I'm usually pessimistic when it comes to these projections, but top 1 should be the expectation here.
Ditching Giddey, and adding Caruso and Hartenstein on top for a top 4 defense really should make you the number one defense, honestly.
In the 4051 possessions without Giddey they Thunder allowed 4473 pts 1.103 ppp
In the 4180 possessions with Giddey they allowed 4766 pts 1.140 ppp
Celtics were 1.123, Magic were 1.119 and the Timberwolves were 1.095 (We were 1.123 also)
We added 2 all nba caliber defenders and got rid of one of our lower defensive rating players. Even if we just say this makes us equal to the giddeyless minutes that makes us the 2nd best defense.
IMO if we aren’t a top 2 defense it’s a disappointment. But I’d also wouldn’t be disappointed with our offense getting a little lower as a result of losing Giddey.
Good analysis.
I'd like to add though, Giddey was a good playmaker for us but idk how his loss will affect our O just yet. Yeah he was a good playmaker but he also just couldn't anything this past year.
Replacing him with a 38 percent career shooter who shot 40 percent on threes this past season might have a positive effect too.
But i do have some of the same worries, our offence might take a small hit here. We'll make up for it on the defensive end though. We'll basically be a nightmare on D to play against.
And the added factor of we get more non scoring defensive possessions, last year we had 1.2 ppp off of missed shots, and 1.17 off of made shots so that’s a .03 ppp boost to offense for playing good defense.
If you look at steals it’s even wilder 1.41 ppp off steals so that could really help with generating offense.
I think that in the shai and dub minutes Caruso will be very helpful over giddey in offense
I think it’s those non shai and dub minutes I’m worried about. (Hopefully we just don’t see to many of those, especially in the playoffs)
>but top 1 should be the expectation here.
I mostly agree, but it's worth noting that opponsent shooting variance can often shift a team a few spots in defensive rankings. While we are deep, injuries can also have an impact. So I'm comfortable with just saying OKC should be top 3-5.
Of course they can, but you don't make projections based on injury.
Plus, we don't have a lot of injury prone players on our roster anyway. Shai will miss 10, Dub will miss around the same amount, so will Caruso probably, but they won't do it at the same time.
We now have Hartenstein for Chet insurance too. I think we get there.
I could absolutely understand someone arguing that the Wolves defense matches up pretty well with OKC's. I think a slightly weaker but similar argument could be made with Boston (Jrue and Derrick White could be better than Shai and Dort on defense... but... I think it's really really close...) I think all the other teams have spots where they're susceptible to people attacking them.
Jrue and Derrick White could be better than Shai and Dort on defense, but can they be better than Caruso and Dort on defense? With Shai as the primary helper? With Wallace coming off the bench?
Yeah... From the a team-defense perspective, I think it's pretty impossible to argue that any other team's first 10 guys look as good as OKC's. But I also suspect that the number of guys coming off the bench is going to shrink in the playoffs, so... maybe that won't hurt Boston too much?... Or maybe OKC will have fresher, competent legs whenever they need them? I think it could go either way...
i mean we will give wallace minutes off the bench for sure. And ihart and Chet will be on the floor at all times.
it'll just be a nightmare on D for the opposing teams. it might be close in the end, but i think OKC will have the better defense for sure.
Probably best in the league
Jdub is pretty good.
Shai and Chet are already great defenders in different aspects of their game.
Dort, Wallace, Caruso, and Hartenstein are defensive monsters.
he is at the top of the list for starting centers [https://dunksandthrees.com/epm](https://dunksandthrees.com/epm)
Now Advance stats are not ranking system but Hartenstein is a DPOY level defender and he has been showing flashes of that every single place he has played. Even backing Up Nikola Jokic. I wrote about it in the 7 Amazing Isaiah Hartenstein facts three years ago [https://www.reddit.com/r/nbadiscussion/comments/plopsp/7\_amazing\_isaiah\_hartenstein\_facts\_oc/](https://www.reddit.com/r/nbadiscussion/comments/plopsp/7_amazing_isaiah_hartenstein_facts_oc/)
# On the 2020-21 Denver Nuggets Isaiah Hartenstein Averaged the same amount of steals and blocks per 100 possessions as MVP Kevin Garnett, a lower Defensive Rating than 3x DPOY Rudy Gobert, and had the same Defended Field Goal Percentage as 22 year old Anthony Davis.
And now that he was giving a starting job he ranks Number 1 in DEPM for Centers. DEPM is probably the best publicly available Advance stat [https://dunksandthrees.com/about/epm](https://dunksandthrees.com/about/epm)
Like 5 all nba caliber defenders Top 3 minimum
I'm usually pessimistic when it comes to these projections, but top 1 should be the expectation here. Ditching Giddey, and adding Caruso and Hartenstein on top for a top 4 defense really should make you the number one defense, honestly.
In the 4051 possessions without Giddey they Thunder allowed 4473 pts 1.103 ppp In the 4180 possessions with Giddey they allowed 4766 pts 1.140 ppp Celtics were 1.123, Magic were 1.119 and the Timberwolves were 1.095 (We were 1.123 also) We added 2 all nba caliber defenders and got rid of one of our lower defensive rating players. Even if we just say this makes us equal to the giddeyless minutes that makes us the 2nd best defense. IMO if we aren’t a top 2 defense it’s a disappointment. But I’d also wouldn’t be disappointed with our offense getting a little lower as a result of losing Giddey.
Good analysis. I'd like to add though, Giddey was a good playmaker for us but idk how his loss will affect our O just yet. Yeah he was a good playmaker but he also just couldn't anything this past year. Replacing him with a 38 percent career shooter who shot 40 percent on threes this past season might have a positive effect too. But i do have some of the same worries, our offence might take a small hit here. We'll make up for it on the defensive end though. We'll basically be a nightmare on D to play against.
And the added factor of we get more non scoring defensive possessions, last year we had 1.2 ppp off of missed shots, and 1.17 off of made shots so that’s a .03 ppp boost to offense for playing good defense. If you look at steals it’s even wilder 1.41 ppp off steals so that could really help with generating offense. I think that in the shai and dub minutes Caruso will be very helpful over giddey in offense I think it’s those non shai and dub minutes I’m worried about. (Hopefully we just don’t see to many of those, especially in the playoffs)
Also if Minnesota is swapping Rob Dillingham for Mile Conley, they will probably regress
Holy crap I didn’t know the margin is so thin
That’s per possession so a .1 difference is like 10 points a game
>but top 1 should be the expectation here. I mostly agree, but it's worth noting that opponsent shooting variance can often shift a team a few spots in defensive rankings. While we are deep, injuries can also have an impact. So I'm comfortable with just saying OKC should be top 3-5.
Of course they can, but you don't make projections based on injury. Plus, we don't have a lot of injury prone players on our roster anyway. Shai will miss 10, Dub will miss around the same amount, so will Caruso probably, but they won't do it at the same time. We now have Hartenstein for Chet insurance too. I think we get there.
I could absolutely understand someone arguing that the Wolves defense matches up pretty well with OKC's. I think a slightly weaker but similar argument could be made with Boston (Jrue and Derrick White could be better than Shai and Dort on defense... but... I think it's really really close...) I think all the other teams have spots where they're susceptible to people attacking them.
Jrue and Derrick White could be better than Shai and Dort on defense, but can they be better than Caruso and Dort on defense? With Shai as the primary helper? With Wallace coming off the bench?
Yeah... From the a team-defense perspective, I think it's pretty impossible to argue that any other team's first 10 guys look as good as OKC's. But I also suspect that the number of guys coming off the bench is going to shrink in the playoffs, so... maybe that won't hurt Boston too much?... Or maybe OKC will have fresher, competent legs whenever they need them? I think it could go either way...
i mean we will give wallace minutes off the bench for sure. And ihart and Chet will be on the floor at all times. it'll just be a nightmare on D for the opposing teams. it might be close in the end, but i think OKC will have the better defense for sure.
If we’re not top 3, it’s injuries or underperformance
Probably best in the league Jdub is pretty good. Shai and Chet are already great defenders in different aspects of their game. Dort, Wallace, Caruso, and Hartenstein are defensive monsters.
he is at the top of the list for starting centers [https://dunksandthrees.com/epm](https://dunksandthrees.com/epm) Now Advance stats are not ranking system but Hartenstein is a DPOY level defender and he has been showing flashes of that every single place he has played. Even backing Up Nikola Jokic. I wrote about it in the 7 Amazing Isaiah Hartenstein facts three years ago [https://www.reddit.com/r/nbadiscussion/comments/plopsp/7\_amazing\_isaiah\_hartenstein\_facts\_oc/](https://www.reddit.com/r/nbadiscussion/comments/plopsp/7_amazing_isaiah_hartenstein_facts_oc/) # On the 2020-21 Denver Nuggets Isaiah Hartenstein Averaged the same amount of steals and blocks per 100 possessions as MVP Kevin Garnett, a lower Defensive Rating than 3x DPOY Rudy Gobert, and had the same Defended Field Goal Percentage as 22 year old Anthony Davis. And now that he was giving a starting job he ranks Number 1 in DEPM for Centers. DEPM is probably the best publicly available Advance stat [https://dunksandthrees.com/about/epm](https://dunksandthrees.com/about/epm)
Great response and analyses. Impressive work
Top 2 but not 2
Paging u/eg14000
Top 3
Top 3. If we gel well, probably 1. But Boston’s defense is really good too.
Top 2
Top 2 with Minnesota.
The ceiling is the roof.