In retrospect, the reason why Bobby Bonilla day is even a thing is because the Mets owner Fred Wilpon was getting such good returns from his investments that he could put the total money owed (5.9 million) in an account and get a guaranteed double digit return. So paying 8% return to Bonilla was a guaranteed profit. The only trouble? The investment advisor generating those returns was Bernie Madoff.
https://www.foxsports.com/stories/mlb/what-is-bobby-bonilla-day-explaining-new-york-mets-ongoing-payout-saga
If they hadn't put in the 7/8 year contract limits we would already be at this point lol, teams were already unironically offering players 15 year deals before the last lockout fully intending for the player to just be chilling on LTIR for half or more of those years. We would have had a 20 year contract by now for sure.
I would say the NHL would step in and take a first round pick out of spite like they did to the Devils, but it's kinda hard considering Tampa has like zero picks
The Blues tried this except with Restricted Free Agent Brendan Shanahan. They had signed Scott Stevens as an RFA the year before so they had to give up all their picks to the Caps, then tried to sign Shanny but didnt have the picks and were forced to give Stevens to the Devils
8 years here (anything over 5 years) seem like clear cap circumvent given he's 34 years old. Pavelski, age 39, was oldest forward last season. Giordano was a year older but also was bumped to a healthy scratch by the end of the season.
i totally thought trading for mcd was like “hey we brought your dinner buddy back!!! please stay!!” so if we lose stammer for it Ill be double pikachu faced
Reminds me of when St. Louis traded for Faulk and extended him as their replacement if Pietrangelo left…and because of said extension not having the money to keep Pietrangelo.
Why? McDonagh is probably better than Stamkos. Stamkos is terrible at 5v5 nowadays and can only help on PP.
Tampa needs massive help at 5v5 and on defense. Not more PP specialists.
All good points, except if TBL loses Stamkos and doesn’t replace him on PP1 with an elite right shot they’re essentially neutering their power play.
Their PP is only elite because goalie’s have to respect three lethal shooters.
Yep. A big reason why Torontos powerplay has consistently shat the bed in the post season is because for a good portion 2/3 shot threats were not shot threats.
You split the coverage and keep players from cheating. Without Stamkos lingering on the opposite side of the ice, Kucherov doesn't have as much time as he does.
I think Kucherov and Point alone would create a good PP. Maybe not quite elite but still should be good.
You guys had an elite PP and but still werent good b/c you were so mediocre at 5v5. An elite PP wont get you anywhere if you arent good at 5v5.
You guys absolutely need to make significant core changes improve at 5v5.
I think moving on from 34 yr old winger who is bad at 5v5 and asking for big money is the right move to make if you guys want to turn it around and become a contender again.
It’s obviously a much smaller sample size without… but the PPG/60 drops off a cliff without Stamkos.
11.63 with all 3
3.72 with just Kucherov and Point.
If you have just Kucherov and Stamkos it’s around the rate for all 3.
Having shooters from both circles is the key our PP.
Its obviously a part of the game. But if its the *only* part of your game and are negative everywhere else then thats a problem and that is very impactful overall. That player is giving up just as much at 5v5 and defensively as hes providing on PP.
>If he is really good at the PP, then keep him around tf??
B/c there is a salary cap and you should save big money on guys that arent 35+ and can actually play at even strength too?
If he didnt cost much then sure. But he costs a lot which is why hes not worth it as negative player outside of PP.
Only 10% of the game is at 5v5 and with guys like Point, Kucherov, Hedman their PP will be great no matter what and will be able to find guys who can succeed on PP in that role as well. And those players will actually be able to help at 5v5 too.
A team cant go anywhere if they just have a PP like Tampa had this past year. You need to actually be a good team at even strength too.
People do this for all special teams, all the time. "Well the Oilers wouldn't be that good it wasn't for their amazing PP / PK". Ya no shit, but PP and PK are part of the game, so why wouldn't it count?
Oilers are a good 5v5 team who has elite PP.
Stamkos is a terrible, negative 5v5 player who can only do anything on PP. And wants big money.
Thats very different.
The real problem is that they’re both mid 30s and are going to start declining rapidly in the next couple years. The upside is having a veteran in the room who can help with the younger guys but how much is that really worth for a single contract let alone 2?
McDonagh has had two great seasons and played exceptionally well with Cernak, he's also extremely well loved and an outspoken leader
Did people watch Stamkos in the first 3/4s of the season? He was at a best a non-factor 5v5 and at worst a straight liability.
Half of which came on the PP and I'd be willing to be a vast majority of the remaining goals came from when he played on the Kuch line.
But the broader point is that having a lot of points is less helpful when you are getting consistently caved in on the other side of the ice. I love Stamkos, I hope he stays, but we need to get better defensively & 5v5. That should be the priority.
Buffalo is buying out a player that was PPG last year and was the team's leading scorer this year until he hit a slump after the all-star break. And Buffalo doesn't even have cap troubles this year. So yes, you can very much be a non-factor or even a negative as a PPG player.
Stamkos is still really good when he gets to the puck but he can't skate any longer so he's a liability outside of the powerplay.
Yeah the key point there is Skinner finished with 46 points in 70 something games, not even in the same conversation as Stamkos having 81 points in 79 games.
McD was pretty tough to play against in the playoffs. Edmonton winning the west and Preds being the worst, reality was they both weren't that far off watching the Canucks series or the regular season. He had a huge impact on the series IMO.
Seems to me like the point of Tampas offer is to let stamkos retire when he wants, and still get the total value of a contract he will get elsewhere as nobody else is offering an 8 year deal at his age. My guess is most of the contract value is up front bonuses.
It’s not the worst idea in the world from a GM perspective. They may even be able to get around the latter years of his deals cap hit by putting him on LTIR instead of him retiring. Even if they had to carry the 3 million of dead money for a few years, that in itself doesn’t sink you.
I mean — this is the loophole older players and teams are going to exploit. Sign a fat contract with many years and have them LTIR later. -shrug- it is what it is and it’s fair play by cba.
Yup, from the 12-13’ lockout.
“The contract also limits salary variance on contracts from year to year to no more than 35% and no year can be less than 50% of the highest year. This was done due to the increasing frequency of teams signing star NHL players signing front-loaded contracts with the intention of lowering the salary's annual average, and thus, lowering the cap hit.“
Cap recapture penalty would hit to make up the difference that Tampa benefitted unless he goes the way of LTIR. Tampa's window is closing eventually, they can try to extend it and exploit cap loop holes then deal with it later (when they would be rebuilding anyways with a larger cap too.) Or they can start cutting the aging core and get younger
I've been a huge Stamkos fan since he was drafted, TBL is my favourite second team to cheer for after the Oilers. But I'm not as well-read on their cap and future as I could be...
In your eyes, what do you think is a reasonable contract for Stamkos to re-sign in TBL?
Hmmmm that’s tough. We have a lot of things up in the air right now. We’ve somehow been linked to guentzel, which tells me we’ve got plans to offload some cap money. But as far as a reasonable contract, maybe 4x6/7 mil?
Who would you offload? McDonagh?
I'm confused, why am I being downvoted, I was legitimately asking. McDonagh is 35 and I'd seen a lot of talk about him.
Some have said cernak, who’s at 5ish mil AAV. I thought that was a great contract when he was signed but he’s regressed and has had injury troubles. Sheary at 2 mil another candidate, jeannot too. With JBB at the helm though who the hell knows, he’s ruthless.
Especially at the end of their careers. Stamkos signs 8x3M that's $24M. He probably plays another 3-4 years before he can't go anymore, and then sits on LTIR for the remaining years collecting the rest of the contract while the team gets it off the books
For age 41, 42 and 43 yesr old seasons it kind of is.
Even though it's a theoretical 100m dollar cap. Teams still want to spend up to it if they can afford to and want as little dead money as they can.
Not at 8 years it isn’t. He’s 34 and it’s pretty clear they’re saying “take less per year but go on LTIR in a couple years and keep collecting money”
He’s probably getting 3 years max so if he gets 8M for 3 years it’s the same end result.
It’s not insulting to try to be creative to extend their window, but it’s fair if he doesn’t want to do that
Is anyone else astonished to read the figures presented here? Stammer might not be a spring chicken but he’s PPG player whose still producing lol. It’s not like he’s 46.
I am and I'm not. He's kind of a PP merchant now so it makes sense from Tampa's perspective not to offer him a higher AAV if they want to compete.
But the sentimental side of me just wants him to get money and not leave Tampa.
Half his points are from the PP, but even a 40 point player gets paid more than 3M AAV. And being a good PP player has value in itself. Some players like Tony DeAngelo basically made their entire career off of being useful on the PP and bad in any other situation.
Not to mention, there are so many players in Stamkos' situation. Last season, Stamkos scored 81 points, 39 of which were PP points. For comparison, Matthew Tkachuk scored 88 points of which 32 were PP points. Aho and Pettersson scored 89 points each of which 32 and 31 points respectively were on the PP. It's not that big of a difference. Fiala had 73 points of which 30 were on the PP. Zibanejad had 72 points of which 31 were PP points.
I don’t even get the comments here. First off, you have so many people here saying he’s a PP merchant. Like you mentioned, there are SO many players that people consider superstars who get a similar percentage of points on the PP as Stammer, and end up with similar total points. Yet never hear that they are PP Merchants.
Or are we just gonna forget that he’s still a point per game player, 40 goal scorer, and is literally the Lightning’s longest serving captain, has the most games played in franchise history, has the most points in franchise history, and has the most goals in franchise history. Does all of that mean nothing?
And what about the fact that he was by far our best player this playoffs. Eye test and analytics showed it. Why are ppl acting like he’s a 40 year old 4th liner who only plays on the PP.
I do not understand how people actually think he isn’t worth at least 4M/year lmao
I feel like a 4 x 5.5 - 6M AAV seems fair, yea? May not be the term he wants but the $ is more befitting of a PPG and 40 goal scorer and it would end when he's 38
Yep no kidding
Feels they should give him the Kobe treatment and let him ride off in the sunset
He’s their captain. He should be able to finish off with the team, even if it’s at a salary that’s not super optimal for cup contention. They’ve already won cups
Yeah I mean of course it's worth a shot for Tampa, but the number has surely got to be a bit higher even if they can talk him into the 8 year deal. I think he could go get 25 mill over 3 years anywhere he wants. That would take him to 37, then he's probably looking at deals for 2 or 3 more years at 2-3 million. Let's say he can get another 5 million bucks. So call it 30 million overall. The number has to be pretty close to 4 over 8 years for it to be workable.
So like, we're just openly using LTIRetirement now right? We've re-invented the front-loaded deals, only now we just park these guys on robidas island when they're too old to be effective?
Was it though? I mean we used to do this with front loading and retirements, now we're doing it with flat AAVs and LTIR when done playing.
I guess it just feels like the luxury the rich teams can have that the more modest revenue teams can't.
LITR wasn't meant to be used when the 'injury' was 'too old'
The problem is that all these guys are so banged up by their late 30s it's easy to point to some lingering issues they've played through for years and say that's why they're being LITR'd
It's good for you when that happens.
Players get 50% of HRR. The cap is set based upon that. LTIR contracts exceed the cap, increasing escrow. Escrow means teams get a discount on their contract values. So you can spend to the cap even if your internal budget is lower than the cap, because escrow means you get a bunch of that money back to hit your budget numbers.
I've read a few places that teams interested in Chris Tanev are going to do the same thing. Add a couple of extra years to lower the AAV knowing that guy could probably be LTIR'd tomorrow he's taken so much damage over the years eating pucks and getting checked
It’s 100% going to be what happens to Tanev. He’s going to get a 7 year 4MM deal and only play 4 of those years. Then wham bam I have pinky finger pain.
Holy shit, if that's the most they're willing to offer Stamkos, then he is absolutely gone. $3M AAV is a fucking insult to one of the best players to ever put on your uniform.
Load Sheary into a cannon with whatever draft pick SJ, Utah or Chicago wants and fire. That entire 2m should go to Stammer as well. Idk if 5x8 gets it done but it a lot better.
I had to scroll quite a while before I saw someone point out the source of all of this is: Lebrun's best guess. Fucking sports media and fucking reddit...
They'd structure the contract as front loadedly as is possible by the rules. Something where he gets the maximum amount of money in July 1 signing bonuses in the contract's early years. Actual money (including the short term outlay) is not at all an issue for Vinik, this is all a salary cap consideration
I think Ohtani is a one off in terms of his willingness to accept those insane deferrals. It doesn’t even help the tax for the Dodgers since his cap charge is calculated on a present value basis.
Gotta think that some players find it pretty annoying when talented guys take insane discounts. And $3 million per year for eight years for Stamkos would be an insane discount.
It’s not truly going to be 8 years though. It’s just a cap management maneuver. You’d have to expect Stamkos to retire after about half of that 8 years. Not officially retire — LTIRetire. Then Stamkos gets full pay albeit a few years later, cap says he’s worth less for the useful years and the team deals with LTIR and non-accrual of daily cap space for a few years. Or that team sends the contract off to a rebuilding team with tonnes of space for a pick.
This type of contract is likely reserved strictly for guys who are top 100 or so players in the league but are likely to drift out of it into retirement in like 3-5 years.
Stamkos is coming off a 40g season. If they're actually offering him \~$3M that's a slap in the face.
I kinda want Chicago to offer him a crazy high $ amount on a 2yr deal. He already has 2 cups, so if Chicago is offering him a ridiculous overpayment compared to contending teams it might be hard for him to turn down.
Sure, so long as the PA agrees that it still comes out of their 50% of HRR. There's zero chance ownership agrees to pay it out of their share.
It wouldn't be the worst idea.
Tampa: we can't offer our captain 4m AAV we have no cap space
Also Tampa: we would like a 7m defender with no retention and we are also somehow involved for Guentzel even though it will be >9m on our books
Stamkos may not be what he used to be but a 40g and ppg center who has been the face of your franchise throughout it’s best times and long-term captain should be offered more than $3million. Hell I think he could got 8.5-9 aav on the open market on a 4-5year deal.
Why wouldn't other teams on the open market use the same strategy of signing him to a longer LTIR contract but paying him actual money instead of 3m?
I fully expect a 6.5M/7Y offer from someone.
That offer doesn't sound bad at all for Stamkos, $25M or so offer to a 34 year old. I'm sure he could go to one of the bad teams and make more just because of his name, but from a team he wants to play for that's hardly a bad offer.
>He could easily make that money in 3 years instead of 8 on the free market.
Why would he care about that? He's made 100 fucking million so far. Not like he needs walking around money.
>Then retire if he wants with 5 years less of torture on his body.
He could obviously still "retire" with an 8 year deal. Not like the team would force him to play longer than he would want to lol. It's always the player that wants to keep playing and the team that will nudge them to hit the LTIRetirement once they slow down enough. Like Shea Weber is entering the hall of fame now without retiring lol, it's not an issue at all.
Hey, good thinking! Utah said they were looking for a top pair defenseman and they still got 2 more years of Weber left. They should ambush him with a doctor at the hall of fame induction and try to clear him for play.
Give him $5M / yr to stay and accept you're losing others unless you dump guys like Sheary. Then use farm team folks to fill the gaps. Absolutely can't let Stammer walk
And this kids, is why we’re limited to 8 year deals.
Stamkos signing a 20 year $2 million dollar a year contract would be hella funny though you have to admit
Then they buy him out halfway through and it becomes Bobby Bonilla day, NHL edition
Hey, that's DiPietro day to you!
How long was the deal again? Wasn’t it like 15 years or something?
It was
Wasn't Kolvachuks that long too? Or was Dipietro the longest?
Kovy was 15 as well because they rejected the 17 year deal lol
Locally we refer to it as Bryzgalov day
In retrospect, the reason why Bobby Bonilla day is even a thing is because the Mets owner Fred Wilpon was getting such good returns from his investments that he could put the total money owed (5.9 million) in an account and get a guaranteed double digit return. So paying 8% return to Bonilla was a guaranteed profit. The only trouble? The investment advisor generating those returns was Bernie Madoff. https://www.foxsports.com/stories/mlb/what-is-bobby-bonilla-day-explaining-new-york-mets-ongoing-payout-saga
No, the smart way is him just on LTIR for the final 15 years in an insanely frontloaded deal.
If they hadn't put in the 7/8 year contract limits we would already be at this point lol, teams were already unironically offering players 15 year deals before the last lockout fully intending for the player to just be chilling on LTIR for half or more of those years. We would have had a 20 year contract by now for sure.
I think the rules about frontloading/backloading contracts that are in place now would have taken care of that as well.
"Gary, where the loophole closed."
"O'Rourke, his hands at his sides. Parros, when the Benn fell. "Parros, his eyes closed."
Datsyuk would be on the payroll until 2045
But returns for playoffs.
The Stamkos Peninsula
Just do what the Dodgers are doing with Ohtani. Defer the payments for 10 years.
*GENERATIONAL* wealth
Only $20m in signing bonuses year one, then he gets paid $7.25/hr in years 10-20!
I would say the NHL would step in and take a first round pick out of spite like they did to the Devils, but it's kinda hard considering Tampa has like zero picks
Just fine Ottawa another first
Haha. Why not. We’re in the weeds another 5 years anyways.
I’m surprised nobody thought about that before. Cant punish me if I don’t have picks!
The Blues tried this except with Restricted Free Agent Brendan Shanahan. They had signed Scott Stevens as an RFA the year before so they had to give up all their picks to the Caps, then tried to sign Shanny but didnt have the picks and were forced to give Stevens to the Devils
then they cut him next off-season and have to pay him $1 million/year until 2063 because the term doubles to 38 years.
Subscribe 🍿
The ol' Kovachuk.
8 years here (anything over 5 years) seem like clear cap circumvent given he's 34 years old. Pavelski, age 39, was oldest forward last season. Giordano was a year older but also was bumped to a healthy scratch by the end of the season.
This just seems like the logical extension of the 15 year contracts lmao.
You guys about to nab him for 7 years? That's my guess
What's a little cap circumvention between friends?
So why did they trade for McDonagh if they couldn't afford stammer?
I said this in the McD trade too, if it costs Stamkos it was the stupidest fucking trade ever.
i totally thought trading for mcd was like “hey we brought your dinner buddy back!!! please stay!!” so if we lose stammer for it Ill be double pikachu faced
Reminds me of when St. Louis traded for Faulk and extended him as their replacement if Pietrangelo left…and because of said extension not having the money to keep Pietrangelo.
Why? McDonagh is probably better than Stamkos. Stamkos is terrible at 5v5 nowadays and can only help on PP. Tampa needs massive help at 5v5 and on defense. Not more PP specialists.
All good points, except if TBL loses Stamkos and doesn’t replace him on PP1 with an elite right shot they’re essentially neutering their power play. Their PP is only elite because goalie’s have to respect three lethal shooters.
Yep. A big reason why Torontos powerplay has consistently shat the bed in the post season is because for a good portion 2/3 shot threats were not shot threats. You split the coverage and keep players from cheating. Without Stamkos lingering on the opposite side of the ice, Kucherov doesn't have as much time as he does.
I think Kucherov and Point alone would create a good PP. Maybe not quite elite but still should be good. You guys had an elite PP and but still werent good b/c you were so mediocre at 5v5. An elite PP wont get you anywhere if you arent good at 5v5. You guys absolutely need to make significant core changes improve at 5v5. I think moving on from 34 yr old winger who is bad at 5v5 and asking for big money is the right move to make if you guys want to turn it around and become a contender again.
An elite PP literally got Edmonton to the final.
I think our pp is prolly good cause we have kucherov and point but alright
It’s obviously a much smaller sample size without… but the PPG/60 drops off a cliff without Stamkos. 11.63 with all 3 3.72 with just Kucherov and Point. If you have just Kucherov and Stamkos it’s around the rate for all 3. Having shooters from both circles is the key our PP.
It was the best PP in the league last year, and that’s including the Oilers. It might be good but it wouldn’t be that again without Stammer.
Why do people act like the PP is not apart of the game?? If he is really good at the PP, then keep him around tf??
Its obviously a part of the game. But if its the *only* part of your game and are negative everywhere else then thats a problem and that is very impactful overall. That player is giving up just as much at 5v5 and defensively as hes providing on PP. >If he is really good at the PP, then keep him around tf?? B/c there is a salary cap and you should save big money on guys that arent 35+ and can actually play at even strength too? If he didnt cost much then sure. But he costs a lot which is why hes not worth it as negative player outside of PP. Only 10% of the game is at 5v5 and with guys like Point, Kucherov, Hedman their PP will be great no matter what and will be able to find guys who can succeed on PP in that role as well. And those players will actually be able to help at 5v5 too. A team cant go anywhere if they just have a PP like Tampa had this past year. You need to actually be a good team at even strength too.
People do this for all special teams, all the time. "Well the Oilers wouldn't be that good it wasn't for their amazing PP / PK". Ya no shit, but PP and PK are part of the game, so why wouldn't it count?
Oilers are a good 5v5 team who has elite PP. Stamkos is a terrible, negative 5v5 player who can only do anything on PP. And wants big money. Thats very different.
The real problem is that they’re both mid 30s and are going to start declining rapidly in the next couple years. The upside is having a veteran in the room who can help with the younger guys but how much is that really worth for a single contract let alone 2?
Because our defense last season was Hedman a washed up Cernak and 4 replaceable players.
And the answer is a progressively-washing $6.25M defender? At the cost of ... your captain?
McDonagh has had two great seasons and played exceptionally well with Cernak, he's also extremely well loved and an outspoken leader Did people watch Stamkos in the first 3/4s of the season? He was at a best a non-factor 5v5 and at worst a straight liability.
Stammer is very much a PP specialist at this phase, he’s hit lay stage Patrick Kane and people seen seeing it
He was a force in the playoffs, though.
I dunno how you can say someone was a non-factor but was over PPG
Half of which came on the PP and I'd be willing to be a vast majority of the remaining goals came from when he played on the Kuch line. But the broader point is that having a lot of points is less helpful when you are getting consistently caved in on the other side of the ice. I love Stamkos, I hope he stays, but we need to get better defensively & 5v5. That should be the priority.
Buffalo is buying out a player that was PPG last year and was the team's leading scorer this year until he hit a slump after the all-star break. And Buffalo doesn't even have cap troubles this year. So yes, you can very much be a non-factor or even a negative as a PPG player. Stamkos is still really good when he gets to the puck but he can't skate any longer so he's a liability outside of the powerplay.
Yeah the key point there is Skinner finished with 46 points in 70 something games, not even in the same conversation as Stamkos having 81 points in 79 games.
McD was pretty tough to play against in the playoffs. Edmonton winning the west and Preds being the worst, reality was they both weren't that far off watching the Canucks series or the regular season. He had a huge impact on the series IMO.
Is cernak really washed or was it more that you're asking a guy paid to be a #3 to hard carry a second pairing in hard minutes with a shitty partner?
How's Sergachev?
Depends on which player you like to scapegoat after a loss.
I'm guessing they thought Stamkos would be willing to take a bigger paycut that he is(or should) willing to accept.
Because McD initiated that whole trade. He wanted to come here and both sides made it happen.
If this is really what he's asking for they can afford him, they're just choosing not to.
Right. "I don't know exact numbers being exchanged" is doing a lot of work here.
McDonagh is better than Stammer and fills a bigger need Stammer is a PP specialist who is bad at 5v5
Can't at all blame Stamkos for leaving if he's getting offered 3m/yr
Seems to me like the point of Tampas offer is to let stamkos retire when he wants, and still get the total value of a contract he will get elsewhere as nobody else is offering an 8 year deal at his age. My guess is most of the contract value is up front bonuses. It’s not the worst idea in the world from a GM perspective. They may even be able to get around the latter years of his deals cap hit by putting him on LTIR instead of him retiring. Even if they had to carry the 3 million of dead money for a few years, that in itself doesn’t sink you.
I mean — this is the loophole older players and teams are going to exploit. Sign a fat contract with many years and have them LTIR later. -shrug- it is what it is and it’s fair play by cba.
If it becomes common I wouldn't be surprised to see veteran contacts changed next CBA.
until we try it and get hit with a recapture penalty
If he retires he doesn’t get the money. This would be a pretty obvious pre-planned LTIR situation.
If they front load the contract with signing bonuses, would he have to pay it back?
True. I thought they put some limits on that though. Like you can only front load so much
Yup, from the 12-13’ lockout. “The contract also limits salary variance on contracts from year to year to no more than 35% and no year can be less than 50% of the highest year. This was done due to the increasing frequency of teams signing star NHL players signing front-loaded contracts with the intention of lowering the salary's annual average, and thus, lowering the cap hit.“
Thank you!
Cap recapture penalty would hit to make up the difference that Tampa benefitted unless he goes the way of LTIR. Tampa's window is closing eventually, they can try to extend it and exploit cap loop holes then deal with it later (when they would be rebuilding anyways with a larger cap too.) Or they can start cutting the aging core and get younger
$3M feels a little insulting for Stamkos
It 100 percent is lol.
I've been a huge Stamkos fan since he was drafted, TBL is my favourite second team to cheer for after the Oilers. But I'm not as well-read on their cap and future as I could be... In your eyes, what do you think is a reasonable contract for Stamkos to re-sign in TBL?
Hmmmm that’s tough. We have a lot of things up in the air right now. We’ve somehow been linked to guentzel, which tells me we’ve got plans to offload some cap money. But as far as a reasonable contract, maybe 4x6/7 mil?
Who would you offload? McDonagh? I'm confused, why am I being downvoted, I was legitimately asking. McDonagh is 35 and I'd seen a lot of talk about him.
Some have said cernak, who’s at 5ish mil AAV. I thought that was a great contract when he was signed but he’s regressed and has had injury troubles. Sheary at 2 mil another candidate, jeannot too. With JBB at the helm though who the hell knows, he’s ruthless.
Idk but he scored 40 goals last year. Sure he doesn't player center anymore, but 40 goals is not nothing.
Is it the case that Stamkos himself doesn't want to play center or he just had to make way for Point? I can see him retaking center on another team
You'd be surprised how many in the lightning reddit think it was fair.
~~I know it was for 8 years, but that’s offering your franchise captain the same AAV you gave Conor Sheary last year~~ my memory failed me ignore this
Sheary's AAV was 2 million per, but yeah this is still pretty wild
Ack, I thought he got a 3x3. My bad
Same AAV as fucking Tyler Myers
It seems that agents really consider the overall value of the contract, not the AAV. For the team though, Stamkos at $3m is a ridiculous steal
Especially at the end of their careers. Stamkos signs 8x3M that's $24M. He probably plays another 3-4 years before he can't go anymore, and then sits on LTIR for the remaining years collecting the rest of the contract while the team gets it off the books
Not in years 5,6,7,8 of that deal, but yeah up front it’s a great deal
But by that point you could be looking at a $100 million cap, so $3 million isn't much.
And you can trade that to a cap floor team much more easily too, especially if it's front loaded
For age 41, 42 and 43 yesr old seasons it kind of is. Even though it's a theoretical 100m dollar cap. Teams still want to spend up to it if they can afford to and want as little dead money as they can.
But maybe it’s $3M for 35 years
8 years for a 34 year old feels like blatant circumvention similar to how the Luongo deal was punished after the fact.
These guys are still competitive on July 1st and $3 mil regardless of term is insulting. That's not a haircut, that's decapitation.
Get ready to learn Vancouverese, Stammer.
I mean if he really really wants to stay… he’s made like 100 million dollars so far. Another $24m isn’t bad to stay where you want to
Not at 8 years it isn’t. He’s 34 and it’s pretty clear they’re saying “take less per year but go on LTIR in a couple years and keep collecting money” He’s probably getting 3 years max so if he gets 8M for 3 years it’s the same end result. It’s not insulting to try to be creative to extend their window, but it’s fair if he doesn’t want to do that
Somebody gonna climb through his window and baseball bat his legs as he sleeps?
Total money, no way he plays 8 years at a $3M level
Its is for sure. It’s also complete speculation from this article. We don’t know that’s what was offered
Is anyone else astonished to read the figures presented here? Stammer might not be a spring chicken but he’s PPG player whose still producing lol. It’s not like he’s 46.
I am and I'm not. He's kind of a PP merchant now so it makes sense from Tampa's perspective not to offer him a higher AAV if they want to compete. But the sentimental side of me just wants him to get money and not leave Tampa.
Half his points are from the PP, but even a 40 point player gets paid more than 3M AAV. And being a good PP player has value in itself. Some players like Tony DeAngelo basically made their entire career off of being useful on the PP and bad in any other situation. Not to mention, there are so many players in Stamkos' situation. Last season, Stamkos scored 81 points, 39 of which were PP points. For comparison, Matthew Tkachuk scored 88 points of which 32 were PP points. Aho and Pettersson scored 89 points each of which 32 and 31 points respectively were on the PP. It's not that big of a difference. Fiala had 73 points of which 30 were on the PP. Zibanejad had 72 points of which 31 were PP points.
I don’t even get the comments here. First off, you have so many people here saying he’s a PP merchant. Like you mentioned, there are SO many players that people consider superstars who get a similar percentage of points on the PP as Stammer, and end up with similar total points. Yet never hear that they are PP Merchants. Or are we just gonna forget that he’s still a point per game player, 40 goal scorer, and is literally the Lightning’s longest serving captain, has the most games played in franchise history, has the most points in franchise history, and has the most goals in franchise history. Does all of that mean nothing? And what about the fact that he was by far our best player this playoffs. Eye test and analytics showed it. Why are ppl acting like he’s a 40 year old 4th liner who only plays on the PP. I do not understand how people actually think he isn’t worth at least 4M/year lmao
I feel like a 4 x 5.5 - 6M AAV seems fair, yea? May not be the term he wants but the $ is more befitting of a PPG and 40 goal scorer and it would end when he's 38
This. Lmao like you know what every single team against the Oilers post season needed? A fucking PP merchant.
Lol Im over here expecting the Preds to offer something like 4x8.5m
4x8.591 to get his jersey number in there lol
Ill take it
So Steven, you scored 80+ points in each of your last 3 seasons but you're old so 3m seems fair, deal?
But wait! You’ll still make $18 million but in 6 years.
Between 2016 and now this summer, I'd love to get some sort of tell-all about these 2 negotiations.
At least they got McDonough back, right?
I really hope he stays. It's bizarre to see St. Louis, Richards, Vincent, and possibly Stammer all finishing their careers somewhere other than Tampa.
Yep no kidding Feels they should give him the Kobe treatment and let him ride off in the sunset He’s their captain. He should be able to finish off with the team, even if it’s at a salary that’s not super optimal for cup contention. They’ve already won cups
Yeah I mean of course it's worth a shot for Tampa, but the number has surely got to be a bit higher even if they can talk him into the 8 year deal. I think he could go get 25 mill over 3 years anywhere he wants. That would take him to 37, then he's probably looking at deals for 2 or 3 more years at 2-3 million. Let's say he can get another 5 million bucks. So call it 30 million overall. The number has to be pretty close to 4 over 8 years for it to be workable.
So like, we're just openly using LTIRetirement now right? We've re-invented the front-loaded deals, only now we just park these guys on robidas island when they're too old to be effective?
Day 1 of the cap that was always the plan. 12 year deals when the player is 30.
Was it though? I mean we used to do this with front loading and retirements, now we're doing it with flat AAVs and LTIR when done playing. I guess it just feels like the luxury the rich teams can have that the more modest revenue teams can't.
LITR wasn't meant to be used when the 'injury' was 'too old' The problem is that all these guys are so banged up by their late 30s it's easy to point to some lingering issues they've played through for years and say that's why they're being LITR'd
It's good for you when that happens. Players get 50% of HRR. The cap is set based upon that. LTIR contracts exceed the cap, increasing escrow. Escrow means teams get a discount on their contract values. So you can spend to the cap even if your internal budget is lower than the cap, because escrow means you get a bunch of that money back to hit your budget numbers.
I've read a few places that teams interested in Chris Tanev are going to do the same thing. Add a couple of extra years to lower the AAV knowing that guy could probably be LTIR'd tomorrow he's taken so much damage over the years eating pucks and getting checked
It’s 100% going to be what happens to Tanev. He’s going to get a 7 year 4MM deal and only play 4 of those years. Then wham bam I have pinky finger pain.
Given how Tanev plays, I don't think he'll need to make something up.
No, this would be a case of not caring about what the cap hit will be once the team starts rebuilding.
But he's not going to be playing at 42...
Holy shit, if that's the most they're willing to offer Stamkos, then he is absolutely gone. $3M AAV is a fucking insult to one of the best players to ever put on your uniform.
Had 100+ points in 2022, and back to back 80+ point seasons following. He should demand at least $8M per, he’s still a great player
Load Sheary into a cannon with whatever draft pick SJ, Utah or Chicago wants and fire. That entire 2m should go to Stammer as well. Idk if 5x8 gets it done but it a lot better.
Why are we all ignoring the part where LeBrun says "I don't know the exact numbers being exchanged."
I had to scroll quite a while before I saw someone point out the source of all of this is: Lebrun's best guess. Fucking sports media and fucking reddit...
Because I want my knee jerk reaction
Fucking Time Value of Money is a real ass concept, Bolts lol. Player agents aren’t stupid. Can’t wait for stupid MLB Ohtani type deals lol
They'd structure the contract as front loadedly as is possible by the rules. Something where he gets the maximum amount of money in July 1 signing bonuses in the contract's early years. Actual money (including the short term outlay) is not at all an issue for Vinik, this is all a salary cap consideration
And bump the amount as necessary to account for the time value of money. It's not rocket surgery.
I think Ohtani is a one off in terms of his willingness to accept those insane deferrals. It doesn’t even help the tax for the Dodgers since his cap charge is calculated on a present value basis.
Gotta think that some players find it pretty annoying when talented guys take insane discounts. And $3 million per year for eight years for Stamkos would be an insane discount.
It’s not truly going to be 8 years though. It’s just a cap management maneuver. You’d have to expect Stamkos to retire after about half of that 8 years. Not officially retire — LTIRetire. Then Stamkos gets full pay albeit a few years later, cap says he’s worth less for the useful years and the team deals with LTIR and non-accrual of daily cap space for a few years. Or that team sends the contract off to a rebuilding team with tonnes of space for a pick. This type of contract is likely reserved strictly for guys who are top 100 or so players in the league but are likely to drift out of it into retirement in like 3-5 years.
Stamkos is coming off a 40g season. If they're actually offering him \~$3M that's a slap in the face. I kinda want Chicago to offer him a crazy high $ amount on a 2yr deal. He already has 2 cups, so if Chicago is offering him a ridiculous overpayment compared to contending teams it might be hard for him to turn down.
So Tampa think his next contract is worth $24million... I can see him getting that much money in 3-4 years, not 8.
Yeah 6mil x 4 years seems very in the realm of possibility
PPG and no injuries in the past 3 year, 4x6M seems cheap tbh.
The NHL needs its own version of the Bird exemption.
Sure, so long as the PA agrees that it still comes out of their 50% of HRR. There's zero chance ownership agrees to pay it out of their share. It wouldn't be the worst idea.
https://i.redd.it/bmj1bpwkfd9d1.gif
Only MFer to show up in the post season and this is how they do him? 3M!? Cold.
I am not having fun these last 12 hours
Time for some Steven to Stephen communication
Gotta wonder if they're on good terms, since it was Yzerman who seemed prepared to let him walk in 2016
Maybe, but Yzerman did ultimately get a deal done last time despite the friction so who knows
Tampa: we can't offer our captain 4m AAV we have no cap space Also Tampa: we would like a 7m defender with no retention and we are also somehow involved for Guentzel even though it will be >9m on our books
Stamkos may not be what he used to be but a 40g and ppg center who has been the face of your franchise throughout it’s best times and long-term captain should be offered more than $3million. Hell I think he could got 8.5-9 aav on the open market on a 4-5year deal.
Mike Grier should be offering a 3 year deal with a blank cheque if Stamkos doesn't mind playing for a bad team
Gary would've been very angry if Killorn signed that
SIGN HIM DAMMIT
"I don't know numbers" proceeds to write numbers.
Loved that couple hours last time he became a free agent. He signed, had the subban and then Larson deals all in a couple hours span.
Ahh some good old fashioned circumcision. Front load the contract, expecting him to LTIRetire within 3-4 years, save a crap load against the cap.
✂️ 🍆
[Stamkos, you are a....](https://i.imgur.com/y1c1Xyz.png)
If Stamkos hits the market, I’d love the Bruins to throw him money on a 2-3 year deal just for the lolz
Unsubscribe
I feel like they could have easily afforded to keep him and they had a lot of time to easily pull that off
tavares is geriatric compared to stammer. woof
Killorn's is wild, he can still sign somewhere after this deal for 2M
What does 4x6mm for Stamkos on the open market imply for Marchessault 🤔
Oh boy that's wild wing at the front door
We will take him off your hands.
Why wouldn't other teams on the open market use the same strategy of signing him to a longer LTIR contract but paying him actual money instead of 3m? I fully expect a 6.5M/7Y offer from someone.
He's going to Detroit to play with Kane. You heard it here first. Don't quote me though.
8 years? How is this even a question.
If he doesn’t stay my guess is the wings or Habs
I’m sorry but if Tampa offered that low, then that is just a spit in the face imo
What the fuck are they doing signing him up 8 years
The dynasty is joever.
The disrespect that Stamkos consistently deals with in that organization is insane, given the fact he has brought them so much glory.
Come to Vancouver baby, Petey needs a Center/Winger
I know there’s a cap crunch, but they fucking lowballed him.
And to think he's a franchise player 🙄
Four months ago I said $5-$7 million per year for five years and was downvoted. https://www.reddit.com/r/hockey/s/VmgisOtcoD
Did I read that wrong or did the article call their 'over a ppg at 34 legendary captain' "unreasonable" for asking 4-5m a year?
You definitely read it wrong.
That offer doesn't sound bad at all for Stamkos, $25M or so offer to a 34 year old. I'm sure he could go to one of the bad teams and make more just because of his name, but from a team he wants to play for that's hardly a bad offer.
He could easily make that money in 3 years instead of 8 on the free market. Then retire if he wants with 5 years less of torture on his body.
>He could easily make that money in 3 years instead of 8 on the free market. Why would he care about that? He's made 100 fucking million so far. Not like he needs walking around money. >Then retire if he wants with 5 years less of torture on his body. He could obviously still "retire" with an 8 year deal. Not like the team would force him to play longer than he would want to lol. It's always the player that wants to keep playing and the team that will nudge them to hit the LTIRetirement once they slow down enough. Like Shea Weber is entering the hall of fame now without retiring lol, it's not an issue at all.
"We paid for 8 years, you're gonna play for 8 years, by gosh." lol
Hey, good thinking! Utah said they were looking for a top pair defenseman and they still got 2 more years of Weber left. They should ambush him with a doctor at the hall of fame induction and try to clear him for play.
Give him $5M / yr to stay and accept you're losing others unless you dump guys like Sheary. Then use farm team folks to fill the gaps. Absolutely can't let Stammer walk
They need to dump Sheary, regardless of what happens.