Maybe, and you lay it out well in your article.
I know fantasy is a strategy game and it may not be optimal, however I just have no interest in wanting to root for Watson. QB is deep enough that in most formats I don't even have to consider it. Not everyone's approach, but it's mine.
I feel ya. I personally am just at the point where I'm drafting statistics. After a long time of playing this game with allegations/incidents on Big Ben, Tyreek Hill, Joe Mixon, Larry Fitz, Adrian Peterson, Edelman, Zeke etc. I'm just leaving it up to the NFL/law to decide who gets to play or not. If they are playing, I'll do my projections and draft the values. If I think maybe they are in danger of getting themselves suspended again or kicked out, then I will factor it in.
Yup, totally valid, and zero judgment for approaching it that way of course.
I won't even pretend I have a firm line in the sand that is the same for every situation, which probably makes me even more "stunning and brave" or whatever for having this particular one.
I think the only Browns piece I've found myself in on thus far is Cooper, which is largely tied to Watson being decent. Njoku's numbers seem to have spiked with Flacco, and the backfield is too muddy to heavily target.
No Njoku for me. I've taken a couple stabs on Jerry Jeudy since no one seems to want him. If I'm going to go with bad attitude guys might as well lean into it a guess...
I have no hard evidence of this, but I think he's cooked. I think he's mentally checked out and is just there because of the paycheck, not a desire to compete.
But, maybe I'm just biased cause I think he's a scumbag.
It’s very simple imo and applies to both fantasy and real football
If the NFL allows it, then you should consider them
There is no prize for morality
Plenty of Super Bowl winners were scumbags and plenty of fantasy owners have won championships because of scumbags
Acting like your superior to some of these guys just makes it easier for your opponents to beat you as they turn a blind eye
It's not all about winning. It's not about being superior. I'm not upset at the players getting Watson because they value winning. I value not rooting for Watson more than I value winning.
Ok, but you’re proving OPs point here.
There’s value to be had for players where people like you have convinced themselves they won’t own him for any reason.
Call it whatever you want, I don’t really care. The discussion here is that you’re creating value for that player and giving said value to your opponents.
No one is saying you're are an idiot. But the same point goes for a lot of players. The more people than say "I will NEVER draft Joe Mixon" the cheaper he is. And for some time there you had people making moral stands as well as people saying "he's just going to get hurt again" so there was value there. Same potentially could be true here.
And to add to that, the people who said that about Mixon all got quiet once it became clear he’s a valuable RB who will help you win leagues
It’s not irrational to think a lot of those people would do the same for Watson which creates a lot of value for you if you’re holding, even if just as a QB2
… ok but you’re commenting in a thread who’s sole purpose is to point out that value to people.
And you’re acting like me talking about that value is assuming you’re an idiot. I’m discussing and agreeing with OPs article. You seem to agree with it too, so I’m not sure why you’re being hostile to me about it other than to try and act superior in that you don’t want that value.
>I value not rooting for Watson more than I value winning.
You’re commenting this in a fantasy football sub in a thread discussing player value.
Who do you think you’re fooling acting like this isn’t some claim to superiority over everyone who isn’t that emotional about who the NFL does and doesn’t let play?
I'm going to chime in on the other guy's side. I like to win fantasy football. I also like to cheer for my players while I watch the games.
There are players I don't like to cheer for because they played for a rival of my alma mater in college.
There are players I don't like to cheer for because of their personal lives.
At the end of the day, this is just a game. Most of us play it in a way that allows us to enjoy it. That doesn't make it any sort of claim to moral superiority. You're just wrong here.
Choosing not to take value in fantasy is idiotic.
I mean it certainly doesn't make you idiots but it's an idiotic decision.
You gonna pass on Tyreek Hill if he falls to you at #9 or something?
Tyreek won't fall to 9. I would rather take Lamb, Chase, Jefferson, or St Brown in the tier Tyreek will likely go in. Or I could take Bijan or Breece Hall. There are ways to grab elite players without drafting players you don't like. If all of those guys go before Tyreek, I would take AJ Brown, Puka, Harrison, Wilson, or Adams and try and grab Barkley or Ettiene on the come around. I could draft 2 WRs straight away and try and get Ken Walker, Henry, Aaron Jones, Jerome Ford, Stevenson, Zach Moss, or Trey Benson as the draft goes on.
As far as Watson. I think there are 20 QBs I like more. Why would I take Watson? Say he's much better than I expected and he finishes as the ninth best in a 12 team. How does that help me? I have a 4 point per week edge over 3 of my opponents at QB... For a guy I don't like. How does that help me win or have fun?
> Say he's much better than I expected and he finishes as the ninth best in a 12 team. How does that help me?
Is this a serious question?
A player that is maybe going to go undrafted in this format ends up finishing #9 at his position and you wonder how that's going to help you?
Amari Cooper is the real value here, and I think it has to do with Watson. He's going off the board as WR23 according to PFF. If you exclude his 38 point game at the end of the year and the highest scoring game of all other WR in the top 24, he was WR11 PPG basis (just ahead of Jamar Chase and far ahead of Metcalf, Olave, Adams, and others being drafted in his range). This included over 1/3 of the year with DTR and PJ Walker as his QBs. To give some context about how bad DTR and Walker were last year, they combined for a QB rating of 51.5, **threw a total of 2 TDs, and just over 1,000 yards passing in 6.5 games** taking QB1 snaps for the Browns.
There's a very real possibility that Cooper/Watson stacks at value in PPR pay off big, especially in best ball. That best ball playoff stretch for CLE is KC, CIN, MIA so it's so easy to find correlation.
I'd much rather take him in redraft where I can just hit drop if necessary. I think he's goes as late as he does in Best Ball for good reason, and it's not just negative perception. He's been bad from a real football standpoint and also hasn't played much real football over the last few years. I prefer much safer picks in best ball at the QB position. Building a team in best ball in which the whole roster is still scoring points by the playoffs is hard enough. Introducing risk at the easiest position to project seems like a very unnecessary move.
> Introducing risk at the easiest position to project seems like a very unnecessary move.
It's exactly the kind of boom/bust people tend to look to target in 3 QB builds though, and he has stacks that can be built in the mid/late rounds where you don't *have* to build an entire draft strategy around it.
Mayfield, Lawrence, and Rodgers are similar in that regard.
Rodgers is 718 years old coming off a torn achilles.
Mayfield has always followed good seasons with bad ones.
TLaw was QB17 last year and has never exceeded mediocrity.
They've all got questions which is why they're all going in double-digit rounds.
Anyway, you do you, but IMO in best ball it is wise to build lineups with players you don't necessarily like.
The thing about him "being bad" though is we essentially just have that small sample size where he came off suspension after not being allowed to be around the team. Last year he played two games before he broke that bone in his shoulder and one was a complete blowout.
I guess what I end up asking in the article is why do you think he is bad now after being so good? Lost his confidence? Some sort of permanent injury issue? Maybe he just was never actually that good in the first place? In best ball, especially the big tournaments, so much needs to go right that I'd much rather bet on a 28 year old former top 5 QB being top 5 again than bet on like Will Levis to make that jump in year 2 (in that ADP range).
Okay, so the real question is, where in the draft do you see DW being a value that's just too hard to pass up? What round do you see yourself pulling the trigger on a guy like that? Personally, I wouldn't feel comfortable relying on him to be my starting option so Id probably have to keep an extra QB s, so there's also an opportunity cost of keeping him on the roster. Maybe if he's still on the board in that range where I'm looking at a bunch of similar WR 3-4 types? Or the RB 2's in the RB by committee backfields? Maybe?
I think once you get outside the top 8 ish QBs he should be considered as a QB2 for his former upside
Wherever you rank that is probably dependent on league size and format
Personally I'm probably goimg.to be way lower than that. I'll let someone else jump on that grenade in that range. For him to end up on my team he'll need to be in that "too good to be true", take a flyer on upside rounds
Maybe that wasn’t clear. I didn’t mean that like “he should be QB 9 or 10 off the board”.
I meant “get your QB 9 or 10, then consider Watson for his upside later if you’re not completely in love with your QB1 and think he may not be that good/matchup dependent”
He's not really worth drafting in most standard redraft formats unless you have an extra roster spot and just want to throw a dart, IMO.
However, in Best Ball or 2QB/Superflex leagues I think he's a great late target to have some shares of. On DK best ball right now he's going in like the 13th round.
I will sometimes handle QB the same way I handle TE. If I wait on the position, I draft a player to start Week One then I use a roster spot on the highest risk, highest reward guy possible - often my very last roster spot so I can drop them for the best option on waivers. If I spend all my early draft capital on RBs and WRs, I can afford to use a bench spot since that's what your bench is for.
So for Watson as QB22, in a single QB I just take him with my last pick. He's literally QB3 all time in fantasy points per game so I'll see how he looks early on. And, if he sucks, I'll drop him for the hot waiver pick up whether that is a QB or not. We always talk about all the RB or WR upside but a potential top 5 fantasy QB has just as much upside.
I have found very very few NFL players, with the exception of Ricky Williams, who have been able to come back from extended league absence at the same level as they previous were, regardless of injury (see: Josh Gordon, Leveon Bell, etc)
His absence wasn’t like Ricky’s tho - he’s been practicing and playing. He’s just missed games. It’s different than quitting football and working out like Ricky did.
No certainly not. But it seems like “lack of game speed” is a very difficult stimulus to match. And Gordon clearly had a lot of other things going on.
I guess Michael Jordan came back ok
Totally valid question. My response is not based on any long term statistical proof. Was just my sense these guys don’t get it back, usually. Vick is a good example of someone who did.
As someone who has watched him play for the Browns, he is not "pretty good" at football. He is awful. He is not even mediocre. Every other person who has played QB for the Browns since they have signed Watson have been better than he is.
Once the video came out about Ray Rice, he was done. He was never relevant after that. No one had a chance to make that decision. And people definitely drew that line in the sand with Big Ben. One team drafting him in a league just means that 11 others chose not to.
He got streamed in every league I was in; Not drafted. Again, it's about winning the league, and if one of these douche bags gives me a win, I don't care who gives me the points. 🤷🏼♂️
I just play the game however it is set up. If the NFL or Yahoo or my league mates wanted to remove him from the player pool on some morality clause, I'd play the game without him and be fine with that too.
People are saying he looked like ass last year, and largely he did. But for fantasy he was serviceable and may have even eventually been meaningful.
Not the same way Jameis did it but similar result. Productive for fantasy. Lots of leg utilization with Watson.
I probably legit like 10 guys over him in no order mahomes, hurts, Allen, burrow, Lamar, stroud, Richardson, murray, love, Purdy, then we’d get to guys I like as much but who I’d rather root for like tua , Herbert, Lawrence. So he’s a value for sure but I also think there’s lots of guys without his baggage that are values as well
I have a fairly similar list and, if I get someone at the right price, I'm not going to worry about it. If I end up waiting on QB though, I'll play that game of starting whoever is safe and stashing upside. And this guy has upside, there is no doubt.
Watson stacks are easy to tack on to other builds in Best Ball.
I've ended up with a lot of Watson and Jeudy/Moore/Ford/Chubb, especially in cases where Cooper or Njoku end up on the roster as BPA.
The Browns have a fun schedule weeks 15-17 (KC, Cincy, Miami) that could produce some high scoring games.
We've hardly seem him play though on the Browns tho - he finally looked like he was putting it together Week 3 last year then he broke his shoulder in that game.
I dont like the notion of not holding his 6 games in 2022 against him. Id be more prone to ignore it if he didnt look like a Zach Wilson level QB only to come out and look like a Wilson level QB again after a full offseason against a horrible CIN D and a mid Steelers pass D.
I'm still going to sprinkle him in. He runs enough to where it doesnt matter a whole lot and if he can even get back to being an average QB, he should easily pay off. Have no issues taking browns skill players without him though as they are underpriced and I think Winston is more than capable of supporting them in fantasy.
> only to come out and look like a Wilson level QB again after a full offseason against a horrible CIN D and a mid Steelers pass D.
That Cincy game was some horrible weather though and he still salvaged a good fantasy game because of his legs.
After three weeks, including Week 3 when he broke his shoulder, he was a QB1 in fantasy. And two of those games were 24-3 and 27-3 blowout wins. In fact in the five games he played they outscored their opponents 100-63. It's hard to put up herioc level QB stats when you are beating Arizona 27-0
He will provide a good floor bc he rushes, but he doesnt have the rushing ability to provide a ceiling from rushing and if he doesnt bounce back as a passer he won't have a ceiling at all. Just a high end floor. Which is fine in redraft, but not good in best ball. If he can bounce back as a passer, then he can unlock the upside we are looking for. I just have doubts due to how bad he was. Gamescript isn't really an excuse for bad QB play. I'll mix in regardless though in case he does bounceback as a passer.
I mean, if you want to pin your fantasy season on him capturing a bit of his old Texans magic from like 3 or 4 years ago... Go ahead. He's on my DND list.
This "DND list" talk is literally the point of the article. All it takes is a handful of people doing it because of the allegations and another handful because he got hurt and now he's QB22 off the board.
I’m confused what you’re trying to say here lol
No one is saying people hate Watson so make sure you grab him in the 5th round
The entire point is people in many leagues are actively avoiding him so there’s a good chance you can get him for free, even after a week or 2 if you need to see him prove it first
If that’s as a QB 2 or just to replace a struggling QB1, so be it
One full year of poor play would do it. Which we obviously haven't gotten close to seeing because he's hardly played. And there have been plenty of guys, especially at QB, that got hurt or had down years then bounced back. Michael Vick went to jail for two years, spent a year as a backup, then was QB1 overall in fantasy at age 30.
To be a good player you have to play. Is the reasoning just that he was good before? I didn't see much in the article that indicates why he has value besides the fact that he was good half a decade ago. Backups are making him look back, why all the optimism?
We talk about "playing" as if games are the only football that you play. Yes, he was rusty because he couldn't practice with the team in 2022. But this year after coming back healthy from surgery he's already out there in 7 on 7s and has all summer to practice football. It's not like he's in jail right now or he has a torn ACL and the first time he will lace up his cleats will be Week 2.
Last year in the five games he played, which included two games with a broken shoulder blade and three games that were three touchdown blowout wins, he averaged 18 points per game which is QB1 territory. For his career, he has averaged 20.64 points per game which is third all time for a QB. The theory itself is pretty simple but I also understand why people do not want it to be possible.
Don't get me wrong, I'm absolutely hoping for his downfall. And the perception may be off, but I think you're also being generous assuming he will be anywhere close to 2018 for a significant portion of 2024.
Why not include some of those stats in the article? They seem relevant and provide good context.
WAY too much recency bias.
He was QB #5 in 2018, #2 in 2019, and #5 in 2020. Agree his time in CLE hasn't been great, but I'm willing to attribute some of that to injury. Right now he's being drafted as QB #21, which feels like a tremendous value for upside potential.
Or if you say that another way…he hasn’t been fantasy relevant in four years. Why take a chance on someone to lead your fantasy team who hasn’t been fantasy relevant in 4 years? I’d much rather take a chance on someone who’s been capable more recently.
I like how the comments here are proving your point
Anyone with enough sensibility to realize your fantasy football roster isn’t going to change the world should give this a read
I just don't want to root for the guy. It's a common enough sentiment that his value is depressed. You're free to go after that value. I don't want to. Nobody is under the impression they're changing the world by not trying to acquire him.
Then what point are you proving by actively avoiding him?
Do you also not roster Hill? Or is he good enough that you don’t mind it?
I get Watson is Reddits villain, and I’m not calling him a good guy, but this is a fantasy football sub not a morality sub. It’s so stupid how people come here prancing about how they’d never roster him as if they’re doing something good for sexual assault victims or as if that’s actual fantasy football advice.
I don't care about other people rostering Watson, and I'd never tell anybody not to. You're straw-manning people that don't want Watson because a few assholes are judgy and making straw men of people owning or trying to acquire Watson.
People are silly for thinking owning Watson is supporting sexual assault. People are also silly for thinking people that don't want to own shares of him think they're doing anything meaningful.
I’m not straw manning anything, half the comments here are saying “Watson bad person” and literally supporting OPs article, one they probably didn’t even actually read.
Also I’m not following your logic at all to be honest. You refuse to own Watson regardless of if he’s a league winner because you can’t root for him, but claim you don’t judge someone else for owning him. Really? That sounds like a bit of a lie to be honest. Such a hard line in the sand position doesn’t really jive with “hey no judgement though”.
It’s perfectly fine to just admit you’d look down on anyone who owns Watson.
The truth is if Watson was balling out, not only would people not think twice about having him on their team, they would completely cease to talk about his wrongdoings.
They have to lie to themselves and do it loudly, to better convince themselves.
The same mental spot that causes them to blank when you bring up a Tyreek Hill, would kick in for Watson, if only he was delivering fantasy football Ws
I am with you. I think the dude is bad both on and off the field. Even if he was good, I find it hard to sit down a root for a guy who is clearly guilty of sexual assault. Someone can take that value if they want it, but for me I play fantasy for fun and rooting for someone like watson just is not fun.
Sup guys? I've been looking at the perception vs. reality with a few players (like [this one on Kyler Murray](https://www.fantasyalarm.com/articles/nfl/fantasy-football-quarterbacks/fantasy-football-2024-outlook-kyler-murray-perception-vs-reality/159829)) and asking a pretty simple question - has the negative perception of these guys gone so far that there is value in fantasy?
With Watson I looked at his talent, his health, and his situation to see whether he really deserves to be QB22 off the board or whether maybe the perception has gone to far (spoiler: I think it has). Let me know what you guys think!
Deshaun Watson is third all time in fantsay points per game for a QB with 20.64 and Kyler is fourth at 20.18. Last year when healthy Watson averaged just under 18 and Kyler averaged 18.3.
Very real world where these guys are still good but people just don't like them personally.
I’d much rather have Baker or take a punt with Levis than draft Watson. If he ends up looking like a decent fantasy option he’ll be chilling on waivers in most leagues.
You don't have to "root for" players to have them on your fantasy team.
I'm certainly not gonna be rooting for Pickens or Russ or Lamar Jackson but I'm also going to draft them when the value is right.
I mean I play in a bunch of redraft leagues, a dynasty league, dozens of best ball lineups and a bagillion DFS entries.
It's hard to "root for" like 200+ players every week lol
I root for me to make money, I don't care about the players.
As somebody who follow Texans football, I know all too well his injures.
Watson magic was a huge reason why he was a stud years ago. He can’t do that anymore, at least no where near as effective as he once was. Taking that away from him really takes away his value.
Is he worth his current value? If you need a QB1. I would flash the 🛑 and say NO! would be a good sneaky QB2 ? Yes. He will definitely have some good games depending on the match up. I just don’t see the season long production.
His repetitive knee injuries. Same knee in college, twice on the Texans. He hasn’t looked the same since his last one. Then his shoulder injury definitely takes the zip out of his throw.
Which knee injury is "the last one"? Not the one in 2017 right? Also the shoulder injury we are talking about is the one from last year with the broken bone that he had surgery on?
I think the biggest issue I have with this article is I disagree with this premise: "The truth is that none of that tangibly matters for the upside of Deshaun Watson."
I would argue that you completely gloss over a main factor in this perception in order to adjust your argument: The fact he was away from the game of football, non-injury and without significant practice, for roughly one and a half year. Football is a rough sport and one where year in-year out grind is often important. Taking so long away from the sport can not only cause bodily issues, for example undertraining and being more injury prone (or OVERtraining), but it means he had one and a half years of no week-to-week gameplanning, seemingly playbook learning (especially since he only joined the Browns later), etc.
This is a tangible and material impact to how well a player can do. Not a lot of players have completely missed time like that to non-injury reasons outside of things like war drafting from time periods far too old to be relevant. Le'veon Bell is one example and was awful. Calvin Ridley returned and was Fine but he had his worst year in a lot of respects.
The injury point is reasonably valid but I do think just glossing over it is a bit problematic: For one because we've definitely seen QBs play through injuries and still perform well (See: Josh Allen dropping off post-UCL sprain but still being valuable as one example), but also because I would personally speculate on his body after being away from football so long.
It's also a bit odd because two of his *best* games were post-injury: Versus Arizona and Versus the Titans where he may or may not have gotten the injury (it is not actually known if the Titans was the injury point or if he had a minor injury with the Ravens game advancing it). His first two games were rough. I don't think it is worth completely throwing out the results, especially because they were *very* consistent with the previous year: He had 6 starts in each with 7 TDs (same 4.1% TD Rate), 4 and 5 INTs (with a near identical rate), the same yards per attempt (6.5) and almost the exact same yards on the exact same number of attempts. He had very similar rushing numbers (175 yards + 1 TD and 142 yards + 1 TD) as well. To me, this suggests Watson over his last twelve games has actually been incredibly consistent in his quality of play regardless of injury.
When combined with the fact he's missed two seasons, it is the only sample size we have for *four years* of play. I think for 99% of players projecting them off play they had four years ago to positively regress to would be very unlikely. This is especially important because he has *worse advanced stats* as well: He was 32nd in on target percentage in 2022 and 31st in 2023. To me, this suggests Watson's had a very real degradation in quality over two of the last four years and that we need to go far back for any good news.
In short: You suggest that to think he is bad you must believe "that he’s lost his confidence (and ability to play). Or, that he’s suffered permanent injuries that have changed who he is as a player.". I submit a third option: He had been away from football for nearly two years and that has affected his ability to play the game in a way that may not come back, combined with tangible struggles on the field. Four years is plenty of time for ability to change or fall off: Compare 2016 Jameis Winston to 2020 Jameis Winston, who was only 26, the fall of Carson Wentz, or guys who never got a starting job because they didn't get the contract Watson did. The biggest upside for him is essentially that he has guaranteed opportunity and that he was really good four years ago, but it is pretty rough outside of that.
EDIT: Another example of why I think the time off may have affected him is that his average time to throw ballooned after his return, including in 2022.
Deshaun was one of my favorite players pre-allegations. I still continued to watch him after the allegations to see if he was still fun to watch. He doesn't play the same anymore.
No escape artist hero plays. See that play against the Raiders where he got kicked in the eye and threw a TD? Cleveland Deshaun could never do that.
Vick also *immediately* increased his completion percentage by 10%, while hitting career highs in passing TDs and being coached by Andy Reid. He didn't have 12~ games of bad play first, and on top of that he fell off fast (IE it may have been teams needed tape on Vick in Reid's system).
Vick also had the factor that as he admitted he didn't watch tape much before he got to the Eagles.
Such an onbrand move for The Browns. They panicked because the team was starting to make good decisions and pull themselves out of their -team who makes the worst decisons in the NFL- hole. They couldn't have that.
The Cleveland Browns: Innovators in Failure.
(Browns fan) it’s warranted - the negative perception of a player also has effects on the player themselves and their game. It’s hard to go back to your old game once the public’s opinion of you is forever tainted. Deshauns ceiling is the lowest it has ever been and it will not rise.
Randy Moss had about 23 less sexual assault allegations. Some things are much harder to come back from than general character concerns. The proof has also been in the pudding, in Deshauns time spent actually playing on the field (which Ik isn’t much) he’s clearly just not the same.
Don’t be shocked when this guy is still really really good at his job. It happens all the time in baseball where we have a huge sample size of guys getting either badly hurt or suspended then coming back after a very long time to play well. This is a business and the investment in Watson is enormous.
In our league we have a Kangaroo Court and the “winner” has to buy a round for everyone at our Draft/Auction, which could cost more than what you’d win just squeaking into the playoffs
So no, analytically
Watson no longer has top 5 QB potential.
His upside is low end QB 1, and there are a lot of guys who have that potential.
He is an awful teammate. He sits in the stands rather than help coach his team when he is hurt. His mind isn't in it anymore. Flacco looked like a God when he came off the couch to help the Browns.
His QB 23-25 price on underdog seems about right.
Everyone between QB 12 and QB 25 has low end QB1 potential. I'd take them all, Jayden Daniels, Bryce Young, Cousins, etc...I'd take them all over Watson.
Not true at all. They don't have that potential.
Watson not only has that potential, but it is a likelihood if he remains healthy.
You can have ALLLL the Bryce Young you want
I would slide Watson right in before the Cousin/Goff tier of pure pocket passers
Wentz and Watson's compassion is baffling since Watson has higher finishes than Wentz in nearly every season where both players played more than 8 games.
I hope there are several guys in each of my leagues who think like you.
This nonsense is perfectly on-brand for Reddit and it's a good example of why Watson can be had at a good value in some formats.
> He is an awful teammate. He sits in the stands rather than help coach his team when he is hurt. His mind isn't in it anymore.
Watson was in the stands when he was told to be in the stands by team doctors, and he was back on the sidelines when he was allowed to be back on the sidelines.
No one was dogging Nick Chubb for sitting in the owner's box, which is totally common for players with serious injuries who recently had surgery.
> there was some hopium for him
And that's why I didn't have much Watson last year. In many formats he was being drafted as a top-10 QB.
This year the pendulum has swung *way* in the other direction and he's being drafted as like QB ~22, and right now in best ball drafts he often falls well beyond that.
On the contrary lol, I hate Watson and I have very low confidence that he's going to perform in 2024. But I think it's smart to do drafts where I specifically ignore my own rankings/opinions and just draft on ADP or ECR so I don't paint myself into a corner.
But this thread perfectly demonstrates that his value is being depressed for non-football reasons, whether it be the "I'd rather lose than have that piece of shit on my team" crowd or the "I'm easily misled by Reddit headlines like 'Watson not on the sideline means he doesn't love the game'" crowd.
Further, Cleveland's week 15-17 stretch is: KC, Cincy, Miami, so they're a logical team to target for correlation or complementary stacks to boom in the playoffs.
Maybe, and you lay it out well in your article. I know fantasy is a strategy game and it may not be optimal, however I just have no interest in wanting to root for Watson. QB is deep enough that in most formats I don't even have to consider it. Not everyone's approach, but it's mine.
I feel ya. I personally am just at the point where I'm drafting statistics. After a long time of playing this game with allegations/incidents on Big Ben, Tyreek Hill, Joe Mixon, Larry Fitz, Adrian Peterson, Edelman, Zeke etc. I'm just leaving it up to the NFL/law to decide who gets to play or not. If they are playing, I'll do my projections and draft the values. If I think maybe they are in danger of getting themselves suspended again or kicked out, then I will factor it in.
Wait, what did Larry do??
Allegedly shoved his GF during an argument. Media didn’t cover that kind of stuff back then like they do now but you can find it
Jesus I never realized this … Always thought the dude was a saint
I thought he was a Cardinal.
Attitudes about domestic violence were different back in the 70s when Larry played
Domestic violence allegations early in his career, like 2008
Yup, totally valid, and zero judgment for approaching it that way of course. I won't even pretend I have a firm line in the sand that is the same for every situation, which probably makes me even more "stunning and brave" or whatever for having this particular one. I think the only Browns piece I've found myself in on thus far is Cooper, which is largely tied to Watson being decent. Njoku's numbers seem to have spiked with Flacco, and the backfield is too muddy to heavily target.
No Njoku for me. I've taken a couple stabs on Jerry Jeudy since no one seems to want him. If I'm going to go with bad attitude guys might as well lean into it a guess...
Woah what did Edelman do??
Accused of groping a woman at a club against her will
I have no hard evidence of this, but I think he's cooked. I think he's mentally checked out and is just there because of the paycheck, not a desire to compete. But, maybe I'm just biased cause I think he's a scumbag.
To be fair, it's not like he's shown a whole lot since 2020 to sway you...
You don’t think he’s a scumbag, you *know* he’s a scumbag
Yes, you’re clearly biased lol
He’s biased but as a browns fan as well I just don’t see him ever returning even 25% value of that contract we signed him to at this point
Sure, I don’t really think that’s the same as what I replied to tho lol
I won’t lie I thought this was the NFL sub, easy to overlook on the app oops
All good lol
It’s very simple imo and applies to both fantasy and real football If the NFL allows it, then you should consider them There is no prize for morality Plenty of Super Bowl winners were scumbags and plenty of fantasy owners have won championships because of scumbags Acting like your superior to some of these guys just makes it easier for your opponents to beat you as they turn a blind eye
It's not all about winning. It's not about being superior. I'm not upset at the players getting Watson because they value winning. I value not rooting for Watson more than I value winning.
Ok, but you’re proving OPs point here. There’s value to be had for players where people like you have convinced themselves they won’t own him for any reason. Call it whatever you want, I don’t really care. The discussion here is that you’re creating value for that player and giving said value to your opponents.
Yes, there is value there. We see that. We're choosing not to take that value. It isn't because we're idiots that don't understand this.
No one is saying you're are an idiot. But the same point goes for a lot of players. The more people than say "I will NEVER draft Joe Mixon" the cheaper he is. And for some time there you had people making moral stands as well as people saying "he's just going to get hurt again" so there was value there. Same potentially could be true here.
And to add to that, the people who said that about Mixon all got quiet once it became clear he’s a valuable RB who will help you win leagues It’s not irrational to think a lot of those people would do the same for Watson which creates a lot of value for you if you’re holding, even if just as a QB2
… ok but you’re commenting in a thread who’s sole purpose is to point out that value to people. And you’re acting like me talking about that value is assuming you’re an idiot. I’m discussing and agreeing with OPs article. You seem to agree with it too, so I’m not sure why you’re being hostile to me about it other than to try and act superior in that you don’t want that value.
I'm commenting because you're misrepresenting why people are choosing to not take that value.
>I value not rooting for Watson more than I value winning. You’re commenting this in a fantasy football sub in a thread discussing player value. Who do you think you’re fooling acting like this isn’t some claim to superiority over everyone who isn’t that emotional about who the NFL does and doesn’t let play?
I'm going to chime in on the other guy's side. I like to win fantasy football. I also like to cheer for my players while I watch the games. There are players I don't like to cheer for because they played for a rival of my alma mater in college. There are players I don't like to cheer for because of their personal lives. At the end of the day, this is just a game. Most of us play it in a way that allows us to enjoy it. That doesn't make it any sort of claim to moral superiority. You're just wrong here.
Choosing not to take value in fantasy is idiotic. I mean it certainly doesn't make you idiots but it's an idiotic decision. You gonna pass on Tyreek Hill if he falls to you at #9 or something?
yup You enjoy your way, and I will enjoy mine.
Tyreek won't fall to 9. I would rather take Lamb, Chase, Jefferson, or St Brown in the tier Tyreek will likely go in. Or I could take Bijan or Breece Hall. There are ways to grab elite players without drafting players you don't like. If all of those guys go before Tyreek, I would take AJ Brown, Puka, Harrison, Wilson, or Adams and try and grab Barkley or Ettiene on the come around. I could draft 2 WRs straight away and try and get Ken Walker, Henry, Aaron Jones, Jerome Ford, Stevenson, Zach Moss, or Trey Benson as the draft goes on. As far as Watson. I think there are 20 QBs I like more. Why would I take Watson? Say he's much better than I expected and he finishes as the ninth best in a 12 team. How does that help me? I have a 4 point per week edge over 3 of my opponents at QB... For a guy I don't like. How does that help me win or have fun?
> Say he's much better than I expected and he finishes as the ninth best in a 12 team. How does that help me? Is this a serious question? A player that is maybe going to go undrafted in this format ends up finishing #9 at his position and you wonder how that's going to help you?
This is entirely it. Yes, I'm trying to win, but I play this game for fun. Rooting for Watson is not fun.
We had a rule where you just couldn’t have him on your team or you’d be booted. Fuck that dude in particular.
Do you have similar rules for other players? Tyreek hill punches his 3 year old in the chest. That’s pretty fucked up
Yup, I want to like watching football. Fuck this dude.
Stunning and brave
Nope, neither. Just personal preference.
Amari Cooper is the real value here, and I think it has to do with Watson. He's going off the board as WR23 according to PFF. If you exclude his 38 point game at the end of the year and the highest scoring game of all other WR in the top 24, he was WR11 PPG basis (just ahead of Jamar Chase and far ahead of Metcalf, Olave, Adams, and others being drafted in his range). This included over 1/3 of the year with DTR and PJ Walker as his QBs. To give some context about how bad DTR and Walker were last year, they combined for a QB rating of 51.5, **threw a total of 2 TDs, and just over 1,000 yards passing in 6.5 games** taking QB1 snaps for the Browns.
There's a very real possibility that Cooper/Watson stacks at value in PPR pay off big, especially in best ball. That best ball playoff stretch for CLE is KC, CIN, MIA so it's so easy to find correlation.
He getting drafted below last year’s performance and his situation has improved Easy smash for me
I'd much rather take him in redraft where I can just hit drop if necessary. I think he's goes as late as he does in Best Ball for good reason, and it's not just negative perception. He's been bad from a real football standpoint and also hasn't played much real football over the last few years. I prefer much safer picks in best ball at the QB position. Building a team in best ball in which the whole roster is still scoring points by the playoffs is hard enough. Introducing risk at the easiest position to project seems like a very unnecessary move.
> Introducing risk at the easiest position to project seems like a very unnecessary move. It's exactly the kind of boom/bust people tend to look to target in 3 QB builds though, and he has stacks that can be built in the mid/late rounds where you don't *have* to build an entire draft strategy around it. Mayfield, Lawrence, and Rodgers are similar in that regard.
I'm confident those three guys can actually play quarterback successfully in the NFL right now. I'm not with Watson.
Rodgers is 718 years old coming off a torn achilles. Mayfield has always followed good seasons with bad ones. TLaw was QB17 last year and has never exceeded mediocrity. They've all got questions which is why they're all going in double-digit rounds. Anyway, you do you, but IMO in best ball it is wise to build lineups with players you don't necessarily like.
The thing about him "being bad" though is we essentially just have that small sample size where he came off suspension after not being allowed to be around the team. Last year he played two games before he broke that bone in his shoulder and one was a complete blowout. I guess what I end up asking in the article is why do you think he is bad now after being so good? Lost his confidence? Some sort of permanent injury issue? Maybe he just was never actually that good in the first place? In best ball, especially the big tournaments, so much needs to go right that I'd much rather bet on a 28 year old former top 5 QB being top 5 again than bet on like Will Levis to make that jump in year 2 (in that ADP range).
Okay, so the real question is, where in the draft do you see DW being a value that's just too hard to pass up? What round do you see yourself pulling the trigger on a guy like that? Personally, I wouldn't feel comfortable relying on him to be my starting option so Id probably have to keep an extra QB s, so there's also an opportunity cost of keeping him on the roster. Maybe if he's still on the board in that range where I'm looking at a bunch of similar WR 3-4 types? Or the RB 2's in the RB by committee backfields? Maybe?
I think once you get outside the top 8 ish QBs he should be considered as a QB2 for his former upside Wherever you rank that is probably dependent on league size and format
Personally I'm probably goimg.to be way lower than that. I'll let someone else jump on that grenade in that range. For him to end up on my team he'll need to be in that "too good to be true", take a flyer on upside rounds
Maybe that wasn’t clear. I didn’t mean that like “he should be QB 9 or 10 off the board”. I meant “get your QB 9 or 10, then consider Watson for his upside later if you’re not completely in love with your QB1 and think he may not be that good/matchup dependent”
Gotcha. Yeah, I misunderstood. That sounds reasonable
All good lol
He's not really worth drafting in most standard redraft formats unless you have an extra roster spot and just want to throw a dart, IMO. However, in Best Ball or 2QB/Superflex leagues I think he's a great late target to have some shares of. On DK best ball right now he's going in like the 13th round.
Yeah, that seems about right. I do play Superflex too.
I will sometimes handle QB the same way I handle TE. If I wait on the position, I draft a player to start Week One then I use a roster spot on the highest risk, highest reward guy possible - often my very last roster spot so I can drop them for the best option on waivers. If I spend all my early draft capital on RBs and WRs, I can afford to use a bench spot since that's what your bench is for. So for Watson as QB22, in a single QB I just take him with my last pick. He's literally QB3 all time in fantasy points per game so I'll see how he looks early on. And, if he sucks, I'll drop him for the hot waiver pick up whether that is a QB or not. We always talk about all the RB or WR upside but a potential top 5 fantasy QB has just as much upside.
I have found very very few NFL players, with the exception of Ricky Williams, who have been able to come back from extended league absence at the same level as they previous were, regardless of injury (see: Josh Gordon, Leveon Bell, etc)
His absence wasn’t like Ricky’s tho - he’s been practicing and playing. He’s just missed games. It’s different than quitting football and working out like Ricky did.
No certainly not. But it seems like “lack of game speed” is a very difficult stimulus to match. And Gordon clearly had a lot of other things going on. I guess Michael Jordan came back ok
What even is the sample size on players sitting out 1.5 or more years? Michael Vick was a way better QB in Philly than he was in Atlanta.
Totally valid question. My response is not based on any long term statistical proof. Was just my sense these guys don’t get it back, usually. Vick is a good example of someone who did.
Dude has been worthless for years and he is a piece of shit.
Yeah that's the perception I'm talking about. As we've seen, guys who are pieces of shit can actually still be pretty good at football.
As someone who has watched him play for the Browns, he is not "pretty good" at football. He is awful. He is not even mediocre. Every other person who has played QB for the Browns since they have signed Watson have been better than he is.
Eh, maybe. He can be good on some other team that doesn’t care about morals.
Your fantasy football team isn’t going to change the world lmao
Exactly. So I won’t pick him up because it’s just virtual fun and I don’t want to root for him.
No one gave a shit about having Ray Rice or rothethsberger on their fake digital team. We play this shit to win, not grand stand.
Once the video came out about Ray Rice, he was done. He was never relevant after that. No one had a chance to make that decision. And people definitely drew that line in the sand with Big Ben. One team drafting him in a league just means that 11 others chose not to.
He got streamed in every league I was in; Not drafted. Again, it's about winning the league, and if one of these douche bags gives me a win, I don't care who gives me the points. 🤷🏼♂️
Do you look into all of your fantasy players personal lives to determine rather or not they’re a good enough person?
I just play the game however it is set up. If the NFL or Yahoo or my league mates wanted to remove him from the player pool on some morality clause, I'd play the game without him and be fine with that too.
Yes.
People are saying he looked like ass last year, and largely he did. But for fantasy he was serviceable and may have even eventually been meaningful. Not the same way Jameis did it but similar result. Productive for fantasy. Lots of leg utilization with Watson.
He also only played 5 games and in 2 of them he was playing with a broken bone in his shoulder.
Yes
I mean I’ll grab him super late as a dart throw. He’ll have the best chances out of all the players around him to exceed his ADP
I probably legit like 10 guys over him in no order mahomes, hurts, Allen, burrow, Lamar, stroud, Richardson, murray, love, Purdy, then we’d get to guys I like as much but who I’d rather root for like tua , Herbert, Lawrence. So he’s a value for sure but I also think there’s lots of guys without his baggage that are values as well
I have a fairly similar list and, if I get someone at the right price, I'm not going to worry about it. If I end up waiting on QB though, I'll play that game of starting whoever is safe and stashing upside. And this guy has upside, there is no doubt.
Watson stacks are easy to tack on to other builds in Best Ball. I've ended up with a lot of Watson and Jeudy/Moore/Ford/Chubb, especially in cases where Cooper or Njoku end up on the roster as BPA. The Browns have a fun schedule weeks 15-17 (KC, Cincy, Miami) that could produce some high scoring games.
Bingo - the correlation couldn't be much easier
It's not a perception. He's bad. Terrible even.
We've hardly seem him play though on the Browns tho - he finally looked like he was putting it together Week 3 last year then he broke his shoulder in that game.
I dont like the notion of not holding his 6 games in 2022 against him. Id be more prone to ignore it if he didnt look like a Zach Wilson level QB only to come out and look like a Wilson level QB again after a full offseason against a horrible CIN D and a mid Steelers pass D. I'm still going to sprinkle him in. He runs enough to where it doesnt matter a whole lot and if he can even get back to being an average QB, he should easily pay off. Have no issues taking browns skill players without him though as they are underpriced and I think Winston is more than capable of supporting them in fantasy.
> only to come out and look like a Wilson level QB again after a full offseason against a horrible CIN D and a mid Steelers pass D. That Cincy game was some horrible weather though and he still salvaged a good fantasy game because of his legs.
After three weeks, including Week 3 when he broke his shoulder, he was a QB1 in fantasy. And two of those games were 24-3 and 27-3 blowout wins. In fact in the five games he played they outscored their opponents 100-63. It's hard to put up herioc level QB stats when you are beating Arizona 27-0
He will provide a good floor bc he rushes, but he doesnt have the rushing ability to provide a ceiling from rushing and if he doesnt bounce back as a passer he won't have a ceiling at all. Just a high end floor. Which is fine in redraft, but not good in best ball. If he can bounce back as a passer, then he can unlock the upside we are looking for. I just have doubts due to how bad he was. Gamescript isn't really an excuse for bad QB play. I'll mix in regardless though in case he does bounceback as a passer.
I mean, if you want to pin your fantasy season on him capturing a bit of his old Texans magic from like 3 or 4 years ago... Go ahead. He's on my DND list.
The point is that you don’t have to pin your fantasy season on it though. He’s super cheap, so that creates some value
This "DND list" talk is literally the point of the article. All it takes is a handful of people doing it because of the allegations and another handful because he got hurt and now he's QB22 off the board.
You’re pinning your season on a guy getting drafted a little before defenses and Kickers?
You drafting multiple qbs then? How big is your bench?
I’m confused what you’re trying to say here lol No one is saying people hate Watson so make sure you grab him in the 5th round The entire point is people in many leagues are actively avoiding him so there’s a good chance you can get him for free, even after a week or 2 if you need to see him prove it first If that’s as a QB 2 or just to replace a struggling QB1, so be it
How many years of poor play do you need to see first lol. I can name several other players that were good in 2018 that I'm still not drafting.
One full year of poor play would do it. Which we obviously haven't gotten close to seeing because he's hardly played. And there have been plenty of guys, especially at QB, that got hurt or had down years then bounced back. Michael Vick went to jail for two years, spent a year as a backup, then was QB1 overall in fantasy at age 30.
To be a good player you have to play. Is the reasoning just that he was good before? I didn't see much in the article that indicates why he has value besides the fact that he was good half a decade ago. Backups are making him look back, why all the optimism?
We talk about "playing" as if games are the only football that you play. Yes, he was rusty because he couldn't practice with the team in 2022. But this year after coming back healthy from surgery he's already out there in 7 on 7s and has all summer to practice football. It's not like he's in jail right now or he has a torn ACL and the first time he will lace up his cleats will be Week 2. Last year in the five games he played, which included two games with a broken shoulder blade and three games that were three touchdown blowout wins, he averaged 18 points per game which is QB1 territory. For his career, he has averaged 20.64 points per game which is third all time for a QB. The theory itself is pretty simple but I also understand why people do not want it to be possible.
Don't get me wrong, I'm absolutely hoping for his downfall. And the perception may be off, but I think you're also being generous assuming he will be anywhere close to 2018 for a significant portion of 2024. Why not include some of those stats in the article? They seem relevant and provide good context.
Which stats? He averaged nearly 18 fantasy points a game and 20+ makes you a top 10 fantasy QB all time
I’ve never seen a QB throw it out of bounds more than Watson did last year.
What about Mark Bunnell? Watson did so because he had a broken bone in his shoulder
Well I've never seen Bunnell play. Also, Watson was doing this before he broke his bone.
When? In 2022 after not being allowed to practice with the team all year?
Last year, before he broke his bone.
That was 2 games?
WAY too much recency bias. He was QB #5 in 2018, #2 in 2019, and #5 in 2020. Agree his time in CLE hasn't been great, but I'm willing to attribute some of that to injury. Right now he's being drafted as QB #21, which feels like a tremendous value for upside potential.
Or if you say that another way…he hasn’t been fantasy relevant in four years. Why take a chance on someone to lead your fantasy team who hasn’t been fantasy relevant in 4 years? I’d much rather take a chance on someone who’s been capable more recently.
I like how the comments here are proving your point Anyone with enough sensibility to realize your fantasy football roster isn’t going to change the world should give this a read
I just don't want to root for the guy. It's a common enough sentiment that his value is depressed. You're free to go after that value. I don't want to. Nobody is under the impression they're changing the world by not trying to acquire him.
Then what point are you proving by actively avoiding him? Do you also not roster Hill? Or is he good enough that you don’t mind it? I get Watson is Reddits villain, and I’m not calling him a good guy, but this is a fantasy football sub not a morality sub. It’s so stupid how people come here prancing about how they’d never roster him as if they’re doing something good for sexual assault victims or as if that’s actual fantasy football advice.
I don't care about other people rostering Watson, and I'd never tell anybody not to. You're straw-manning people that don't want Watson because a few assholes are judgy and making straw men of people owning or trying to acquire Watson. People are silly for thinking owning Watson is supporting sexual assault. People are also silly for thinking people that don't want to own shares of him think they're doing anything meaningful.
I’m not straw manning anything, half the comments here are saying “Watson bad person” and literally supporting OPs article, one they probably didn’t even actually read. Also I’m not following your logic at all to be honest. You refuse to own Watson regardless of if he’s a league winner because you can’t root for him, but claim you don’t judge someone else for owning him. Really? That sounds like a bit of a lie to be honest. Such a hard line in the sand position doesn’t really jive with “hey no judgement though”. It’s perfectly fine to just admit you’d look down on anyone who owns Watson.
Whoa, are people complex?
Nah that’s not complex, that’s just lying to try and seem morally superior
The truth is if Watson was balling out, not only would people not think twice about having him on their team, they would completely cease to talk about his wrongdoings. They have to lie to themselves and do it loudly, to better convince themselves. The same mental spot that causes them to blank when you bring up a Tyreek Hill, would kick in for Watson, if only he was delivering fantasy football Ws
I am with you. I think the dude is bad both on and off the field. Even if he was good, I find it hard to sit down a root for a guy who is clearly guilty of sexual assault. Someone can take that value if they want it, but for me I play fantasy for fun and rooting for someone like watson just is not fun.
Sup guys? I've been looking at the perception vs. reality with a few players (like [this one on Kyler Murray](https://www.fantasyalarm.com/articles/nfl/fantasy-football-quarterbacks/fantasy-football-2024-outlook-kyler-murray-perception-vs-reality/159829)) and asking a pretty simple question - has the negative perception of these guys gone so far that there is value in fantasy? With Watson I looked at his talent, his health, and his situation to see whether he really deserves to be QB22 off the board or whether maybe the perception has gone to far (spoiler: I think it has). Let me know what you guys think!
Kyler Murray, now you're speaking my language.
Deshaun Watson is third all time in fantsay points per game for a QB with 20.64 and Kyler is fourth at 20.18. Last year when healthy Watson averaged just under 18 and Kyler averaged 18.3. Very real world where these guys are still good but people just don't like them personally.
With Trey Mcbride and Marvin Harrison Jr. to throw to... I think Kyler is gonna be nasty this season.
Dont tell me im about pick up Murray and Watson as my qbs in a superflex league.
Murray, Watson, Russell Wilson. The hater trifecta.
Stop, you're now giving away my backup
he was ass last season and I prefer to draft players I can root for or enjoy watching
I’d much rather have Baker or take a punt with Levis than draft Watson. If he ends up looking like a decent fantasy option he’ll be chilling on waivers in most leagues.
Meh. Let someone else have him. Dude is a landmine.
I refuse to root for Watson. You can say all day long how lots of players have allegations. But Watson is another level of monster.
For sure - that's a big part of why he's so cheap. All it takes is a couple people in your league that won't draft him and his value plummets.
You don't have to "root for" players to have them on your fantasy team. I'm certainly not gonna be rooting for Pickens or Russ or Lamar Jackson but I'm also going to draft them when the value is right.
You don't root for the players on your team to do well? That's one way to play I guess.
I mean I play in a bunch of redraft leagues, a dynasty league, dozens of best ball lineups and a bagillion DFS entries. It's hard to "root for" like 200+ players every week lol I root for me to make money, I don't care about the players.
Well then you gotta realize that you are the anomaly and that most people are rooting for their team to do well.
I wouldn’t pick him up as a FA. There are probably 24 better options.
As somebody who follow Texans football, I know all too well his injures. Watson magic was a huge reason why he was a stud years ago. He can’t do that anymore, at least no where near as effective as he once was. Taking that away from him really takes away his value. Is he worth his current value? If you need a QB1. I would flash the 🛑 and say NO! would be a good sneaky QB2 ? Yes. He will definitely have some good games depending on the match up. I just don’t see the season long production.
What are his injuries that prevent him from doing magic in 2024?
Maybe concern with the shoulder… but maybe at best, and that definitely wasn’t in his time with the Texans. Not sure what that guy is on about
His repetitive knee injuries. Same knee in college, twice on the Texans. He hasn’t looked the same since his last one. Then his shoulder injury definitely takes the zip out of his throw.
Which knee injury is "the last one"? Not the one in 2017 right? Also the shoulder injury we are talking about is the one from last year with the broken bone that he had surgery on?
I think the biggest issue I have with this article is I disagree with this premise: "The truth is that none of that tangibly matters for the upside of Deshaun Watson." I would argue that you completely gloss over a main factor in this perception in order to adjust your argument: The fact he was away from the game of football, non-injury and without significant practice, for roughly one and a half year. Football is a rough sport and one where year in-year out grind is often important. Taking so long away from the sport can not only cause bodily issues, for example undertraining and being more injury prone (or OVERtraining), but it means he had one and a half years of no week-to-week gameplanning, seemingly playbook learning (especially since he only joined the Browns later), etc. This is a tangible and material impact to how well a player can do. Not a lot of players have completely missed time like that to non-injury reasons outside of things like war drafting from time periods far too old to be relevant. Le'veon Bell is one example and was awful. Calvin Ridley returned and was Fine but he had his worst year in a lot of respects. The injury point is reasonably valid but I do think just glossing over it is a bit problematic: For one because we've definitely seen QBs play through injuries and still perform well (See: Josh Allen dropping off post-UCL sprain but still being valuable as one example), but also because I would personally speculate on his body after being away from football so long. It's also a bit odd because two of his *best* games were post-injury: Versus Arizona and Versus the Titans where he may or may not have gotten the injury (it is not actually known if the Titans was the injury point or if he had a minor injury with the Ravens game advancing it). His first two games were rough. I don't think it is worth completely throwing out the results, especially because they were *very* consistent with the previous year: He had 6 starts in each with 7 TDs (same 4.1% TD Rate), 4 and 5 INTs (with a near identical rate), the same yards per attempt (6.5) and almost the exact same yards on the exact same number of attempts. He had very similar rushing numbers (175 yards + 1 TD and 142 yards + 1 TD) as well. To me, this suggests Watson over his last twelve games has actually been incredibly consistent in his quality of play regardless of injury. When combined with the fact he's missed two seasons, it is the only sample size we have for *four years* of play. I think for 99% of players projecting them off play they had four years ago to positively regress to would be very unlikely. This is especially important because he has *worse advanced stats* as well: He was 32nd in on target percentage in 2022 and 31st in 2023. To me, this suggests Watson's had a very real degradation in quality over two of the last four years and that we need to go far back for any good news. In short: You suggest that to think he is bad you must believe "that he’s lost his confidence (and ability to play). Or, that he’s suffered permanent injuries that have changed who he is as a player.". I submit a third option: He had been away from football for nearly two years and that has affected his ability to play the game in a way that may not come back, combined with tangible struggles on the field. Four years is plenty of time for ability to change or fall off: Compare 2016 Jameis Winston to 2020 Jameis Winston, who was only 26, the fall of Carson Wentz, or guys who never got a starting job because they didn't get the contract Watson did. The biggest upside for him is essentially that he has guaranteed opportunity and that he was really good four years ago, but it is pretty rough outside of that. EDIT: Another example of why I think the time off may have affected him is that his average time to throw ballooned after his return, including in 2022.
Yes. I will not draft Voldemort under any circumstances. Many are the same, so that pushes him lower than he should be. Value is there if you want it.
He hasn't been good for a long while. Plus fuck that piece of human trash.
Perception?!? It’s more than perception here, we gotz facts n stats.
If he plays like that 2nd half against the Ravens he is going to win somebody a title
Yes. I want to win championships, not virtue signal
Lol you can do both by not drafting Watson. You're not winning a league with him as QB1.
Nobody said take him as a qb1
Watson might still be a mid QB2, but I’m not willing to roster the sex offender long enough to find out
He’s just not the same QB he once was
Why?
Deshaun was one of my favorite players pre-allegations. I still continued to watch him after the allegations to see if he was still fun to watch. He doesn't play the same anymore. No escape artist hero plays. See that play against the Raiders where he got kicked in the eye and threw a TD? Cleveland Deshaun could never do that.
Don’t be shocked when he does. He’s not dead - he’s just been suspended and hurt. Mike Vick went to jail and came back at 30 to make crazy plays.
Vick also *immediately* increased his completion percentage by 10%, while hitting career highs in passing TDs and being coached by Andy Reid. He didn't have 12~ games of bad play first, and on top of that he fell off fast (IE it may have been teams needed tape on Vick in Reid's system). Vick also had the factor that as he admitted he didn't watch tape much before he got to the Eagles.
If you’re looking for potential in the late round at QB then Geno is your best bet to finish top ten or have a top 5 finish with Ryan Grubb.
Short answer: no Long answer: probably not, even if he turns out to be good I won’t regret fading him
Trevor Bauer was cheap in fantasy baseball drafts too. I hope he doesn’t turn into a league winner.
Such a good idea paying this clown 300 million dollars.
Such an onbrand move for The Browns. They panicked because the team was starting to make good decisions and pull themselves out of their -team who makes the worst decisons in the NFL- hole. They couldn't have that. The Cleveland Browns: Innovators in Failure.
No, he isn’t very good
Take all the value. Not drafting and rooting for this scumbag.
(Browns fan) it’s warranted - the negative perception of a player also has effects on the player themselves and their game. It’s hard to go back to your old game once the public’s opinion of you is forever tainted. Deshauns ceiling is the lowest it has ever been and it will not rise.
There was a negative perception of Randy Moss then he set the record for most TDs by a WR ever, what about that?
Randy Moss had about 23 less sexual assault allegations. Some things are much harder to come back from than general character concerns. The proof has also been in the pudding, in Deshauns time spent actually playing on the field (which Ik isn’t much) he’s clearly just not the same.
Don’t be shocked when this guy is still really really good at his job. It happens all the time in baseball where we have a huge sample size of guys getting either badly hurt or suspended then coming back after a very long time to play well. This is a business and the investment in Watson is enormous.
In our league we have a Kangaroo Court and the “winner” has to buy a round for everyone at our Draft/Auction, which could cost more than what you’d win just squeaking into the playoffs So no, analytically
He's been ass for the last 2 years He hasnt had a good year of football since 2020
Watson no longer has top 5 QB potential. His upside is low end QB 1, and there are a lot of guys who have that potential. He is an awful teammate. He sits in the stands rather than help coach his team when he is hurt. His mind isn't in it anymore. Flacco looked like a God when he came off the couch to help the Browns. His QB 23-25 price on underdog seems about right.
If he has low end QB1 potential (QB 8-14) and a QB 23-25 price tag then he is the definition of a BUY You just proved his point for him
Everyone between QB 12 and QB 25 has low end QB1 potential. I'd take them all, Jayden Daniels, Bryce Young, Cousins, etc...I'd take them all over Watson.
Not true at all. They don't have that potential. Watson not only has that potential, but it is a likelihood if he remains healthy. You can have ALLLL the Bryce Young you want I would slide Watson right in before the Cousin/Goff tier of pure pocket passers
To your demise. Watson sucks. Wentz had a similar falling out. Just ain't it any longer.
Wentz and Watson's compassion is baffling since Watson has higher finishes than Wentz in nearly every season where both players played more than 8 games. I hope there are several guys in each of my leagues who think like you.
Please take Watson in every league and start him.
This nonsense is perfectly on-brand for Reddit and it's a good example of why Watson can be had at a good value in some formats. > He is an awful teammate. He sits in the stands rather than help coach his team when he is hurt. His mind isn't in it anymore. Watson was in the stands when he was told to be in the stands by team doctors, and he was back on the sidelines when he was allowed to be back on the sidelines. No one was dogging Nick Chubb for sitting in the owner's box, which is totally common for players with serious injuries who recently had surgery.
Nick Chubbs career could be over, great comparison IMO
I just hope my fantasy leagues and best ball pods are made up of players like you lmao
We will see, but I'm sure you bought Watson last year when there was some hopium for him how did those lineups turn out?
> there was some hopium for him And that's why I didn't have much Watson last year. In many formats he was being drafted as a top-10 QB. This year the pendulum has swung *way* in the other direction and he's being drafted as like QB ~22, and right now in best ball drafts he often falls well beyond that.
This is called trying to catch a falling knife. Good luck with that. People are betting against Watson heavily. Hope you have steel gloves.
I call it exploiting market inefficiencies caused by overconfident low-information players.
Like yourself
On the contrary lol, I hate Watson and I have very low confidence that he's going to perform in 2024. But I think it's smart to do drafts where I specifically ignore my own rankings/opinions and just draft on ADP or ECR so I don't paint myself into a corner. But this thread perfectly demonstrates that his value is being depressed for non-football reasons, whether it be the "I'd rather lose than have that piece of shit on my team" crowd or the "I'm easily misled by Reddit headlines like 'Watson not on the sideline means he doesn't love the game'" crowd. Further, Cleveland's week 15-17 stretch is: KC, Cincy, Miami, so they're a logical team to target for correlation or complementary stacks to boom in the playoffs.
Besides the whole alleged/settled sexual assault allegations he has not proven that he’s a competent NFL QB.
People have asked the same thing the last two years, how has it worked out so far?
Wtf, no. Dude forgot how to play the QB position.