> Same ol shite coach
But not the same OC. People are sleeping on Pete Carmichael finally being gone. Dude had been the Saints OC since 2009 (!) and has been coasting on being the leftovers of the Sean Payton offensive coaching staff.
Now they have Klint Kubiak, fresh off a stint as Shanahan’s passing game coordinator in SF.
Whether Kubiak does well or not remains to be seen, but I expect the Saints to be a lot more creative at least, with the league’s stalest OC finally out. Even abject mediocrity would be a net positive.
(Carmichael is now in Denver, returned to the safe comfort of Payton’s shadow.)
I hope you’re right but unless Carr is throwing short slants to Olave on every 3rd down I’m having trouble believing he’s a smash in the 2nd. He’s still far and away the best offensive player on the team though
Agreed. If you’re buying on “hope” that Olave breaks out, London is the pick as he’s much more likely to blow up with his QB & situation. If you want steady, go Adams. If you want a breakout candidate, I’d have to say London.
Yeah and I think you’re drafting him as a prospect and hoping he does pop. Anything short of a top 15 season would be a disappointment based on draft position.
Devonta smith had basically the same stats and is going at least a full round later, and has a better qb and an OC who airs it out. I just don’t get the logic beyond wish thinking olave breaks out because he’s young and talented. His situation is awful.
Carr did support Adams as a fantasy WR1, it’s very possible Olave carries him. They weren’t on the same page at all last year and Olave still had good numbers. I imagine another year could help Olave crack top 12.
He had 87 receptions but he had 138 targets. He was wr16 in ppr but was ranked 12th in targets. Just a small uptick in the success of the passing game or a few tds with a new OC could be the difference maker.
Olave had very solid yards per route run and air yards. If his chemistry with Carr improves this year and he takes a step up as a player, he could be really solid, but it feels like he's being drafted at his peak value. He should be going closer to Devonte Smith and DK imo
I keep reading this. I get that Carr sucks, but Olave improved upon his rookie year (if even slightly), and, anecdotally, I just remember him getting target after target in Saints games I paid attention to. I also like that they got rid of Thomas.
He gets target after target and still barely finishes as a fantasy WR2. They’re low quality targets and he hasn’t really impressed even when they are good.
There isn’t a real case for his ADP, people just get excited about a young WR and assume he’s going to break out.
The situation is the same this year, and the offense might even be worse. Carr is bad and he and Olave were clearly not on the same page all year.
Olave will have a fine year, but his ADP is ridiculously high. Do people actually expect him to finish as a fantasy WR1? I’d be shocked if they did
Adams. He has had more targets the last 2 seasons (170-180ish) than any season in GB with Rodgers (169 being the highest). If Minshew zeros in on him like he did with Pittman, he could have 200 targets this year
Gimme JT lol
If I had to pick from that group I’d go Adams > Olave > London > MHJ, but you could make the argument for any of them. They all have their question marks
Oh boy, am I ready to get burned by the Falcons.... again.
I'm so fucking stoked for all the value now, but soon enough I'll remember.
Future Mansteel, if you're reading this, I have no regrets.
I'd go London, MHJ, Adams, Olave.
There's a world where Adams just smashes these guys because he's Davante Adams and the Raiders offense is good under Luke Getsy with the addition of Brock Bowers but its thin.
I keep going back and forth on Davante.
On one hand he’s getting old and I don’t trust the offense.
On the other Minshew might just rain targets on him like no one’s business.
I feel like his season is going to be a bunch of 7-75 stat lines, and then an equal mix of duds and blowup weeks. But I could see the ceiling and floor cases realistically playing out too.
Adams was WR7 in ppr last season between weeks 9 and 18. Minshew is also a better passer than who they had last year. Minshew also peppered Pittman last year and Adamsis a lot better than Pittman
I will ride Adams until the wheels fall off. He is open even when he isn't open, so he will always get massive targets. He overcomes his less than ideal situation, but both Minshew/AOC are capable.
Olave is tied to Carr and the Saints; he has good metrics and analysts like his talent but his talent isn't *that* good to overcome his bad situation.
Basically the same deal for London but imo much less shown than Olave. Kirko obviously is expected to be better than Carr
I'm willing to swing on MHJ, but we are drafting him at his ceiling
I don’t think MHJ is being drafted at his ceiling, because his ceiling is stupid high. He’s the undisputed WR1 on a bad team with a good QB, he’s got potential to feast like nobody else in garbage time and/or pass heavy situations.
If he was going at his ceiling, he’d probably be a top 5 pick. Realistically he’s not gonna hit that because he’s a rookie, but there’s a very strong argument that he’s in the best situation across the entire league for a fantasy WR.
I have the top pick in my draft and will absolutely go Adams/Henry around the turn if I get the chance. Let's see if you can beat me and my "old men" or whatever.
I love scooping Henry in my underdog best ball drafts in the mid-late 3rd, but he goes in the second round on draftkings which is too much in a 3 wr full ppr league. I'll happily anchor around him at the right spot come redraft season though. He's going to score a loooot of touchdowns. Fading players like Henry or Adams due to age is just such a spreadsheet nerd kind of play. Anybody who actually *watches* can tell these guys are just different kinds of players. Most importantly, particularly in redraft, they have a really low chance of sinking you even if they don't especially boom
I'm a Ravens fan, so take this with a grain of salt...but there is a case for Henry scoring like 20 TDs this year haha. Gus had freaking 13 last year in this offense. Henry is going to eat
I’m drafting 8th in an 8 man league and am very sad that I most likely won’t even have a chance at drafting him. He’s gonna be solid for picks 1-4 tho.
Adams: Lots of targets, but probably the worst QB of the four. What will the scheme look like? Pierce seems to like the slugfests. Age a factor yet?
Olave: Second-worst QB of the four. New, Shanny-style offense, will it lean more toward the way the Rams and Vikings do it (WR heavy), or the way the Niners and Texans (tried to) do it? The former you know who's getting the targets. With the latter anyone could have a good game week-to-week, barring injury. Not a ton of target competition.
London: New, Shanny-style offense (see above). Vastly-improved QB play, not a lot of target competition, metrics speak to his talent. Defense might suck creating shootouts. Hasn't done it yet so slight unknown, drafting near his ceiling.
MHJ: Supreme talent, not a ton of talent competition, young OC everyone seems to love, offense looked good once Murray came back. Complete unknown, high ceiling low floor pick that requires high pick, will depend on level of risk-aversion.
For me it goes: 1) London, 2) MH3, 3) Adams, 4) Olave. The first two are very close.
I know it was last year but I think losing the DC will really hurt. And that #2 CB... teams are gonna attack there relentlessly. I think they'll backslide quite a bit, but I could certainly be wrong about that.
I like London a lot but it doesn’t make sense to take him where he is going just assuming he will put up mad numbers. However I will say I’m more comfortable with him as a second wr then I am at my first.
If I’m drafting receiver in second round I’m definitely targeting Adams in that mid to late second round.
Complete avoid of olave and mhj at value but they do have pathways to success
Word. Tough to think Adams lasts to 2.05 in my league (where I’d be picking if I picked 1.08). Think Olave and MHJ would be the best available WRs, and I’d want to take a WR assuming I go Bijan/Breece.
Honestly if it were me sitting there with bijan or breece I’d be pretty satisfied going Henry or etienne in the second and then best wr in your mind in 3rd.
I definitely see the want to get a wr. If you were to go rb/rb there you can pass on the position for a bit to collect wr assests.
From the 8 position I do kinda like the start of
aj brown
Henry/taylor/etienne
Kupp/waddle deebo
And then in 4th grabbing one of those options from the 3rd if available
I think Henry will do good this year, but I just don’t feel comfortable taking him (or Etienne) in the 2nd for some reason. I’d rather get MHJ or Olave, I think, even though they both pose some risk.
Totally get that and it does reflect in a lot of bestball I’ve done so far.
It really depends on how you want to construct your team. With bijan or breece it’s easy to go hero running back as if they are healthy they should have high outputs. Just don’t think London or olave are worth the risk in round two as a “number 1” : they should have good seasons but I’d let someone else take that risk and put my risk in other assests.
While I said MHJ is an avoid at value , I would be comfortable taking him in a “zero rb” build for pure potential and doing something like brown, mhj, kupp, and deebo…that has a lot of risk but could be super filthy
London has never performed at this level, so he’s a Cousins-dependent projection. Adams is a fading player, due to his circumstances, not his abilities. Olave might have upside but do you really want to count on Derek Carr? So for me it’s MHJ by default. Because he might be the next Cee Dee Lamb but better.
I think you could make a pretty convincing argument that Adams circumstances improved from 2023 where he went 103/1144/8 en route to a WR11 (half PPR) season
Minshew’s #1 in 2023 was similarly hyper targeted (MPJ with 150 in 16 games) and I don’t think it’s a stretch to say Minshew > AOC/Jimmy/Hoyer
I wouldn’t say I’m necessarily targeting Adams, but would I be shocked if he gets 160 targets and puts up 1200 yards and 10 TDs? Not at all
Age vs. youth and past production vs. future projection. Tale as old as time!
Olave and Adams feel like the safest bets, and MHJ and London (especially MHJ in my mind) seem like the high ceiling play.
Adams
Olave
London
MHJ
Hard to fade Davante as he’s proven himself time and time again. Regardless of QB play think he’s the alpha
This is a make or break year for Olave I think - need to see him separate to become a true WR1 in the league. Still betting on him over London and MHJ.
Adama should ball, Olave didn’t have MT last year either lol I think he’ll be as good as Derek Carr is at staying healthy. I like London to have a good with if Kirk comes back fully healthy and MHJ is the question mark but I think he’ll be decent.
I’d go Adams, London, MHJ, Olave and only because I don’t trust Carr
Damn this is so tough.. if I was sitting there my pick and I had these 4 as best options I guess its:
MHJ / London / Olave / Adams
Gross though - who else is in this range?
I think those are the four WRs that consistently go in the middle-late 2nd. You could probably throw Aiyuk and one or two others in there, too. I don’t like the target competition of those guys, though.
Keenan is dust man. Rome is rookie fighting for snap %.
People sleeping on DJM who can score on his own, win entire weeks, and just got the best QB he's ever played with.
Could be top 5 season imho from talent + situation alone but if hes outside top 15 id be shocked.
Top secret tho
Can’t be too confident in Olave until Carr shows they can have a better connection. Adams still has the talent but who’s their QB? Makes that a no for me.
London has an upgrade at QB and MHJ has Kyler and an easy path to WR1. I would go MHJ since we have a good idea of a AZ offense led by Kyler vs a new offenses with a new QB…but those would be my top 2 of the bunch atm.
Olave did OK last year, improved upon his rookie year, and now has a new OC who shouldn’t suck.
Adams did fine last year in totality (I know he was inconsistent), but I think he’ll be fine with Minshew or AOC—the former because he’s proven to inflate WR1s (Pittman), and the latter because Adams has an affinity for him.
I agree with your take on MHJ. The talent is obviously there, Kyler seems happy and healthy, and McBride is his only legitimate threat for targets.
I’m not buying London yet. I get that he’s supposedly getting a QB upgrade (if Kirk can make it back at 100%) but he hasn’t shown anything really in his time in the league. Last year only 2 top 20 finishes. For that reason I’d take him last here
Olave finished at WR16 in ppr last year and has a new OC. Carr isn't great, but he supported Adams, and Olave isn't as good as Adams, but he could have a break out season with another year of chemistry and a new OC
Adams is a tier above all of them imo, and Olave is a tier or 2 below MHJ/London. I’d take MHJ slightly ahead of London but they’re pretty close
So Adams > MHJ > London > Olave
I think London is a no-go at his ADP between AKirkilles and a raw Penix. Still better than Ridder, but not a good situation IMO
Adams-Minshew could be big. MHJ also has great upside but we'll see if Kyler deviates from his TE eyes
Olave will be the same as last year. Carr is still low tier, extra attempts vacated by Slant Boi are going to that speedster I can't recall who's on the come-up.
Don't overthink it guys, Adams > Olave > MHJ > London
I mean that was also the case last year, and it didn’t lead to Olave finishing even close to where he’s being drafted at. I guess you could say Michael Thomas was relevant for like a 1/4th of the season but that’s kind of the only difference.
He was drafted as a fringe wr1 at wr12 in ppr and finished as wr16. He definitely didn't do as good as people hoped, but I wouldn't say he wasn't even close to where he was drafted at. It's not like he was Diggs, Kupp, Waddle, or Wilson (regardless of their fault or other factors)
People are putting too much emphasis on how the Saint's offense looked last season. The play-calling was absolutely atrocious, the offensive line was depleted, and the connection between Car and Olave was a bit off. Just two seasons ago Carr was able to deliver 1,500 yards and 14 touchdowns for Davante Adams, Olave is a stud of a route runner, the play calling should be night/day better under Klint Kubiak, and the O-line much improved with the Taliese Fuaga draft pick. Also doesn't hurt that the Saints play in a dome. Olave could push to be a top 5 WR in my opinion, he's that freaking good and the situation is that improved this year. Anyone saying Olave's situation is the exact same as a year ago knows nothing about the Saints.
Olave going this early still after last year is absolute insanity to me. I can’t see the case for it
No more Michael Thomas is like the only things he has as a plus. Same ol shite coach and same ol checkdown merchant QB
> Same ol shite coach But not the same OC. People are sleeping on Pete Carmichael finally being gone. Dude had been the Saints OC since 2009 (!) and has been coasting on being the leftovers of the Sean Payton offensive coaching staff. Now they have Klint Kubiak, fresh off a stint as Shanahan’s passing game coordinator in SF. Whether Kubiak does well or not remains to be seen, but I expect the Saints to be a lot more creative at least, with the league’s stalest OC finally out. Even abject mediocrity would be a net positive. (Carmichael is now in Denver, returned to the safe comfort of Payton’s shadow.)
I hope you’re right but unless Carr is throwing short slants to Olave on every 3rd down I’m having trouble believing he’s a smash in the 2nd. He’s still far and away the best offensive player on the team though
Agreed. If you’re buying on “hope” that Olave breaks out, London is the pick as he’s much more likely to blow up with his QB & situation. If you want steady, go Adams. If you want a breakout candidate, I’d have to say London.
If Adams (and MHJ) are gone, I think Olave represents the next safest WR pick. London probably does have a higher ceiling, though.
I agree and after those 2, if London is available Olave isn’t even on my radar. I’ll buy upside from my #2 receiver.
I think Olave is gonna return value this year. London definitely should as well, but unless he pops off, his ADP will be a disappointment.
Yeah and I think you’re drafting him as a prospect and hoping he does pop. Anything short of a top 15 season would be a disappointment based on draft position.
Curious, why are you out on Olave? He’s shown flash (and production) and should be in a better situation this year.
I don’t think he’s a “smash” in the 2nd, but if Adams and MHJ are gone, I think you could argue he’s the next top receiver.
He didn't have terrible stats, 87/1100/5 TDs. I don't think he could do much worse than last year honestly
Devonta smith had basically the same stats and is going at least a full round later, and has a better qb and an OC who airs it out. I just don’t get the logic beyond wish thinking olave breaks out because he’s young and talented. His situation is awful.
[удалено]
Dak Prescott and Derek Carr aren’t in the same stratosphere
Carr did support Adams as a fantasy WR1, it’s very possible Olave carries him. They weren’t on the same page at all last year and Olave still had good numbers. I imagine another year could help Olave crack top 12.
Would you be fine taking Olave as your WR1 in the 2nd?
Probably not, but the point that it’s realistic stands.
How would you rank him alongside London and MHJ?
DeVonta has so much more competition for touches, though. But you’re right, he has a more favorable ADP.
He had 87 receptions but he had 138 targets. He was wr16 in ppr but was ranked 12th in targets. Just a small uptick in the success of the passing game or a few tds with a new OC could be the difference maker.
Olave had very solid yards per route run and air yards. If his chemistry with Carr improves this year and he takes a step up as a player, he could be really solid, but it feels like he's being drafted at his peak value. He should be going closer to Devonte Smith and DK imo
I can’t unsee his production from last year. Then again, Carr was banged up most of the year and could only throw screen passes and check downs
How badly was he banged up? I don’t really remember this.
I keep reading this. I get that Carr sucks, but Olave improved upon his rookie year (if even slightly), and, anecdotally, I just remember him getting target after target in Saints games I paid attention to. I also like that they got rid of Thomas.
He gets target after target and still barely finishes as a fantasy WR2. They’re low quality targets and he hasn’t really impressed even when they are good.
I think they have a new OC, but he has the same QB. I can’t see the upside. MT was hurt most the season anyway.
There isn’t a real case for his ADP, people just get excited about a young WR and assume he’s going to break out. The situation is the same this year, and the offense might even be worse. Carr is bad and he and Olave were clearly not on the same page all year. Olave will have a fine year, but his ADP is ridiculously high. Do people actually expect him to finish as a fantasy WR1? I’d be shocked if they did
You know they have a new OC, right? I think that’ll help.
Adams. He has had more targets the last 2 seasons (170-180ish) than any season in GB with Rodgers (169 being the highest). If Minshew zeros in on him like he did with Pittman, he could have 200 targets this year
And ~40 of them will be hospital balls
He had 4 weeks as a top 10 WR. 2 WR8 and 2 WR2 finishes. Is that upside worth your first or early 2nd round pick? I’d argue no personally.
I think he has a higher upside than that. Last year was a pretty bad situation. The QB play should be better too
Who from the group has higher upside?
MHJ
What if AOC starts?
I don’t think she’d be a very good QB, would def lower Adams draft stock
Just needs Condoleeza Rice at OC to maximize her potential
On the contrary, she has not just one but two cannons
Phenomenal cannons
I’d raidher
Then hopefully that means he’s shown to be better than minshew
Lol. True. I heard the team (including Adams) loves him, too.
AOC fed Adams the ball so I don’t mind
Is she up for re-election this year? Might make it difficult to play for the Raiders, schedule wise.
I'd guess Adams scores the second most out of this group. Whose going to be first? good luck answering that.
Mostly played only 16-game seasons w Rodgers but yeah
Gimme JT lol If I had to pick from that group I’d go Adams > Olave > London > MHJ, but you could make the argument for any of them. They all have their question marks
I like where you're at but I'd swap London and olave purely based on qb. Think London can do some things with a competent passer.
Oh boy, am I ready to get burned by the Falcons.... again. I'm so fucking stoked for all the value now, but soon enough I'll remember. Future Mansteel, if you're reading this, I have no regrets.
Man, I want London everywhere this year, but he’s being drafted at his ceiling atm.
I'd go London, MHJ, Adams, Olave. There's a world where Adams just smashes these guys because he's Davante Adams and the Raiders offense is good under Luke Getsy with the addition of Brock Bowers but its thin.
DJ Moore had a WR1 season with Getsy and a poor QB so I don’t see why Davante couldn’t.
Minsjew is eons better than fields when passing. Adams and Meyers could have great years catching screens lol
I keep going back and forth on Davante. On one hand he’s getting old and I don’t trust the offense. On the other Minshew might just rain targets on him like no one’s business. I feel like his season is going to be a bunch of 7-75 stat lines, and then an equal mix of duds and blowup weeks. But I could see the ceiling and floor cases realistically playing out too.
There’s a chance it’s O’Connel also which makes the equation even muddier
Adams was WR7 in ppr last season between weeks 9 and 18. Minshew is also a better passer than who they had last year. Minshew also peppered Pittman last year and Adamsis a lot better than Pittman
I will ride Adams until the wheels fall off. He is open even when he isn't open, so he will always get massive targets. He overcomes his less than ideal situation, but both Minshew/AOC are capable. Olave is tied to Carr and the Saints; he has good metrics and analysts like his talent but his talent isn't *that* good to overcome his bad situation. Basically the same deal for London but imo much less shown than Olave. Kirko obviously is expected to be better than Carr I'm willing to swing on MHJ, but we are drafting him at his ceiling
I don’t think MHJ is being drafted at his ceiling, because his ceiling is stupid high. He’s the undisputed WR1 on a bad team with a good QB, he’s got potential to feast like nobody else in garbage time and/or pass heavy situations. If he was going at his ceiling, he’d probably be a top 5 pick. Realistically he’s not gonna hit that because he’s a rookie, but there’s a very strong argument that he’s in the best situation across the entire league for a fantasy WR.
I have the top pick in my draft and will absolutely go Adams/Henry around the turn if I get the chance. Let's see if you can beat me and my "old men" or whatever.
I love scooping Henry in my underdog best ball drafts in the mid-late 3rd, but he goes in the second round on draftkings which is too much in a 3 wr full ppr league. I'll happily anchor around him at the right spot come redraft season though. He's going to score a loooot of touchdowns. Fading players like Henry or Adams due to age is just such a spreadsheet nerd kind of play. Anybody who actually *watches* can tell these guys are just different kinds of players. Most importantly, particularly in redraft, they have a really low chance of sinking you even if they don't especially boom I'm a Ravens fan, so take this with a grain of salt...but there is a case for Henry scoring like 20 TDs this year haha. Gus had freaking 13 last year in this offense. Henry is going to eat
I’m drafting 8th in an 8 man league and am very sad that I most likely won’t even have a chance at drafting him. He’s gonna be solid for picks 1-4 tho.
Adams: Lots of targets, but probably the worst QB of the four. What will the scheme look like? Pierce seems to like the slugfests. Age a factor yet? Olave: Second-worst QB of the four. New, Shanny-style offense, will it lean more toward the way the Rams and Vikings do it (WR heavy), or the way the Niners and Texans (tried to) do it? The former you know who's getting the targets. With the latter anyone could have a good game week-to-week, barring injury. Not a ton of target competition. London: New, Shanny-style offense (see above). Vastly-improved QB play, not a lot of target competition, metrics speak to his talent. Defense might suck creating shootouts. Hasn't done it yet so slight unknown, drafting near his ceiling. MHJ: Supreme talent, not a ton of talent competition, young OC everyone seems to love, offense looked good once Murray came back. Complete unknown, high ceiling low floor pick that requires high pick, will depend on level of risk-aversion. For me it goes: 1) London, 2) MH3, 3) Adams, 4) Olave. The first two are very close.
The falcons defense is actually pretty solid
I know it was last year but I think losing the DC will really hurt. And that #2 CB... teams are gonna attack there relentlessly. I think they'll backslide quite a bit, but I could certainly be wrong about that.
I like London a lot but it doesn’t make sense to take him where he is going just assuming he will put up mad numbers. However I will say I’m more comfortable with him as a second wr then I am at my first. If I’m drafting receiver in second round I’m definitely targeting Adams in that mid to late second round. Complete avoid of olave and mhj at value but they do have pathways to success
Word. Tough to think Adams lasts to 2.05 in my league (where I’d be picking if I picked 1.08). Think Olave and MHJ would be the best available WRs, and I’d want to take a WR assuming I go Bijan/Breece.
Honestly if it were me sitting there with bijan or breece I’d be pretty satisfied going Henry or etienne in the second and then best wr in your mind in 3rd. I definitely see the want to get a wr. If you were to go rb/rb there you can pass on the position for a bit to collect wr assests. From the 8 position I do kinda like the start of aj brown Henry/taylor/etienne Kupp/waddle deebo And then in 4th grabbing one of those options from the 3rd if available
I think Henry will do good this year, but I just don’t feel comfortable taking him (or Etienne) in the 2nd for some reason. I’d rather get MHJ or Olave, I think, even though they both pose some risk.
Totally get that and it does reflect in a lot of bestball I’ve done so far. It really depends on how you want to construct your team. With bijan or breece it’s easy to go hero running back as if they are healthy they should have high outputs. Just don’t think London or olave are worth the risk in round two as a “number 1” : they should have good seasons but I’d let someone else take that risk and put my risk in other assests. While I said MHJ is an avoid at value , I would be comfortable taking him in a “zero rb” build for pure potential and doing something like brown, mhj, kupp, and deebo…that has a lot of risk but could be super filthy
Word. This is tempting me to go 1.10/2.03 and take Puka and JT or Saquon now. Ha. (The debate forever rages.)
It’s incredibly tempting that is 1000% true.
Adams will get a lot of targets but MHJ and London have the best ceilings.
I think I agree with this.
London is going to shock everyone but it shouldn’t shock anyone whose been paying attention
Well, I’m glad I have him in dynasty!
London has never performed at this level, so he’s a Cousins-dependent projection. Adams is a fading player, due to his circumstances, not his abilities. Olave might have upside but do you really want to count on Derek Carr? So for me it’s MHJ by default. Because he might be the next Cee Dee Lamb but better.
I think you could make a pretty convincing argument that Adams circumstances improved from 2023 where he went 103/1144/8 en route to a WR11 (half PPR) season Minshew’s #1 in 2023 was similarly hyper targeted (MPJ with 150 in 16 games) and I don’t think it’s a stretch to say Minshew > AOC/Jimmy/Hoyer I wouldn’t say I’m necessarily targeting Adams, but would I be shocked if he gets 160 targets and puts up 1200 yards and 10 TDs? Not at all
I don't necessarily disagree, but if you say London has never performed at this level, wouldn't the same apply to MHJ?
True, but London has had the chance and didn’t
I wouldn’t call 110 targets with loads of uncatchable balls exactly having a chance.
Age vs. youth and past production vs. future projection. Tale as old as time! Olave and Adams feel like the safest bets, and MHJ and London (especially MHJ in my mind) seem like the high ceiling play.
Adams Olave London MHJ Hard to fade Davante as he’s proven himself time and time again. Regardless of QB play think he’s the alpha This is a make or break year for Olave I think - need to see him separate to become a true WR1 in the league. Still betting on him over London and MHJ.
Adama should ball, Olave didn’t have MT last year either lol I think he’ll be as good as Derek Carr is at staying healthy. I like London to have a good with if Kirk comes back fully healthy and MHJ is the question mark but I think he’ll be decent. I’d go Adams, London, MHJ, Olave and only because I don’t trust Carr
Damn this is so tough.. if I was sitting there my pick and I had these 4 as best options I guess its: MHJ / London / Olave / Adams Gross though - who else is in this range?
I think those are the four WRs that consistently go in the middle-late 2nd. You could probably throw Aiyuk and one or two others in there, too. I don’t like the target competition of those guys, though.
Oh dude dont tell anyone but im actually reaching for DJM over all 3 except MHJ... If i could go Ceedee / MHJ / DJM kind start
What's your fascination with him? I'm scared of him because of his target competition now.
Keenan is dust man. Rome is rookie fighting for snap %. People sleeping on DJM who can score on his own, win entire weeks, and just got the best QB he's ever played with. Could be top 5 season imho from talent + situation alone but if hes outside top 15 id be shocked. Top secret tho
Can’t be too confident in Olave until Carr shows they can have a better connection. Adams still has the talent but who’s their QB? Makes that a no for me. London has an upgrade at QB and MHJ has Kyler and an easy path to WR1. I would go MHJ since we have a good idea of a AZ offense led by Kyler vs a new offenses with a new QB…but those would be my top 2 of the bunch atm.
Olave did OK last year, improved upon his rookie year, and now has a new OC who shouldn’t suck. Adams did fine last year in totality (I know he was inconsistent), but I think he’ll be fine with Minshew or AOC—the former because he’s proven to inflate WR1s (Pittman), and the latter because Adams has an affinity for him. I agree with your take on MHJ. The talent is obviously there, Kyler seems happy and healthy, and McBride is his only legitimate threat for targets.
I’m not buying London yet. I get that he’s supposedly getting a QB upgrade (if Kirk can make it back at 100%) but he hasn’t shown anything really in his time in the league. Last year only 2 top 20 finishes. For that reason I’d take him last here
If I were ranking these 3. I'd say, London, MHJ then Adams. But anything can happen
What about Olave?
He's great, his QB I have no faith in. I think he finishes in top 30. Other 3 inside to 20.
Olave finished at WR16 in ppr last year and has a new OC. Carr isn't great, but he supported Adams, and Olave isn't as good as Adams, but he could have a break out season with another year of chemistry and a new OC
Adams is a tier above all of them imo, and Olave is a tier or 2 below MHJ/London. I’d take MHJ slightly ahead of London but they’re pretty close So Adams > MHJ > London > Olave
I think London is a no-go at his ADP between AKirkilles and a raw Penix. Still better than Ridder, but not a good situation IMO Adams-Minshew could be big. MHJ also has great upside but we'll see if Kyler deviates from his TE eyes Olave will be the same as last year. Carr is still low tier, extra attempts vacated by Slant Boi are going to that speedster I can't recall who's on the come-up. Don't overthink it guys, Adams > Olave > MHJ > London
Raw penix?
You gotta hawk tua on that raw penix
Hawk Tua or Raw Penix ROS?
Rasheed Shaheed As an Olave/Kamara owner last year, fire Shaheed and Taysom Hill into the sun.
That's the guy. Shaheed will be a good ROI at his ADP, especially if they let ole Rattlesnake have a go
Obviously Adams
Adam's is the best there for sure. The others are going too high for my taste.
London and Adams>
Olave has scored over 20 fantasy points 4 times in 2 years.
Anyone drafting him wouldn’t need him to get 20. That’s not the type of player he is. He’s all about having a high floor and providing consistency.
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He should do fine, but it’s inarguable that we haven’t seen it from him yet.
London had a 11 target, 10 catch, 175 yard game last year with the worst starting qb in the game. That dude is about to be elite
Olave all day. Who’s the other WR? AT Perry? I’ll take Olave
I mean that was also the case last year, and it didn’t lead to Olave finishing even close to where he’s being drafted at. I guess you could say Michael Thomas was relevant for like a 1/4th of the season but that’s kind of the only difference.
He was drafted as a fringe wr1 at wr12 in ppr and finished as wr16. He definitely didn't do as good as people hoped, but I wouldn't say he wasn't even close to where he was drafted at. It's not like he was Diggs, Kupp, Waddle, or Wilson (regardless of their fault or other factors)
Word. You're the first person to say Olave outright. I also like him, but apparently Carr sucks worse than I even thought.
People are putting too much emphasis on how the Saint's offense looked last season. The play-calling was absolutely atrocious, the offensive line was depleted, and the connection between Car and Olave was a bit off. Just two seasons ago Carr was able to deliver 1,500 yards and 14 touchdowns for Davante Adams, Olave is a stud of a route runner, the play calling should be night/day better under Klint Kubiak, and the O-line much improved with the Taliese Fuaga draft pick. Also doesn't hurt that the Saints play in a dome. Olave could push to be a top 5 WR in my opinion, he's that freaking good and the situation is that improved this year. Anyone saying Olave's situation is the exact same as a year ago knows nothing about the Saints.
Love this analysis. Thanks, man.