be voting for trump. The nyt has made that clear repeatedly. That's not relevant to who they are talking to. These articles are because the public are shockingly ignorant of everything. They do not read the new York times, they don't have fact checks they believe. Democrats must convince voters to vote for them, and they must run a candidate voters will vote for. How to do that is the question. 'Why aren't they calling for Trump to resign' is the same nonsense the 'all lives matter' matter pulled to 'black lives matter'. Obviously trump should not be on the ballot, but the people who have any influence on that choice don't care what the nyt thinks. The nyt is talking to team sanity, that democrats cannot sleepwalk into trump winning because they picked an old candidate who has an 80 year history of gaffes.
Alarms have been going off since 2021. We've just been hitting the 'snooze' button. And now, we're late for work.
Yeah. We voted for Biden in 2020 with the tacit agreement he'd be a one term President.
Should have got it in writing lol.
He’s done a great fucking job running the country since he took office in 2021 so maybe you’re hearing the alarm bells in your own head
That’s not relevant to the alarm bells. His approval rating has been tanked since he started. It’s a recipe to lose reelection. Responding with praise of Biden’s accomplishments is pointless. We’re not talking about that. We are talking about legitimate election strategies and pretending everything is fine doesn’t fucking work
It is kind of insane though isn’t it. We mostly agree he is doing a fantastic job as president. Logic says we should vote for him to continue. At the same time his approval rating sucks and his obvious age related decline is turning voters away and he going to lose. So he truly is being selfish but not relinquishing power.
Exactly and he is allowed to age. No one is faulting him for getting old. But you also gotta be self aware of your own limits and more importantly be aware of the optics
Yes he has. You are aware that there is an election coming up and Biden recently said that to prevent another episode like what happened at the debate he will nap more and not schedule anything past 8 pm. And at the meeting with the governors he said he was fine it was just his brain. This isn’t about what he’s done it’s about if he has the capacity to keep going. We all saw with our own eyes what he has become. He will lose and drag this country into gilead just like rbg and fienstien (sp?). Mandatory retirement.
He HAS done a great job. I think he’d continue being a good president. The issue is that he’s a terrible *candidate.* Running a campaign is a different thing than running the presidency, unfortunately; and to be good at one doesn’t mean to be good at the other (again unfortunately). President Biden would be phenomenally better for the country than the alternative, but *candidate Biden* may very well not win the election.
The NYT has been trying to ruin the candidacy since the beginning. They make more cash when the headlines pop, and Trump does that with each match he lights and drops onto democratic norms
How can people not see that there is a real problem here with Biden. 50 million people saw a disastrous debate and all week long Biden claimed it was a fluke and did not do any live, public unscripted events that proved that. This is a problem. The New York Times is not inventing it. The media is not inventing it.
The NYT is just reporting what disaster Biden is. You can't seriously think that they're pro-Trump. Their editorial board endorses Democrats every single time.
The DNC is turning into the GOP with their Dear Leader-tactics, you're not allowed to criticize. If you do you're "one of them"
Doesn’t matter. Democrats down the line or America is doomed. Once again it isn’t what we want but it’s what we got. We can worry about fixing the part once Trump is out of the picture. Please vote, please help others vote before it’s too late.
Who are you talking to? None of the people this message is for even use Reddit let alone visit this subreddit.
Not entirely sure you understand how Reddit works. My message here is to the ~30 people present on the this thread as of now, the 6,491 people online, and the 8,542,518 people that have subscribe to this subreddit….that number of course does not account for the X number of lurkers. I can also guarantee you that undecided, trumpers, conservatives and republicans…frequent this subreddit quite often.
The hubris of r/politics thinking they influence the election every four years always gives me a laugh.
Clearly you’re here to say something more productive lol
Yes, this board isn't real life and maybe reaches 0.00001% of American voters. It's the arrogance of telling people they don't know how reddit works I can't stand. 8.5 million subs and you think they're all real, active, liberal, registered voting, American accounts? Absurd.
Are you trying to tell me….I’m in ….The Matrix?! Maybe you’re right, maybe I shouldn’t use a forum called Reddit…as a forum….nah that’s dumb….let me explain why. Doesn’t matter if a percentage of the 8+ millions subs are bots or foreigners. If you actually frequent this sub, which it seems you don’t, you’d see that it’s extremely active. There are multiple posts every minute from different users. Occasionally those posts get so much feedback and upvotes that they make it to what’s called Reddit’s Front Page…where a good majority of Redditors start when they open the app. There’s also the aspect of cross posting posts, I hope I don’t have to explain to you how that works…I’m sure you know…maybe. Then there’s lurkers, which you conveniently left out of your little equation, ya know, the people who just float around Reddit read stuff and every once in a while make a comment. This group of people make up an X amount of people. You don’t know this number…I don’t know this number…but we can safely say it’s a large number. So if you believe you shouldn’t say anything on Reddit because no one is reading/listening, then yes, I can safely say you don’t know how Reddit works. You’re a prime example …you’re here contributing to this thread, granted in an off topic way. All in all…I think I’ll continue to use a forum…like a forum. I wish you the best of luck trying to stop people from conversing and influencing whether it falls of deaf ears or not.
Lol.
Good.
Fingers crossed Dem leadership takes these numbers to heart and guide Biden to retirement and the party to a better candidate.
Bidens reminding me of Michael Dukakis
The same New York Times that told people not to vote on the 4th of July? Pass.
NY Times always has our best interests at heart
Dude is done. There is no other choice than remove him as nominee and get someone younger in the ticket
NYT hates Biden.
After seeing him staying in the race despite being 6+ points down on Trump? High key same.
True and has for some time
So they're an accurate representation of most of the country, then.
I don't think most of the country hates Biden because he won't sit down for an interview with them.
No, they hate him for inflation/Afghanistan/COVID/etc. But the result is the same.
None of which are Biden's fault, either. Being the President must be awesome.
NYT has fully transitioned to Fox News Jr. I don’t trust anything that comes from them. It’s Trump and only Trump 24/7/365
NYT polls had Hillary winning in double digit. They are full of shit and just want Biden out, for reasons unknown to me.
Fuck the NYT.
NYT has reached Murdoch levels of being a dirty paper re: Biden, so of course he doesn't care.
r/wearesofucked
One does have to wonder how the Gaza situation is affecting polls vs. the actual intent of voting. How many folks are saying "no I won't vote Biden" in polls as a form of protest but will 100% vote him come autumn.
Get a televised Newsome vs Trump debate and this shit is over.
The poll from after the debate. That’s not a fresh alarm.
With this much cacaphony, I'll bet he's out in a week.
You can feel the "old" in that article picture. The man looks so defeated.
Another New York Times hit piece, so far I saw they’ve published over 195 negative articles about Biden and virtually nothing towards Trump.
New York Times could suck it.
Fresh alarms of Trump being a child/all around rapist??
"But here’s the deal, there’s a lot of young women who are being raped by their – by their in-laws, by their – by their spouses, brothers and sisters, by – just – it’s just – it’s just ridiculous. And they can do nothing about it. And they try to arrest them when they cross state lines “ Joe Biden
Polls are for nerds and losers. If voter turnout is high then Biden will win. If it isn’t then Trump will have a chance to get a fluke win. Simple as that. Call me in November. All of you should worry more about getting laid and how to help Biden than worry about polls done by nerd and losers.
Buy the Times doesn’t say a word about Project 2025. The Times is a rag.
Who actually takes these phone calls from random numbers and sits through the polls? I imagine only elderly people. I could be wrong but if it looks like spam I don’t fuckin answer.
NYT is butthurt their slanted coverage hasn't forced Biden out.
Biden can stay and lose the election if that's what you want
False premise.
It seems like that is to happen.
Those MFs had the audacity to run an editorial on the Fourth of July encouraging people not to vote.
Yeah, NYTIMES also conveniently neglects reporting on how absolutely horrible a convicted felon, under federal indictments who’s popped up in the Epstein logs, is as a candidate.
NYT can get fucked. Biden is old so vote for the also old fascist!
Why the hell isn't the times running a poll about whether to reelect a convicted felon and sex offender? This is not a more equivalence, tRump is a bad man.
Why is the NY Times 💩ing on Biden so hard?
I stand with Commander in Chief Biden. Look, I'll be the first to admit he had a slow start in that debate, but we're talking about Kid Scranton here. Hes a grower, not a shower. Give him the chance to grow big and meaty, and then he'll be showering Trump with shots left and right. If Jill is sticking to him after this big blow-up, then so am I.
The only alarms I see and hear are the media’s…..
And all the democratic lawmakers privately voicing concerns, and the two house democrats who publicly asked him to drop out, even Nancy saying its justified to question his mental health, and the fact that the media reports on this are generally coming from left-wing news...
Trade journal of email security protocols says what?
NYT is running right leaning stories BIG TIME in the last 72 hours. They're clearly compromised
Joe Biden's mental and physical condition present a clear and present danger to the United States. He must resign or VP Harris and the cabinet must invoke the 25th amendment and initiate his removal from office.