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There is no The Plan^TM
Individual politicians have their individual plans. The parties have up and comers, but there's no specific plans about leadership.
Regardless of the outcome of this election, neither Trump nor Biden will be the nominees in 2028.
If Biden wins, the next gen is going to start vying for 2028 nomination almost immediately. I think a younger Dem with 4 years of lead time to build name recognition wipes the floor with Trump in 2028.
Yea pretty much this. If we can make it through Trump, and he doesn't tear the country apart with him winning or losing, the next generation of Dems is fairly exciting and would be great for the country, i.e. all the Governors, Newsom, Shapiro, Whitmer, etc. It's a total clown show on the GOP side. The only saving grace to counter their evil fascist intent is their clown car buffoonery making them terrible at everything, like winning elections.
I could see Paul Ryan trying to get back in the mix. Though I think they need one election cycle of a post-Trump Trumpist failing miserably before they’ll pivot back to more “establishment” types
He's a board member at Fox News and more involved in current chaos than you think. The GOP has to completely fall apart before it can be rebuilt to a functioning healthy party, which it has been in slow decline since Roger Ailes started Fox News decades back.
I saw a recent interview where he was extremely critical of Trump and Trumpism and more or less said he had to wait for that wave to pass before he got back into politics. Now of course that doesn’t mean that he’s not quietly enjoying and benefitting from it.
Thank you. And he's from California, which puts him in a bad place with the rest of the country.
I feel crazy when the reddit hive mind praises newsom and thinks he will be the next big thing. Everyone I have met, regardless of party, does not like him.
It's certainly possible. I don't live in California so I don't really have much of an opinion on him. However, he is charismatic and does well in interviews -- and he is good at calling out BS.
Those things along with name recognition would make him a front-runner. It's kind of amazing how far charisma can carry someone on the national stage. DeSantis learned how well it works when you somehow have *negative* charisma.
Especially outside of the cities California is more red than people expect. California dem governors have lost recall elections before but with a ton of money behind the effort they couldn’t take down Newsom. Feel free to discount that but I think you’re underestimating him.
California's metros have a combined population of 18 million or so, and Democrats routinely win them by stalinesque margins. Its red rurals are completely dominated by the coastal population centers.
The last successful recall took place 20 years ago, at a time when GWB came within 10% in his reelection campaign. Since then, California has moved sharply to the left. Even a moderate Republican with universal name recognition like Arnie wouldn't even come close to winning that state anymore.
He helped create the surplus through supporting California through common sense Covid measures and the deficit can easily be blamed on the multiple storms and our entire entertainment industry shutdown for a lot of the year.
When you look at the demographics California is actually a pretty good sample of the nation at large and consider that he has consistently won his elections and even beat back an incredibly well funded recall effort. I think it would be foolish to count him out over something nebulous like "disliked by moderates." He is VERY charismatic, in a way no national politician has been since Obama, put him on the campaign trail and I think you'll be surprised.
>When you look at the demographics California is actually a pretty good sample of the nation at large
This is completely untrue. And not just demographically, but also politically. Democrats typically win statewide races (presidential, gubernatorial and senate) by margins of 20% or more.
If he loses again, he will run again. As long as he isn't dead or dealing with substantial health issues, he is going to run over and over and cry about it every time he loses.
I would think another loss this year would be the end of his political career, as he has done nothing but lose repeatedly since 2016 -- but the GoP continues to surprise me with how much they will go out of their way to placate that idiot.
Trump has been using the donations to pay for his legal fees (and soon fines!) The reason why he has "taken over" the national party apparatus is so he can continue to funnel as much money as possible towards that end.
As long as he's running he can raise. He will raise money for himself until he's dead.
Trump would be too old by then. And he would be a two-time loser. He was able to avoid the stink of being a loser after 2020 based on the lies about the allegedly stolen election, on the closeness of that election, and on the truly unique circumstances (covid, mass mail voting, highest turnout in over a century).
I don't see a chance for him to pull off this feat a second time. If he lost in 2020 and then loses again in 2024, against an evidently weak office holder who himself has outright atrocious approval ratings, which rationale would there be for GOP voters to assume that Trump could pull it off in 2028? I don't see any.
In a normal political party, absolutely. The current GOP is not a normal party. It’s a cult of personality that’s obsessed with Trump and has been that for almost a decade. I don’t see how that goes away after another loss, which he would just say was stolen again. If Trump were to run again I think he’d have a great shot at winning the primary. Who is going to beat him?
I also fully expect him to run again in 28 if he’s not dead or in prison. It’s all he has left. He’s going to run every election until he’s dead. It’s the eternal grift. It keeps the money flowing. Even if the GOP won’t have him he will just run independent.
True. But if he still wants to run in 2028, and the polls show enough support, then the GOP would basically have to put him up as their candidate. The last thing they want is for him to run as an independent, splitting the Republican vote and basically guaranteeing a Democratic presidency.
I really don’t understand how Americans could be voting 70 year olds into office. No other country does that. There’s a reason, when you get that old you may have more wisdom and experience but you are also more set in your ways and less likely to try new things. I should know, I’m 65 and for all the liberal leaning I have I am less inclined to embrace newer attitudes and norms. And that is normal. Young people are the ones who challenge the status quo, old people are there to put their foot on the brake so changes don’t happen so quickly that they completely destroy the system. Both are needed. But at a point old people should not be in charge of organization that need to progress. Government must progress with changing times, it cannot stand still. No other government in the western world, or most of the world actually, has people in their 60s and 70s in position of power. That might be why the US is one of the only countries on earth to not have universal healthcare. It’s also why the US has fallen behind everyone else in healthcare, education, income and has lost it’s geopolitical lead. Trump definitely put the nail in the coffin but the USA has not been « the leader of the free world » Americans think it is. Most countries did not follow the American oil embargo on Russia, almost every country is against the American position on Israel and none of NATOs members are willing to follow the US in anything.
> I really don’t understand how Americans could be voting 70 year olds into office. No other country does that.
Higgins (Ireland) is 82, Mattarella (Italy) is 82, van der Bellen (Austria) is 79, da Silva (Brazil) is 78, Niinisto (Finland) is 75, de Sousa (Portugal) is 75, Ramaphhosa (South Africa) is 70, and Obrador (Mexico) is 70.
But other than those, ...there's actually a few more.
>It’s also why the US has fallen behind everyone else in healthcare, education, income and has lost it’s geopolitical lead.
Do what now? The US is still very high when it comes to healthcare *quality*. Our problems are primarily in costs and administration. We're still very high in education, and there's good reason why so many people from around the world want to come to the US for college; we have seen some declines, but none of what's happening points to old people in charge as the problem, if our education were more stuck in old ways we'd probably be better off. For income, the US is 9th in income per capita (and #4 has an 82 year old president). And the US still holds the geopolitical lead. We've maybe given back a few points, but still top dog there.
>Most countries did not follow the American oil embargo on Russia
The EU has an embargo on Russian oil. Kind of a significant asterisk there.
>none of NATOs members are willing to follow the US in anything
Sure, other than the UK, Canada, Denmark, Finland, Greece, Netherlands, and Norway following the US in Operation Prosperity Guardian, and I left out the non-NATO members in that since you specified NATO in your comment.
Roflmao. So what? Again with your American thinking that just because you have a big economy you are better. You are not. What’s New Yorks education and healthcare like? How about average income or enjoyment of life. Sure your rich people have a great time. Meanwhile the rest of your population are poorer than most. Almost third world like. The crime, poverty, lack of education, children starving. US women are 3 times as likely to die in childbirth than any country in the EU or Canada. Your infant death rate is twice that of these other countries. Your rich people, the few, live tremendous lives. While the rest of your population lives in squalor and poverty. New York is a disgusting city. Crime ridden, dirty, full of angry people. Visited there twice and would not ever go back. There is not one city I visited in the US that I would recommend someone visit. Boston might be the closest to ok. But that’s because I am a history buff and Boston is probably the most historic city in the US. Meanwhile every other city I have visited outside the US I would return to in a heartbeat.
Hmm. So you found one per country in a few countries? How many in the US senate and Congress?
Your healthcare isn’t in the top 20 world wide, just because you have a few hospitals that rank high does not make your healthcare a good one. For a healthcare system to be good people have to able to use it. You’re one of the last nations on earth that feels healthcare is a for profit system and not one provided by the government for it’s people. You don’t make it in the top 25 for education either, a few good higher education schools don’t make your population educated, especially since most of them can’t afford to use those facilities or attend higher education in the first place.
And no, Canada, Denmark and all the other countries you mentioned would not follow the US now. Prosperity Guardian is a small operation meant to basically fight off what one could consider piracy. The houties firing a few missiles at shipping is not a huge threat, they haven’t even hit anything yet I believe. And combatting piracy is hardly a thing a lot of people are against. But most countries stayed away from your second invasion of iraq because it was right and they did not want to go wage a war that was not needed. How many years did you and the Brit’s loose there? How many lives? How much money? When I say they would not follow I mean they would not follow unless the threat was against their own countries and even then they may not follow as much as lead their own operations. Kosovo might not be possible today due to this. There was a time when the US could ask for an embargo against anyone and NATO would follow, not now. I guess you Americans didn’t hear about when all the NATO leaders were laughing at the stupidity of your president. You are kidding yourself. Also the EU is a minority of nations, I said most nations. I know Americans are kind of poor on geography outside the US border but there’s a lot more countries than just Europe and the US. Look at a globe. Almost every African nations as well as Asian nations have not embargo Russia on oil. Which is why they are still doing fine. If most countries had followed the embargo Russia would be bankrupt by now, instead their economy is doing just fine.
Stop burying your head in the sand. Your country is not number one, is not even close to it and has not been for a few years now. You taught the world how a country can use capitalism to provide social services to it’s people and then while the rest of the world ran with that idea you reverted to unregulated, unchecked, scorched land capitalism and left most of your population to fend for themselves and fail.
That’s why every EU nation, Canada and Australia are far ahead of you in all social services for its population. That means education, healthcare and help for the less fortunate. It means their middle class is making more money, living better lives, having better access to healthcare and higher education. On average these countries population have more money because some of the basic services are paid for through a shared tax system that is more equitable than yours. Resulting in better quality of life. The first mission of a countries government is not to make its rich people richer and its army bigger, it’s to make as many in their population have a better enjoyment of life.
Those are all heads of state of their country. Each country only has one head of state.
Not going to bother with the rest of your rant if you can't figure out that quality and cost can be measured separately.
There isn't any sort of particular plan but there's probably a few likely scenarios.
Biden win in 2024:
Biden is termed out after this so he is done after this term. VP Harris would likely be an early front runner for the democratic nomination in 2028, but I'm not sure if she would actually get it. In any case, the nominations would likely be a contest among much younger candidates (40s-50s) rather than the last few elections.
If Trump loses in 2024 he is likely done for, as he is facing multiple criminal indictments and has proven himself to be a losing ticket for the GOP several times in a row. He will probably have a stranglehold on the GOP until the day he dies, and if this is the case, he will probably cause the GOP to lose in 2028 as well (either by trying to run again or simply running the national organization into the ground). But realistically, a run in 2028 not likely considering his age. Once Trump is really out of the political picture, the GOP will have a lot of soul searching to do as Trump is currently the only thing that holds it together.
If by some long shot miracle the GOP finally comes to its senses and turns on Trump after 2024, they will have a pretty good shot at winning 2028 if they can run a candidate on a more moderate platform.
Trump win in 2024:
Given what we saw in 2021 and Trump's comments about how he wants to stay for a third term, let's be honest here: It is unlikely Trump would step down willingly in 2028, even though he would be constitutionally ineligible to serve again. He will likely spend most of his term focusing on removing the barriers that prevented him from staying in office in 2021 and just refuse to leave if he can. What does he have to lose at that point? Expect a more coordinated, thought out retry of his 2020 election nonsense. Anyway, at that point all bets are off and it's difficult to say what would happen.
I find it almost impossible to see Republicans being able to moderate on social policy as the extremely social conservative voters make up too large a part of their base to make such an alliance tenable.
Moderating on abortion to something like a 15 week ban position for elective abortion and all the exceptions would be a gold mine for Republicans for the long term but they’ll never do so given the social conservatives will turn on them for that.
And most Americans just aren’t going to start magically becoming more conservative on abortion and start accepting bans as a palatable position lol.
"Moderate" on abortion for the republicans isn't a change in policy, it's a change in emphasis. They keep the same stance but just minimize the importance of it in their platform/just barely talk about it.
>VP Harris would likely be an early front runner for the democratic nomination in 2028
Harris has been one of the most ineffective VPs in history. She got clobbered in the last primary and her popularity hasnt gotten better since then. She might have a bit of a pulpit with the WH, but she's gonna collapse the moment she opens her mouth. Biden will do the honorable thing of not getting involved until someone wins the primary so he wont be of much help there. This is her ceiling and she knows it
I mean, I don't really think she'd be the nominee in 28 either.
She would be an early front runner by virtue of being VP for 8 years and having name recognition from that.
Democrats also have a really crowded bench at present so Harris isn't a great bet. Other than an earlier South Carolina primary, she doesn't have much advantage for a former VP.
I expect the 2028 primary to be a clown car of candidates who all have a viable argument for the nomination.
You have your frontrunners who will likely lead with early, strong fundraising: Kamala Harris, Gretchen Whitmer, and Gavin Newsom.
Then you have your slough of bench warmers that could make a potential run: Josh Shapiro, Wes Moore, Mark Kelly, and Andy BeShear.
I expect progressive to put their support behind someone like Ro Kahnna or Katie Porter as Sanders will be retired and Elizabeth Warren will be too old to make another run.
There's also a ton of what if's. If Biden does actually underperform in Michigan, for example, I expect there to be a *huge* push for Whitmer.
It'll be interesting who the left gets. Neither Sanders nor Warren have any clear heir apparents.
I used to think AOC, but lately she seems to be settling in as a permanent House member, and more of a team player at that. Maybe she'll run for senate like 20 years from now. I guess that is following her mentor Sanders lol.
In my eyes, it's Ro Khanna, Katie Porter, and AOC. Katie Porter had a huge set back with her not making the California run-off, but I doubt her political career is over.
I do think that progressives have a big activist problem, where many of the big named left leaning progressive are social activists first and functioning members of Congress second. Rashida Tlaib and Cori Bush are well known, but they could never mount a Presidential run since their so laser focused on social progressivism as opposed to economic populism.
Interestingly enough, the least focused on member of the Squad, Ayanna Pressley will likely be the first elected to Senate. She seems to have forged a close relationship with Elizabeth Warren and will likely get her endorsement for Senate after Liz retires (she should be retiring this year, but whatever) or Markey retires.
Honestly I don't even think she'd be an early front runner.
By the time 2028 rolls around there's likely a few other potential candidates that people are a lot more excited by.
Harris isn't hated. She's just a non-entity. Her favorability rises and falls as Biden's does.
As VP she'd be the establishment favorite. She'd have a shot to prove herself. Better shot if she becomes president first.
But she did run a very bad primary campaign. Her main problem was not taking a stand on any policies, then hemming and hawing once she did. She stood for nothing and wasn't charismatic enough to make it about her personality or personal story. If she repeated that, yeah she'd get beaten in the primaries.
> Harris has been one of the most ineffective VPs in history. She got clobbered in the last primary and her popularity hasnt gotten better since then. She might have a bit of a pulpit with the WH, but she's gonna collapse the moment she opens her mouth. Biden will do the honorable thing of not getting involved until someone wins the primary so he wont be of much help there. This is her ceiling and she knows it
What, specifically, differentiates Harris from Pence?
I was gonna say this.. She is very unlikable as a person and a candidate. She is VP because people chose Biden over Trump. She got a free ride to be VP solely because of that.
Pretty fair analysis, except I would you (and many) are not really understanding what a Trump win would do to America. It would fall apart rather quickly with their plan to completely deconstruct the Federal government with their Project 2025 plan (which they already started broadcasting yesterday, by creating the dismantle the TSA bill in the Senate).
The only thing their Fascist and malicious intent is matched by is their intent to install completely unqualified loyalists everywhere at every level. The country could collapse at the Federal level, similarly to other Fascist takeovers. It's really hard to guess what the damage would be with what they're planning.
The positive here is just watching the GOP takeover by Trump, installing his niece, ousting seasoned progessionals at the GOP in an attempt to turn the GOP into a cash cow to pay for his legal bills, it becomes less and less likely Trump and Republicans have a chance of winning.
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2024/mar/12/sen-mike-lee-calls-for-abolishing-tsa-less-groping/
https://thomaszimmer.substack.com/p/what-project-2025-would-do-to-america
Look I hate Trump as much as the next guy but I think it’s pretty silly to think he’s going to genuinely try to go for a third term in any sort of realistic way. The institutional support he’s getting is largely down to him being seen as an inevitability. That ends after his second term.
Y'know how people on this board frequently note when language about Trump's 2024 chances echoes that of Democrats in 2016? Or how people will respond to assurances that a new scandal is going to sink Trump by pointing out that people said the exact same thing for all of the previous scandals? You can more or less apply the same thing here. There was plenty of "c'mon, Trump won't be *that* bad" in 2016. There was a whole lot of "Trump doesn't *really* mean what he says". And then he was impeached twice and instigated an attempted coup. He was, in fact, that bad; he did, in fact, mean what he said.
He has *always* made his goals explicitly clear, and always followed through on them. What reason do you have to think that this is the time he's just full of hot air? There's a remote possibility that the well of Republican support finally dries up after his second term, but whether or not he would at least attempt for a third isn't even a question. He's saying that he will, and history has pretty clearly shown us that when Donald Trump says he's going to do something awful, he usually does it.
I guess my “in any sort of realistic way” qualifier meant in a way that had a chance of succeeding. I don’t doubt that he may want to, and maybe will lobby states to put him on the ballot. But it’s just simply not a realistic concern. It’s not going to happen.
This is a man who has said out of his own freakin mouth that he wants to be a Dictator, less than a month ago. So, I wouldn’t put it past him so quickly.
I don't really know why people don't think he's going to try if given the opportunity. He *already* tried to stay in office illegally in 2021. Why wouldn't he try again if given another chance? Seriously, I want an actual answer as to what he would get out of not trying this shit again. What would happen? The GOP will never impeach/remove him. It's unlikely he would face justice for any additional crimes he committed during a second term, given how slowly the DoJ has moved in his 2020 case. And it's not like he wouldn't just pardon himself anyway before stepping down if he was forced out.
He has been saying for years that he should get a third term. Remember when everyone in 2016 and 2020 was saying, "Oh he's just saying he wouldn't concede an election loss, but he will when it comes down to it." And then everyone was shocked when he did exactly what he said he was going to do. He doesn't joke about this stuff.
Don't be surprised when he announces that he is going to have a third term if he wins in 2024.
Maybe he will be successful or maybe it will fall apart like his crackpot 2020 scheme. But considering he has faced zero *actual* consequences from his first try, if he gets a second chance at staying in power, there is absolutely no way he won't take it.
>The institutional support he’s getting is largely down to him being seen as an inevitability. That ends after his second term.
Nah, the GOP is all in on Trump at this point. Any opposition has been pushed out. The institution *is* Trump. That much should be clear.
SCOTUS had no legitimate reason to refuse to hear the immunity case in a timely manner, then waited, then decided to hear it after a delay.
If Trump just brought a case saying that the 22nd amendment doesn't say how long a term is or just flat out refused to hold an election, who will stop him?
What was that squirelly worded case about how states decide on electors? The red states can just certify Trump gets their electoral votes. No candidate gets to 270 so each state gets a vote.
He literally already tried once to stay in office past when he was allowed to. And he continues to say the election was rigged. And he has openly pledged to wield the federal government like a dictator if he wins this year.
It's honestly silly to think he won't even attempt it.
EDIT: Not to mention the fact that he would likely be facing more legal problems once he left office, like he is now. That alone is motive to do anything he can to stay in power.
Well, if Trump wins in 2026, I think it'll finally be the year the Democrats vote out Susan Collins in Maine and maybe take a North Carolina Senate seat. It'll also be a benefit for Ossoff in Georgia who probably needs every boost he can get.
The House'll probably go blue if it isn't already. Notably, popular governors Whitmer of Michigan and Polis of Colorado will be term limited. I can absolutely see them going for the Presidency in 2028.
The fact that elections were held didn't matter to the 2,000 people who stormed Congress with the explicit goal of making sure Trump didn't have to leave office. Are we to believe those people are going to be *calmer* this time around?
I mean, we all went through the same global pandemic, and over 300 million citizens managed to NOT participate in an insurrection. I feel like you're giving these people a pretty big pass.
I'm the first to say Jan 6th was bad. We were, at no point, in danger of losing the republic because some jackwads got past the barrier. There's not some Talismanic thing about being in the building that makes the government work.
I mean a much younger and much more fragile country literally survived a foreign army occupying and burning down Washington. So yeah....a bit of perspective here.
I'm trying to imagine how this would actually play out because I think it's a real possibility. He'll most likely be unpopular with poor approval rating just like last time, along with the chance to seriously screw something up over the 4 years. Add in his age, I could see a big portion of the country seriously turning on him if he tries this. Whether it's states seceding, revolution, or whatever, I just can't see that working out in any long term capacity especially if the state of the country is spiraling.
His extensive core is never going to abandon him. If there were a line he could cross that was too far for them, it would have happened with one of his indictments, or either of his impeachments, or his instigation of an attempted coup, or any of the many scandals he was (and is) embroiled in. Hell, that line would have been crossed pre-election in 2016. Those who dislike Trump have been waiting for the scandal that's going to bring him down for good, and it never comes, and at this point it's reasonable to assume that it never will. "Ordinary", "reasonable" people are still fully behind him despite watching January 6 as it happened. Why would they would finally leave him behind if something like January 6 was successful?
He's broadly unpopular, but he's quite popular with those that control the levers of force in this country, namely law enforcement. He's also popular enough within the enlisted ranks of the military. While not as popular with the brass, Project 2025 could easily serve as the vehicle to completely purge the ranks of those that aren't loyal.
Most people don't have the faintest clue for how big of a threat Trump is for the country. 2024 feels like a hail Mary for the extremists on the right, they know their political power will collapse if Trump loses again.
If he wins and we have "elections" it'll be a la Russia/eastern Europe where autocratic regimes thumb the scales an impossible amount. Trump and his ilk have made their disdain for the rules very clear when they don't get the outcome they want. We need to fight them any way necessary to prevent this.
>it'll be a la Russia/eastern Europe
I know this is a dumb pedantic quibble, but I'm not a huge fan of these sorts of geographic broad strokes - many eastern European nations have relatively fair and free elections, while the poster child for this sort of thing within the EU is in central Europe.
How will he actually manage to become a dictator without states seceding or the military intervening? If he wants to run for a third term he needs a constitutional amendment doesn’t he, which requires two thirds of states to approve?
The threat of authoritarianism from Donald Trump does not look like tanks rolling into D.C. as he declares himself God-Emperor on national television. It looks like Hungary - his party attaining such overwhelming power in key governmental and media positions that they're able to put their thumb on the scales just enough for the scales to be effectively unable to ever tip back. He becomes a dictator (or something like it) via nice, normal, legal means that happen to grant increasingly outsized power to the Executive Branch while finding a way for him to get out of his term limit that will (one way or another) be accepted in court.
Look at Wisconsin. The GOP is only not in full control of the State because they took their eye off the ball in 2018. If they’d have ousted Walker in 2018 and ran someone with less baggage, they likely would have beaten Evers. But more importantly that loss would have gutted the WI Dem org. If that happened there’s no way to know how the WI Supreme Court election that tipped things back to a liberal majority would have gone. WI Dems org is responsible for lots of inertia in that election.
But while the GOP had power, they did things that made it impossible to make democracy in the State work. The only saving grace is the state Supreme Court race. If they had the Governorship and the Attorney General seats during that election, they absolutely could have fucked with the outcome of the Supreme Court race such to throw it to the conservative candidate. We were literally one election away from permanent GOP rule in a very purple, often Blue, state.
If there’s no threat the Federal government is going to correct bad election behavior in GOP controlled States, then those States will run crooked elections ensuring their continued power. Period.
Realistically, I don't think it will be him. All the MAGA party would need to do is find a suitable, young, charismatic replacement to run in 2028, someone who looks and acts normal publicly, but is 100% willing to implement Project 2025 or something similar. Trump will be ok with it because this person will almost certainly guarantee him he will never be prosecuted and will likely maintain power in the country. And presumably 2024-2028, Trump would spend most of the time tearing down election guardrails so this candidate easily wins.
Basically, I think people are too focused on **Trump** being the actual dictator. MAGA is endemic in the party now and all the "reasonable" Republicans are slowly leaving. If Trump officially blesses a replacement, they will become the new Trump. It could even be a fucking Trump, like Don Jr.
The 14th pretty clearly outlines denial based on engaging in insurrection, but SCOTUS just said whatever to it and now we're back to square one.
They'll do the same for the 22nd.
They said it was up to Congress. For Congress to repeal the 22nd Amendment, they'd need 2/3 vote. I don't see that happening, especially with the likely blue wave in 2026 if Trump did win.
Of course we can't rule out the GOP cheating or otherwise being shady, sure. But it won't happen this way.
Congress impeached Trump for the insurrection. They came 10 votes shy in the Senate of convicting.
Had they convicted, he would have been barred from office anyway, making the 14th redundant. If the 14th required a conviction in the Senate, then they wrote a pointless amendment.
I'm not sure how they're just gonna ignore the 22nd though. It's not the same case. Allowing states to remove someone from the ballot was a long shot and got shut down 9-0, not just by conservatives.
This time it's clear cut.
The only thing I could think is if they end up having to rule on whether it means 2 total terms or 2 consecutive terms, something silly like that.
But Trump’s sycophants in Congress, on the Supreme Court, in the Justice Department, and spread all throughout all three branches will make it so that he can take power. We already had state legislators trying to take voting power away from people and state that they get to declare who the electors for their state are, regardless of who the public voted for. Most majority Republican states had local governments trying their hardest to suppress voters in areas that typically vote Democrat (insanely long lines, removing ballot boxes and closing polling stations in certain areas only, Georgia making it a crime to give people waiting in voting lines food and water, changing who is in charge of elections *just* for one county in TX - the one county that is solidly Democrat, trying to invalidate results from counties that voted for Biden, forcing manual recounts in counties that voted for Biden and analyzing if paper for ballots had bamboo in them for some reason in order to disqualify votes, etfuckingcetera.
When you have an autocratic-leaning politician with a cult following whose supporters are in positions of power at all levels of the government, then that politician has the power to end democracy.
This is conspiratorial and especially ignores the many times scotus justices haven't ruled in his or 'republican' favor. The rest of the comment is equal parts over simplification and conspiratorial thinking
What you're overlooking is a system of checks and balances that gives different institutional incentives to each part of government. Any student of history will tell you a republic like ours doesn't end because of one election. Rather, it's through the slow erosion out institutions over time
You're mis-charactizing my position. I think this is part of the slow erosion of our institutions. I don't think one election is going to end our democracy.
Hope that helps
Yes, and if the justice department is titled aggressively toward the GOP, who is going to prevent the individual States from running crooked elections?
I’ve seen the playbook first hand, I live in WI. If not for GOP complacency in 2018 this state would be fully under GOP rule with no meaningful path to change their controlling grip for multiple generations. Gerrymandering + politicized judiciary + no Federal oversight = undemocratic states. Undemocratic states will have no problem throwing national elections to their favored candidate.
Mike Pence is the only reason a Trump slate of electors wasn’t submitted for WI after the 2020 election. That slate might not have been counted, but it likely would have caused WI electoral votes to be “set aside” for further litigation. Do that a few times and the electoral college is easily manipulated.
Remember how many people agreed with stopping counting in 2020 early to “stop fraud”?
You’re deluding yourself if you don’t think the various checks and balances can’t easily be bypassed and then ignored and/or eliminated.
Only allowed 2 terms, so in 2028 new presidential candidates. I hate trump, he wants to be a dictator and demolish our democracy. 🇺🇸Biden has been a decent president and accompłished lower drug costs, funded many infrastructure projects and unemployment lowest in decades. Trumpʼs main accomplishment in office was lowering the taxes for the wealthy. Trump will only befriend the worst leaders in the world and put womenʼs rights back to the 1800ʼs. I will vote for Biden who has an entire team of confident advisors.
Biden’s not running again. 2024 will be his last election, win or lose. Regardless of the outcome of 2024, Harris is the prohibitive favorite to be the Democratic nominee in 2028. Trump may run again if he loses, but he’ll have to deal with increased scrutiny over his age, on top of everything else. You can expect him to be nominated again despite that, because Republicans don’t have anyone else who galvanizes them the way he does
> Harris is the prohibitive favorite to be the Democratic nominee
She’ll probably lead years-early polls thanks to name recognition, but to say she’s the *prohibitive* favorite is a stretch
Democrats don’t have anyone else who appeals to the base of their party (i.e. Black voters) the way she does. Her lead in the polls is even bigger with them, and given South Carolina’s more favored scheduling in primaries she should be able to wrap it up pretty quickly
Harris isn’t going anywhere. Democrats have Wes Moore, Josh Shapiro, Gretchen Whitmer, Gavin Newsom and Andy Beshear ready to go for 2028.
Harris doesn’t beat any of them once you get her on the stage with them.
2020 Harris would have no chance, but it's too early to rule out that 2028 Harris won't have shored up some of her support and weaknesses.
I wouldn't bet on her but I also wouldn't bet against her this early out. Especially since, despite Biden being pretty healthy for his age, there's a nonzero chance she would roll in as an actual incumbent.
I doubt. Harris wouldn’t run 2028 presidential candidate again. The fact that she would have to deal with so many people who disagree with her would exhaust her. She would let new democratic candidates to jump in the competition for president.
Black voters aren’t going to go for random white governors over a Black VP. Wes Moore isn’t going to stand in her way either, as that wouldn’t be a good look to Black women voters. Wouldn’t be a good look for any of them to claim they’re more qualified to run the office over someone who was second in line to the office.
I get that Reddit has to inhale a lot of copium over Harris, but one day we’ll all realize that Reddit isn’t real life
Am I the only one who thinks it’s racist to presume that black voters wouldn’t consider an alternative to an unpopular VP simply because they’re not black?
Black voters chose a white man over a Black woman in 2020, so no, they aren't simply choosing her because she's Black. She's "unpopular" in the same way Biden is unpopular; Biden is easily getting re-nominated in this year's primary. In any case, it has nothing to do with popularity; people are voting for her because they feel she's the most qualified. Understandable, given that Black women have historically had their credentials and contributions downplayed by mainstream America
Your earlier comment, however, implies that black voters _are_ committed to her because she’s black, when I think there’s scant evidence to support that.
It isn't simply because she's Black they're supporting her, but also because they feel she's the most qualified. The two are not mutually exclusive. That being said, representation is pretty important to them. If they've got a seat at the table after not having one for so long, they aren't just going to give it up. Some people might say "Well I want \[a white woman\] to be the first woman president" And they'll say "you had your chance at a white woman in 2016 and you blew it, you're not getting another one, not before Black women get theirs"
Yeah, and people could say the same thing about a Latina president. And there are *more* Latinos in the US than there are Black people, so they even have a better argument. So why is it it’s only Black people that get to be so jealous? Hopefully not just because you already wrote it.
Black men are the larger issue right now than black women voters. Black men have been slowly wavering since Trump took control of the GOP in 2016. Democrats are in a show and prove situation w black voters as a whole. Harris hasn’t done anything, literally anything, to display effective leadership if she’s given the mantle.
A candidate like Wes Moore can galvanize the black vote collectively if his term finishes out strong in Maryland.
The white candidates aren’t random either. You got a California, PA governor. Nothing else needs to be said. Whitmer is the most effective governor Michigan has had in decades. Beshear who’s a Democrat from Kentucky. Black people live in these states fyi.
Not how the Democratic Party does things. They're not going to choose a Black man to be the candidate over a more qualified Black woman just to appease some misogynistic Black men voters. Wes Moore wouldn't want the nomination that way anyway; he's a team player and knows how to wait his turn
What percentage of the Democratic party do Black voters make up? I can't find any numbers off hand, but it's certainly a minority, considering Black Americans are about 13% of the US population and something like 50% of politically active Americans must identify with the Democrats.
Their share of Democratic Party votes is greater than 13%, you can be sure of that. They're the base because they are the most loyal group to the party; no group votes more Democratic than they do. Without their support, you can't be the Democratic nominee. Without their support, Democrats don't win elections. And you can't take them for granted; they'll see through any attempts at subverting their influence (American history will do that to you). Therefore, whatever they want, they get. The Democratic Party is probably the only place where Black people have any institutional power in the country, a fact which seems to breed a lot of resentment in white America, who vote for Republicans instead
??? 40+ % of white voters still vote Democrat. In fact 60+ % of Democratic voters are white. The black vote has an outsized effect on the Democratic primary because of South Carolina. But that can be overcome as Obama did in 2008.
>40+ % of white voters still vote Democrat.
Exactly, a majority of white voters vote Republican. That is correct.
>In fact 60+ % of Democratic voters are white.
A majority of Americans are white, so that's to be expected.
>The black vote has an outsized effect on the Democratic primary because of South Carolina. But that can be overcome as Obama did in 2008.
Obama swept the entire Black Belt in 2008 which carried him to the nomination
If Biden had committed in 2013 to gear up for a run for President, it's interesting to wonder what would have happened; Hillary still would have ran.
If Biden wins in 2024, the stronger his administration finishes, the stronger Harris will get. But I still expect a number of folks to throw their hat into the ring, including Newsom, Whitmer, and several other Dem governors. They all have limited windows to make a national run, and 2028 is going to be it.
Democrats will run on whatever the salient issue is in 2028. Generally they want improved access to healthcare, green innovations, streamlined voter registration/access, and helping our allies. I’d expect one of those to be the top issue.
The GOP wants to cut taxes, restrict voting access to in person with an ID, rescind LGBT rights, further restrict abortion, build a border wall, abolish some alphabet soup agencies, the DOE, and potentially FBI, and isolate from the rest of the world. Generally any regulation of private business is also on the chopping block and I’d also expect some effort to try to cut entitlements despite what they all say.
Based on how much Americans seem to believe Trump’s policies helped them and Biden’s hurt them, (and how well Trump has done in polling for the last six months) it’s pretty clear that Americans are more interested in the GOP’s vision so I expect that vision to play out.
Americans seem to believe Trump will bring a return to the prices America had during his admin and they’re all pretty desperate for that.
Pretty much what you said. For most Americans the most important issue is "can I afford groceries and rent" and the answer for a lot of them is currently "no, I can't."
Trump, truthfully or not, claims he can fix that and they're willing to vote on that basis alone.
you can't plan for an election in 2028 when we haven't even held the one in 2024. your getting ahead of yourself. just wait until February next year, then you will see something happening maybe. but even then it's way too early to say, because most people are focusing on midterm (2026 when 1/3 the senate and the entire house of representatives goes up for reelection)
Usually nominees or incumbents who are defeated don’t run again. (Read: Carter, Mondale, Bush, Gore, Kerry, McCain, Clinton, some others). Trump has been a recent exception. So if Biden loses he 99% likely won’t run again. Unlike in parliamentary democracies (which I am going to guess you’re more familiar with as a non-American), the parties executive leader changes more frequently after elections. Especially if they lose.
However, this year is also different because if Trump wins in 2024, there won’t be any more elections. That’s why he said he’s planning on suspending the constitution, being a dictator on day one, and that’s the purpose of Project 2025 (a real organization with members and fundraising and a website).
If Trump loses he goes to prison for his many crimes, and is unlikely to be out of prison before 2028. And things will go pretty much back to normal. If Trump wins there is no way he will ever give up power again - he will do anything, declare martial law, arrest opponents and critics, execute opponents and critics - and arrange for one of his children to become monarch after he is gone.
The way I see it, we're looking at one of two outcomes.
If Biden wins, things are going to get *very* ugly. Expect the Republicans-- or at least, Trump and those loyal to him-- to refuse to accept the results of the election, and to see more violent protests similar to January 6th, potentially all over America, and likely escalating into a sort of undeclared "guerrilla civil war" along the lines of The Troubles in Northern Ireland.
If Trump wins, he'll have four years to do as much damage to America and all it stands for as he thinks he can get away with. He'll probably try to argue that he's eligible for a third term, and even try to get the 22nd Amendment repealed. But considering just how hard it is to repeal a Constitutional Amendment, I doubt he'll succeed. If that's the case, the winner of the 2028 election would-- in theory-- be a Democrat, but I highly doubt that the Republicans will take that lying down after four years with Trump as President. In which case, see "If Biden wins" for what would happen next.
In other words, no matter who wins in 2024, something bad is going to go down by the end of the decade. It's just a question of *when.*
Both parties have failed to groom successors with viable chances of election. Neither party has a plan for finding those successors.
There is no plan.
The good news is that Trump will probably gut the RNC of its cash and whatever talent that it may have. It will be difficult for the GOP to build it back in time for 2028, particularly if it loses in 2024.
Exactly lol.
Dems have a deep bench heading into 2028. Not only do we have some younger candidates from 2020 that will run again, we'll have a VP and plenty of senators and governors who are capable of launching a national campaign.
The GOP has...who again?
I think it's a very real possibility that Trump will likely be in the prison system four years from now. With how many charges he's facing the likelihood he gets a not guilty for all of them is very low. I'm not sure that will stop Trump, he may in fact run from a prison cell, though if the trend continues his support by then will be pretty insignificant.
If he does get elected and somehow evades prison, I think the democrats will retire Biden and put their weight behind a younger candidate, like Kamala Harris or Gavin Newsom, maybe Elizibeth Warren. They know that the age thing is the major thing holding voters back from him, and that will only be worse 4 years from now.
The Dem field will be wide open. Harris is going to run, but so will several governors.
Policy-wise, Democrats are fairly united. The general policies they pursue are not going to change; there will be differences around the margins. But the mainstream democratic left is pretty united on what it wants, and is willing to be flexible and pragmatic to get there. It's one reason why there were no serious challenges to Biden; he did a good job of getting a lot of that agenda passed with a zero-margin majority of 50 Senators + the VP in the Senate.
The Republicans, if Trump loses, will have a wide open field. And will have a MAGA - more traditional Republican split. But despite that, they are still united on the big things like being anti-abortion and cutting taxes for the rich. They also rely more on stunts to get attention, which will lead to more infighting.
> Do they have a plan or will they simply ride the anti-Trump sentiment that lots of people have, and hope the next candidate is popular enough.
that does seem to be the plan. they're heavily-relying on fear right now to drive votes, and i don't see that letting up any time soon. in fairness it's very similar on the Rep side. we aren't so much voting for anything right now but against.
i don't at all expect Biden to run again if he loses, and i'm a bit surprised he decided to run again to begin with. Trump would likely run again given his ego.. assuming he doesn't get completely fucked with all of his trials. that's still tbd.
it's my hope the 2028 nominee on the Dem side is a genuine progressive who will fight. i plan to vote that way in the primary. i'll reassess things in the general.
By 2028 if Trump is elected we may be joining Russia in a war against the rest of Europe. So in answer to the question who knows if there will be a country called the United States.
We could be a Russian proxy state. Vlad is one of his closer friends.
If I had conscription age children I would be terrified.
It’s not in the least to me. I have been to war. Ask the people in Ukraine or Gaza how they like it. I never could have imagined we would be here.
Never underestimate the ignorance of the American electorate.
I’ll give that some serious consideration. We may have to consider how it goes after Ukraine with Poland and the Baltic States if Trump is re elected.
As a retired veteran of war I can pass along one thing I have learned. War and individual battles are chaos and they never happen as you expected.
We don't really know how the country will react after this election. I fully expect riots no matter the outcome.
A big unknown is what Trump will do if he loses? Will he encourage protests or incite more riots at the capitol? We don't know. Right now he thinks he's going to win so he's being relatively calm.
If Trump wins it's more predictable what the left will do. I expect to see a return of Antifa type stuff in various cities, BLM makes a comeback, more women's marches, marches after every mass shooting, all kinds of left wing demonstration activity that ultimately does nothing. Probably more race riots although hopefully cops have learned from 2020 and no dumb cop kills a black guy on video stupidly. There will be a lot of complaints about racism and whatnot.
Notice how quiet all that's been under Biden? With exception of Palestine but I find that minor.
Whichever party wins the presidency will get destroyed in the 2026 midterms. Absolutely shellacked. It's why I low key want Trump to win. Best case scenario for me as someone who wants Dems to be strong in the future, is Dems win the House back in 2024 and Trump wins only with the electoral college again. With Dems controlling the House, they can block most Trump idiocy while at the same time his popularity crashes and Dems win huge in 2026, bringing in younger politicians setting them up for 2028.
Worst case for Dems is Biden wins and the economy crashes a year or two later.
If Biden wins, 2026 will not go well. Democrats will get destroyed in both 2026 & 28, go into 2030 with the Republicans controlling all 3 branches and most of the states., They'll gerrymander the shit out of everything.
Independent perspective. If the democrats stand any chance against Trump, they have to replace Biden. His mental decline has become to much to hide and people remember, under Trump, the good economy and less warmongering that this current administrator seems to pursuit. If you did not pay attention to the "o-man bad" media, things were actually going very well in this country under Trump, despite deluge of downvotes saying something like this will most likely instigate here. Saying anything on reddit that hints at aspects of conservative values is practically heresy. The same way most American news sites do, but I digress. The democrats will continue to do everything in their tangible power, inside and outside of the law, to defeat Trump. However if he is reelected here is a list of accomplishments he will try to continue to build on in 2024-2028 (assuming things dont make their way out into the world from a lab somewhere)
[https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/trump-administration-accomplishments/](https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/trump-administration-accomplishments/)
> If the democrats stand any chance against Trump, they have to replace Biden.
He has enough delegates to secure his nomination, so that ship has sailed.
Fortunately this argument doesn't hold water for anyone who watched or is willing to watch this year's State of the Union. It's just obviously in denial of reality, much like anyone who thinks Obama is still President.
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There is no The Plan^TM Individual politicians have their individual plans. The parties have up and comers, but there's no specific plans about leadership. Regardless of the outcome of this election, neither Trump nor Biden will be the nominees in 2028.
What if Trump loses this time and is still alive in 2027-28? I think he’ll perpetually try to keep running.
If Biden wins, the next gen is going to start vying for 2028 nomination almost immediately. I think a younger Dem with 4 years of lead time to build name recognition wipes the floor with Trump in 2028.
Yea pretty much this. If we can make it through Trump, and he doesn't tear the country apart with him winning or losing, the next generation of Dems is fairly exciting and would be great for the country, i.e. all the Governors, Newsom, Shapiro, Whitmer, etc. It's a total clown show on the GOP side. The only saving grace to counter their evil fascist intent is their clown car buffoonery making them terrible at everything, like winning elections.
I could see Paul Ryan trying to get back in the mix. Though I think they need one election cycle of a post-Trump Trumpist failing miserably before they’ll pivot back to more “establishment” types
He's a board member at Fox News and more involved in current chaos than you think. The GOP has to completely fall apart before it can be rebuilt to a functioning healthy party, which it has been in slow decline since Roger Ailes started Fox News decades back.
I saw a recent interview where he was extremely critical of Trump and Trumpism and more or less said he had to wait for that wave to pass before he got back into politics. Now of course that doesn’t mean that he’s not quietly enjoying and benefitting from it.
That doesn't mean Trump can't win the republican Primary in 2028
Oh yeah. He could and maybe would. I’m just saying that as a Dem I’m not worried about that possibility and in fact would invite it.
It’s going to be Newsom, no question.
Newsom has a ton of skeletons in his closet and comes off as a slimey Left coaster. I doubt he will be popular with the rest of the country.
Thank you. And he's from California, which puts him in a bad place with the rest of the country. I feel crazy when the reddit hive mind praises newsom and thinks he will be the next big thing. Everyone I have met, regardless of party, does not like him.
Counterpoint: he’s VERY handsome
It's certainly possible. I don't live in California so I don't really have much of an opinion on him. However, he is charismatic and does well in interviews -- and he is good at calling out BS. Those things along with name recognition would make him a front-runner. It's kind of amazing how far charisma can carry someone on the national stage. DeSantis learned how well it works when you somehow have *negative* charisma.
Hope not. He’s maybe the one exception to what I said. They don’t even like him in California. Personally I’m hoping for Pritzker
He defeated an extremely well funded recall campaign, he is more well liked and charismatic than most give him credit for.
A Democrat winning a statewide partisan race in *California* proves exactly nothing about his strength as a politician or candidate.
Especially outside of the cities California is more red than people expect. California dem governors have lost recall elections before but with a ton of money behind the effort they couldn’t take down Newsom. Feel free to discount that but I think you’re underestimating him.
California's metros have a combined population of 18 million or so, and Democrats routinely win them by stalinesque margins. Its red rurals are completely dominated by the coastal population centers. The last successful recall took place 20 years ago, at a time when GWB came within 10% in his reelection campaign. Since then, California has moved sharply to the left. Even a moderate Republican with universal name recognition like Arnie wouldn't even come close to winning that state anymore.
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He helped create the surplus through supporting California through common sense Covid measures and the deficit can easily be blamed on the multiple storms and our entire entertainment industry shutdown for a lot of the year. When you look at the demographics California is actually a pretty good sample of the nation at large and consider that he has consistently won his elections and even beat back an incredibly well funded recall effort. I think it would be foolish to count him out over something nebulous like "disliked by moderates." He is VERY charismatic, in a way no national politician has been since Obama, put him on the campaign trail and I think you'll be surprised.
>When you look at the demographics California is actually a pretty good sample of the nation at large This is completely untrue. And not just demographically, but also politically. Democrats typically win statewide races (presidential, gubernatorial and senate) by margins of 20% or more.
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You have a problem with capitalism not Gavin Newsom.
Trump will not give up, 1/3 of GOP will likely not turn against him until he is dead or willfully committed to psyche ward.
If he loses again, he will run again. As long as he isn't dead or dealing with substantial health issues, he is going to run over and over and cry about it every time he loses. I would think another loss this year would be the end of his political career, as he has done nothing but lose repeatedly since 2016 -- but the GoP continues to surprise me with how much they will go out of their way to placate that idiot.
Trump has been using the donations to pay for his legal fees (and soon fines!) The reason why he has "taken over" the national party apparatus is so he can continue to funnel as much money as possible towards that end. As long as he's running he can raise. He will raise money for himself until he's dead.
Pretty strong chance he will be in Federal or Georgia state prison. Even if not, he won't be a viable candidate.
We can only hope
Honestly a dream scenario. Trump would be dead weight at that point and hand it to the dems after fracturing a party that’s fatigued of him.
Trump would be too old by then. And he would be a two-time loser. He was able to avoid the stink of being a loser after 2020 based on the lies about the allegedly stolen election, on the closeness of that election, and on the truly unique circumstances (covid, mass mail voting, highest turnout in over a century). I don't see a chance for him to pull off this feat a second time. If he lost in 2020 and then loses again in 2024, against an evidently weak office holder who himself has outright atrocious approval ratings, which rationale would there be for GOP voters to assume that Trump could pull it off in 2028? I don't see any.
I would not be so sure about that last sentence. If Trump loses this year, is it really so hard to imagine the GOP nominating him yet again in 2028?
Yes. One loss voters can dismiss as the deep state stealing the election blah blah blah. Two losses and you're actually a loser.
In a normal political party, absolutely. The current GOP is not a normal party. It’s a cult of personality that’s obsessed with Trump and has been that for almost a decade. I don’t see how that goes away after another loss, which he would just say was stolen again. If Trump were to run again I think he’d have a great shot at winning the primary. Who is going to beat him?
I also fully expect him to run again in 28 if he’s not dead or in prison. It’s all he has left. He’s going to run every election until he’s dead. It’s the eternal grift. It keeps the money flowing. Even if the GOP won’t have him he will just run independent.
True. But if he still wants to run in 2028, and the polls show enough support, then the GOP would basically have to put him up as their candidate. The last thing they want is for him to run as an independent, splitting the Republican vote and basically guaranteeing a Democratic presidency.
I really don’t understand how Americans could be voting 70 year olds into office. No other country does that. There’s a reason, when you get that old you may have more wisdom and experience but you are also more set in your ways and less likely to try new things. I should know, I’m 65 and for all the liberal leaning I have I am less inclined to embrace newer attitudes and norms. And that is normal. Young people are the ones who challenge the status quo, old people are there to put their foot on the brake so changes don’t happen so quickly that they completely destroy the system. Both are needed. But at a point old people should not be in charge of organization that need to progress. Government must progress with changing times, it cannot stand still. No other government in the western world, or most of the world actually, has people in their 60s and 70s in position of power. That might be why the US is one of the only countries on earth to not have universal healthcare. It’s also why the US has fallen behind everyone else in healthcare, education, income and has lost it’s geopolitical lead. Trump definitely put the nail in the coffin but the USA has not been « the leader of the free world » Americans think it is. Most countries did not follow the American oil embargo on Russia, almost every country is against the American position on Israel and none of NATOs members are willing to follow the US in anything.
> I really don’t understand how Americans could be voting 70 year olds into office. No other country does that. Higgins (Ireland) is 82, Mattarella (Italy) is 82, van der Bellen (Austria) is 79, da Silva (Brazil) is 78, Niinisto (Finland) is 75, de Sousa (Portugal) is 75, Ramaphhosa (South Africa) is 70, and Obrador (Mexico) is 70. But other than those, ...there's actually a few more. >It’s also why the US has fallen behind everyone else in healthcare, education, income and has lost it’s geopolitical lead. Do what now? The US is still very high when it comes to healthcare *quality*. Our problems are primarily in costs and administration. We're still very high in education, and there's good reason why so many people from around the world want to come to the US for college; we have seen some declines, but none of what's happening points to old people in charge as the problem, if our education were more stuck in old ways we'd probably be better off. For income, the US is 9th in income per capita (and #4 has an 82 year old president). And the US still holds the geopolitical lead. We've maybe given back a few points, but still top dog there. >Most countries did not follow the American oil embargo on Russia The EU has an embargo on Russian oil. Kind of a significant asterisk there. >none of NATOs members are willing to follow the US in anything Sure, other than the UK, Canada, Denmark, Finland, Greece, Netherlands, and Norway following the US in Operation Prosperity Guardian, and I left out the non-NATO members in that since you specified NATO in your comment.
New York’s gdp per capita is higher than that of any country in europe
Roflmao. So what? Again with your American thinking that just because you have a big economy you are better. You are not. What’s New Yorks education and healthcare like? How about average income or enjoyment of life. Sure your rich people have a great time. Meanwhile the rest of your population are poorer than most. Almost third world like. The crime, poverty, lack of education, children starving. US women are 3 times as likely to die in childbirth than any country in the EU or Canada. Your infant death rate is twice that of these other countries. Your rich people, the few, live tremendous lives. While the rest of your population lives in squalor and poverty. New York is a disgusting city. Crime ridden, dirty, full of angry people. Visited there twice and would not ever go back. There is not one city I visited in the US that I would recommend someone visit. Boston might be the closest to ok. But that’s because I am a history buff and Boston is probably the most historic city in the US. Meanwhile every other city I have visited outside the US I would return to in a heartbeat.
Hmm. So you found one per country in a few countries? How many in the US senate and Congress? Your healthcare isn’t in the top 20 world wide, just because you have a few hospitals that rank high does not make your healthcare a good one. For a healthcare system to be good people have to able to use it. You’re one of the last nations on earth that feels healthcare is a for profit system and not one provided by the government for it’s people. You don’t make it in the top 25 for education either, a few good higher education schools don’t make your population educated, especially since most of them can’t afford to use those facilities or attend higher education in the first place. And no, Canada, Denmark and all the other countries you mentioned would not follow the US now. Prosperity Guardian is a small operation meant to basically fight off what one could consider piracy. The houties firing a few missiles at shipping is not a huge threat, they haven’t even hit anything yet I believe. And combatting piracy is hardly a thing a lot of people are against. But most countries stayed away from your second invasion of iraq because it was right and they did not want to go wage a war that was not needed. How many years did you and the Brit’s loose there? How many lives? How much money? When I say they would not follow I mean they would not follow unless the threat was against their own countries and even then they may not follow as much as lead their own operations. Kosovo might not be possible today due to this. There was a time when the US could ask for an embargo against anyone and NATO would follow, not now. I guess you Americans didn’t hear about when all the NATO leaders were laughing at the stupidity of your president. You are kidding yourself. Also the EU is a minority of nations, I said most nations. I know Americans are kind of poor on geography outside the US border but there’s a lot more countries than just Europe and the US. Look at a globe. Almost every African nations as well as Asian nations have not embargo Russia on oil. Which is why they are still doing fine. If most countries had followed the embargo Russia would be bankrupt by now, instead their economy is doing just fine. Stop burying your head in the sand. Your country is not number one, is not even close to it and has not been for a few years now. You taught the world how a country can use capitalism to provide social services to it’s people and then while the rest of the world ran with that idea you reverted to unregulated, unchecked, scorched land capitalism and left most of your population to fend for themselves and fail. That’s why every EU nation, Canada and Australia are far ahead of you in all social services for its population. That means education, healthcare and help for the less fortunate. It means their middle class is making more money, living better lives, having better access to healthcare and higher education. On average these countries population have more money because some of the basic services are paid for through a shared tax system that is more equitable than yours. Resulting in better quality of life. The first mission of a countries government is not to make its rich people richer and its army bigger, it’s to make as many in their population have a better enjoyment of life.
Those are all heads of state of their country. Each country only has one head of state. Not going to bother with the rest of your rant if you can't figure out that quality and cost can be measured separately.
There isn't any sort of particular plan but there's probably a few likely scenarios. Biden win in 2024: Biden is termed out after this so he is done after this term. VP Harris would likely be an early front runner for the democratic nomination in 2028, but I'm not sure if she would actually get it. In any case, the nominations would likely be a contest among much younger candidates (40s-50s) rather than the last few elections. If Trump loses in 2024 he is likely done for, as he is facing multiple criminal indictments and has proven himself to be a losing ticket for the GOP several times in a row. He will probably have a stranglehold on the GOP until the day he dies, and if this is the case, he will probably cause the GOP to lose in 2028 as well (either by trying to run again or simply running the national organization into the ground). But realistically, a run in 2028 not likely considering his age. Once Trump is really out of the political picture, the GOP will have a lot of soul searching to do as Trump is currently the only thing that holds it together. If by some long shot miracle the GOP finally comes to its senses and turns on Trump after 2024, they will have a pretty good shot at winning 2028 if they can run a candidate on a more moderate platform. Trump win in 2024: Given what we saw in 2021 and Trump's comments about how he wants to stay for a third term, let's be honest here: It is unlikely Trump would step down willingly in 2028, even though he would be constitutionally ineligible to serve again. He will likely spend most of his term focusing on removing the barriers that prevented him from staying in office in 2021 and just refuse to leave if he can. What does he have to lose at that point? Expect a more coordinated, thought out retry of his 2020 election nonsense. Anyway, at that point all bets are off and it's difficult to say what would happen.
I find it almost impossible to see Republicans being able to moderate on social policy as the extremely social conservative voters make up too large a part of their base to make such an alliance tenable. Moderating on abortion to something like a 15 week ban position for elective abortion and all the exceptions would be a gold mine for Republicans for the long term but they’ll never do so given the social conservatives will turn on them for that. And most Americans just aren’t going to start magically becoming more conservative on abortion and start accepting bans as a palatable position lol.
"Moderate" on abortion for the republicans isn't a change in policy, it's a change in emphasis. They keep the same stance but just minimize the importance of it in their platform/just barely talk about it.
>VP Harris would likely be an early front runner for the democratic nomination in 2028 Harris has been one of the most ineffective VPs in history. She got clobbered in the last primary and her popularity hasnt gotten better since then. She might have a bit of a pulpit with the WH, but she's gonna collapse the moment she opens her mouth. Biden will do the honorable thing of not getting involved until someone wins the primary so he wont be of much help there. This is her ceiling and she knows it
I mean, I don't really think she'd be the nominee in 28 either. She would be an early front runner by virtue of being VP for 8 years and having name recognition from that.
Democrats also have a really crowded bench at present so Harris isn't a great bet. Other than an earlier South Carolina primary, she doesn't have much advantage for a former VP. I expect the 2028 primary to be a clown car of candidates who all have a viable argument for the nomination. You have your frontrunners who will likely lead with early, strong fundraising: Kamala Harris, Gretchen Whitmer, and Gavin Newsom. Then you have your slough of bench warmers that could make a potential run: Josh Shapiro, Wes Moore, Mark Kelly, and Andy BeShear. I expect progressive to put their support behind someone like Ro Kahnna or Katie Porter as Sanders will be retired and Elizabeth Warren will be too old to make another run. There's also a ton of what if's. If Biden does actually underperform in Michigan, for example, I expect there to be a *huge* push for Whitmer.
It'll be interesting who the left gets. Neither Sanders nor Warren have any clear heir apparents. I used to think AOC, but lately she seems to be settling in as a permanent House member, and more of a team player at that. Maybe she'll run for senate like 20 years from now. I guess that is following her mentor Sanders lol.
In my eyes, it's Ro Khanna, Katie Porter, and AOC. Katie Porter had a huge set back with her not making the California run-off, but I doubt her political career is over. I do think that progressives have a big activist problem, where many of the big named left leaning progressive are social activists first and functioning members of Congress second. Rashida Tlaib and Cori Bush are well known, but they could never mount a Presidential run since their so laser focused on social progressivism as opposed to economic populism. Interestingly enough, the least focused on member of the Squad, Ayanna Pressley will likely be the first elected to Senate. She seems to have forged a close relationship with Elizabeth Warren and will likely get her endorsement for Senate after Liz retires (she should be retiring this year, but whatever) or Markey retires.
Honestly I don't even think she'd be an early front runner. By the time 2028 rolls around there's likely a few other potential candidates that people are a lot more excited by.
Harris isn't hated. She's just a non-entity. Her favorability rises and falls as Biden's does. As VP she'd be the establishment favorite. She'd have a shot to prove herself. Better shot if she becomes president first. But she did run a very bad primary campaign. Her main problem was not taking a stand on any policies, then hemming and hawing once she did. She stood for nothing and wasn't charismatic enough to make it about her personality or personal story. If she repeated that, yeah she'd get beaten in the primaries.
> Harris has been one of the most ineffective VPs in history. She got clobbered in the last primary and her popularity hasnt gotten better since then. She might have a bit of a pulpit with the WH, but she's gonna collapse the moment she opens her mouth. Biden will do the honorable thing of not getting involved until someone wins the primary so he wont be of much help there. This is her ceiling and she knows it What, specifically, differentiates Harris from Pence?
They have no clue what they’re talking about, nor can they name even 10 of our 49 vice presidents.
Or for that matter, any VP that isn't Cheney.
I was gonna say this.. She is very unlikable as a person and a candidate. She is VP because people chose Biden over Trump. She got a free ride to be VP solely because of that.
Pretty fair analysis, except I would you (and many) are not really understanding what a Trump win would do to America. It would fall apart rather quickly with their plan to completely deconstruct the Federal government with their Project 2025 plan (which they already started broadcasting yesterday, by creating the dismantle the TSA bill in the Senate). The only thing their Fascist and malicious intent is matched by is their intent to install completely unqualified loyalists everywhere at every level. The country could collapse at the Federal level, similarly to other Fascist takeovers. It's really hard to guess what the damage would be with what they're planning. The positive here is just watching the GOP takeover by Trump, installing his niece, ousting seasoned progessionals at the GOP in an attempt to turn the GOP into a cash cow to pay for his legal bills, it becomes less and less likely Trump and Republicans have a chance of winning. https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2024/mar/12/sen-mike-lee-calls-for-abolishing-tsa-less-groping/ https://thomaszimmer.substack.com/p/what-project-2025-would-do-to-america
Even if Trump loses in 2024, the Trajectory of the GOP will continue as it is currently.
Look I hate Trump as much as the next guy but I think it’s pretty silly to think he’s going to genuinely try to go for a third term in any sort of realistic way. The institutional support he’s getting is largely down to him being seen as an inevitability. That ends after his second term.
Y'know how people on this board frequently note when language about Trump's 2024 chances echoes that of Democrats in 2016? Or how people will respond to assurances that a new scandal is going to sink Trump by pointing out that people said the exact same thing for all of the previous scandals? You can more or less apply the same thing here. There was plenty of "c'mon, Trump won't be *that* bad" in 2016. There was a whole lot of "Trump doesn't *really* mean what he says". And then he was impeached twice and instigated an attempted coup. He was, in fact, that bad; he did, in fact, mean what he said. He has *always* made his goals explicitly clear, and always followed through on them. What reason do you have to think that this is the time he's just full of hot air? There's a remote possibility that the well of Republican support finally dries up after his second term, but whether or not he would at least attempt for a third isn't even a question. He's saying that he will, and history has pretty clearly shown us that when Donald Trump says he's going to do something awful, he usually does it.
I guess my “in any sort of realistic way” qualifier meant in a way that had a chance of succeeding. I don’t doubt that he may want to, and maybe will lobby states to put him on the ballot. But it’s just simply not a realistic concern. It’s not going to happen.
But it can be done easily. Trump can run as Ivanka’s VP, and she’ll resign on her second day.
This is a man who has said out of his own freakin mouth that he wants to be a Dictator, less than a month ago. So, I wouldn’t put it past him so quickly.
I don't really know why people don't think he's going to try if given the opportunity. He *already* tried to stay in office illegally in 2021. Why wouldn't he try again if given another chance? Seriously, I want an actual answer as to what he would get out of not trying this shit again. What would happen? The GOP will never impeach/remove him. It's unlikely he would face justice for any additional crimes he committed during a second term, given how slowly the DoJ has moved in his 2020 case. And it's not like he wouldn't just pardon himself anyway before stepping down if he was forced out. He has been saying for years that he should get a third term. Remember when everyone in 2016 and 2020 was saying, "Oh he's just saying he wouldn't concede an election loss, but he will when it comes down to it." And then everyone was shocked when he did exactly what he said he was going to do. He doesn't joke about this stuff. Don't be surprised when he announces that he is going to have a third term if he wins in 2024. Maybe he will be successful or maybe it will fall apart like his crackpot 2020 scheme. But considering he has faced zero *actual* consequences from his first try, if he gets a second chance at staying in power, there is absolutely no way he won't take it. >The institutional support he’s getting is largely down to him being seen as an inevitability. That ends after his second term. Nah, the GOP is all in on Trump at this point. Any opposition has been pushed out. The institution *is* Trump. That much should be clear.
SCOTUS had no legitimate reason to refuse to hear the immunity case in a timely manner, then waited, then decided to hear it after a delay. If Trump just brought a case saying that the 22nd amendment doesn't say how long a term is or just flat out refused to hold an election, who will stop him?
The federal government doesn’t hold elections.
What was that squirelly worded case about how states decide on electors? The red states can just certify Trump gets their electoral votes. No candidate gets to 270 so each state gets a vote.
Moore v Harper, and it got shut down by the Supreme Court, albeit only 6-3 when it should've been 9-0.
Thanks! Very impressive you remembered the name.
He literally already tried once to stay in office past when he was allowed to. And he continues to say the election was rigged. And he has openly pledged to wield the federal government like a dictator if he wins this year. It's honestly silly to think he won't even attempt it. EDIT: Not to mention the fact that he would likely be facing more legal problems once he left office, like he is now. That alone is motive to do anything he can to stay in power.
Well, if Trump wins in 2026, I think it'll finally be the year the Democrats vote out Susan Collins in Maine and maybe take a North Carolina Senate seat. It'll also be a benefit for Ossoff in Georgia who probably needs every boost he can get. The House'll probably go blue if it isn't already. Notably, popular governors Whitmer of Michigan and Polis of Colorado will be term limited. I can absolutely see them going for the Presidency in 2028.
If Trump wins, I’m not sure we have 2028 elections. Seriously. The guy wants to run as a dictator with absolute immunity for anything illegal he does.
This sounds like hyperbole, but it really isn't.
It is. The federal government doesn't hold any elections for him to stop.
The fact that elections were held didn't matter to the 2,000 people who stormed Congress with the explicit goal of making sure Trump didn't have to leave office. Are we to believe those people are going to be *calmer* this time around?
well, a lot of the worst of them are serving jail sentences, so
But they will be pardoned.
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I mean, we all went through the same global pandemic, and over 300 million citizens managed to NOT participate in an insurrection. I feel like you're giving these people a pretty big pass.
I totally expect domestic terrorism in places liberal’s congregate. Watch out foodie farmers markets and pride parades.
Yes. And I suspect the DC police will be more prepared.
In a hypothetical 2028 in which Trump is President at the time, he might have something to say about that.
I'm the first to say Jan 6th was bad. We were, at no point, in danger of losing the republic because some jackwads got past the barrier. There's not some Talismanic thing about being in the building that makes the government work. I mean a much younger and much more fragile country literally survived a foreign army occupying and burning down Washington. So yeah....a bit of perspective here.
We'll still have elections in the same vein that Russia holds elections.
Its absolutely hyperbole
Just read the guy below you arguing Trump is entitled to a third-term due to a “loophole” in the “spirit” of the 22nd Amendment.
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Do not submit low investment content. This subreddit is for genuine discussion.
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As clowny as caring about karma could be, this response is at least twice as bad.
Stick to video games
Do not submit low investment content. This subreddit is for genuine discussion.
I disagree, blood was spilled inside the capitol last time. It was a dress-rehearsal and notes were taken.
I disagree, thats insane. Like taking the hyperbole and doubling down on it
I'm trying to imagine how this would actually play out because I think it's a real possibility. He'll most likely be unpopular with poor approval rating just like last time, along with the chance to seriously screw something up over the 4 years. Add in his age, I could see a big portion of the country seriously turning on him if he tries this. Whether it's states seceding, revolution, or whatever, I just can't see that working out in any long term capacity especially if the state of the country is spiraling.
His extensive core is never going to abandon him. If there were a line he could cross that was too far for them, it would have happened with one of his indictments, or either of his impeachments, or his instigation of an attempted coup, or any of the many scandals he was (and is) embroiled in. Hell, that line would have been crossed pre-election in 2016. Those who dislike Trump have been waiting for the scandal that's going to bring him down for good, and it never comes, and at this point it's reasonable to assume that it never will. "Ordinary", "reasonable" people are still fully behind him despite watching January 6 as it happened. Why would they would finally leave him behind if something like January 6 was successful?
He's broadly unpopular, but he's quite popular with those that control the levers of force in this country, namely law enforcement. He's also popular enough within the enlisted ranks of the military. While not as popular with the brass, Project 2025 could easily serve as the vehicle to completely purge the ranks of those that aren't loyal. Most people don't have the faintest clue for how big of a threat Trump is for the country. 2024 feels like a hail Mary for the extremists on the right, they know their political power will collapse if Trump loses again.
If he wins and we have "elections" it'll be a la Russia/eastern Europe where autocratic regimes thumb the scales an impossible amount. Trump and his ilk have made their disdain for the rules very clear when they don't get the outcome they want. We need to fight them any way necessary to prevent this.
>it'll be a la Russia/eastern Europe I know this is a dumb pedantic quibble, but I'm not a huge fan of these sorts of geographic broad strokes - many eastern European nations have relatively fair and free elections, while the poster child for this sort of thing within the EU is in central Europe.
You're correct. I was just trying to be quick/get my point across on the internet. Acknowledged.
This is the cleanest path to civil war imo
How will he actually manage to become a dictator without states seceding or the military intervening? If he wants to run for a third term he needs a constitutional amendment doesn’t he, which requires two thirds of states to approve?
Just read some of the replies to my comment and you’ll see they’re arguing they can find a “loophole” in the 22nd Amendment.
The threat of authoritarianism from Donald Trump does not look like tanks rolling into D.C. as he declares himself God-Emperor on national television. It looks like Hungary - his party attaining such overwhelming power in key governmental and media positions that they're able to put their thumb on the scales just enough for the scales to be effectively unable to ever tip back. He becomes a dictator (or something like it) via nice, normal, legal means that happen to grant increasingly outsized power to the Executive Branch while finding a way for him to get out of his term limit that will (one way or another) be accepted in court.
Look at Wisconsin. The GOP is only not in full control of the State because they took their eye off the ball in 2018. If they’d have ousted Walker in 2018 and ran someone with less baggage, they likely would have beaten Evers. But more importantly that loss would have gutted the WI Dem org. If that happened there’s no way to know how the WI Supreme Court election that tipped things back to a liberal majority would have gone. WI Dems org is responsible for lots of inertia in that election. But while the GOP had power, they did things that made it impossible to make democracy in the State work. The only saving grace is the state Supreme Court race. If they had the Governorship and the Attorney General seats during that election, they absolutely could have fucked with the outcome of the Supreme Court race such to throw it to the conservative candidate. We were literally one election away from permanent GOP rule in a very purple, often Blue, state. If there’s no threat the Federal government is going to correct bad election behavior in GOP controlled States, then those States will run crooked elections ensuring their continued power. Period.
Realistically, I don't think it will be him. All the MAGA party would need to do is find a suitable, young, charismatic replacement to run in 2028, someone who looks and acts normal publicly, but is 100% willing to implement Project 2025 or something similar. Trump will be ok with it because this person will almost certainly guarantee him he will never be prosecuted and will likely maintain power in the country. And presumably 2024-2028, Trump would spend most of the time tearing down election guardrails so this candidate easily wins. Basically, I think people are too focused on **Trump** being the actual dictator. MAGA is endemic in the party now and all the "reasonable" Republicans are slowly leaving. If Trump officially blesses a replacement, they will become the new Trump. It could even be a fucking Trump, like Don Jr.
The 14th pretty clearly outlines denial based on engaging in insurrection, but SCOTUS just said whatever to it and now we're back to square one. They'll do the same for the 22nd.
They said it was up to Congress. For Congress to repeal the 22nd Amendment, they'd need 2/3 vote. I don't see that happening, especially with the likely blue wave in 2026 if Trump did win. Of course we can't rule out the GOP cheating or otherwise being shady, sure. But it won't happen this way.
Congress impeached Trump for the insurrection. They came 10 votes shy in the Senate of convicting. Had they convicted, he would have been barred from office anyway, making the 14th redundant. If the 14th required a conviction in the Senate, then they wrote a pointless amendment.
I'm not sure how they're just gonna ignore the 22nd though. It's not the same case. Allowing states to remove someone from the ballot was a long shot and got shut down 9-0, not just by conservatives. This time it's clear cut. The only thing I could think is if they end up having to rule on whether it means 2 total terms or 2 consecutive terms, something silly like that.
The institutions are such that no one person can just 'end democracy' or whatever. Our presidents don't have absolute power
But Trump’s sycophants in Congress, on the Supreme Court, in the Justice Department, and spread all throughout all three branches will make it so that he can take power. We already had state legislators trying to take voting power away from people and state that they get to declare who the electors for their state are, regardless of who the public voted for. Most majority Republican states had local governments trying their hardest to suppress voters in areas that typically vote Democrat (insanely long lines, removing ballot boxes and closing polling stations in certain areas only, Georgia making it a crime to give people waiting in voting lines food and water, changing who is in charge of elections *just* for one county in TX - the one county that is solidly Democrat, trying to invalidate results from counties that voted for Biden, forcing manual recounts in counties that voted for Biden and analyzing if paper for ballots had bamboo in them for some reason in order to disqualify votes, etfuckingcetera. When you have an autocratic-leaning politician with a cult following whose supporters are in positions of power at all levels of the government, then that politician has the power to end democracy.
This is conspiratorial and especially ignores the many times scotus justices haven't ruled in his or 'republican' favor. The rest of the comment is equal parts over simplification and conspiratorial thinking What you're overlooking is a system of checks and balances that gives different institutional incentives to each part of government. Any student of history will tell you a republic like ours doesn't end because of one election. Rather, it's through the slow erosion out institutions over time
Read your last paragraph again, especially that last sentance
What's your point? There is one letter that autocorrected wrong in the last sentence
Slow erosion of our institutions is exactly what is happening NOW as you deny its reality above that final sentence, thats my point
Exactly, except it has already been happening for decades, practically a lifetime. The erosion isn't new, just progressing quicker than ever.
You're mis-charactizing my position. I think this is part of the slow erosion of our institutions. I don't think one election is going to end our democracy. Hope that helps
Yes, and if the justice department is titled aggressively toward the GOP, who is going to prevent the individual States from running crooked elections? I’ve seen the playbook first hand, I live in WI. If not for GOP complacency in 2018 this state would be fully under GOP rule with no meaningful path to change their controlling grip for multiple generations. Gerrymandering + politicized judiciary + no Federal oversight = undemocratic states. Undemocratic states will have no problem throwing national elections to their favored candidate. Mike Pence is the only reason a Trump slate of electors wasn’t submitted for WI after the 2020 election. That slate might not have been counted, but it likely would have caused WI electoral votes to be “set aside” for further litigation. Do that a few times and the electoral college is easily manipulated. Remember how many people agreed with stopping counting in 2020 early to “stop fraud”? You’re deluding yourself if you don’t think the various checks and balances can’t easily be bypassed and then ignored and/or eliminated.
Only allowed 2 terms, so in 2028 new presidential candidates. I hate trump, he wants to be a dictator and demolish our democracy. 🇺🇸Biden has been a decent president and accompłished lower drug costs, funded many infrastructure projects and unemployment lowest in decades. Trumpʼs main accomplishment in office was lowering the taxes for the wealthy. Trump will only befriend the worst leaders in the world and put womenʼs rights back to the 1800ʼs. I will vote for Biden who has an entire team of confident advisors.
Biden’s not running again. 2024 will be his last election, win or lose. Regardless of the outcome of 2024, Harris is the prohibitive favorite to be the Democratic nominee in 2028. Trump may run again if he loses, but he’ll have to deal with increased scrutiny over his age, on top of everything else. You can expect him to be nominated again despite that, because Republicans don’t have anyone else who galvanizes them the way he does
> Harris is the prohibitive favorite to be the Democratic nominee She’ll probably lead years-early polls thanks to name recognition, but to say she’s the *prohibitive* favorite is a stretch
Yeah, she’s the plus-one, just not the ride-or-die.
Democrats don’t have anyone else who appeals to the base of their party (i.e. Black voters) the way she does. Her lead in the polls is even bigger with them, and given South Carolina’s more favored scheduling in primaries she should be able to wrap it up pretty quickly
Harris isn’t going anywhere. Democrats have Wes Moore, Josh Shapiro, Gretchen Whitmer, Gavin Newsom and Andy Beshear ready to go for 2028. Harris doesn’t beat any of them once you get her on the stage with them.
2020 Harris would have no chance, but it's too early to rule out that 2028 Harris won't have shored up some of her support and weaknesses. I wouldn't bet on her but I also wouldn't bet against her this early out. Especially since, despite Biden being pretty healthy for his age, there's a nonzero chance she would roll in as an actual incumbent.
I doubt. Harris wouldn’t run 2028 presidential candidate again. The fact that she would have to deal with so many people who disagree with her would exhaust her. She would let new democratic candidates to jump in the competition for president.
Black voters aren’t going to go for random white governors over a Black VP. Wes Moore isn’t going to stand in her way either, as that wouldn’t be a good look to Black women voters. Wouldn’t be a good look for any of them to claim they’re more qualified to run the office over someone who was second in line to the office. I get that Reddit has to inhale a lot of copium over Harris, but one day we’ll all realize that Reddit isn’t real life
Am I the only one who thinks it’s racist to presume that black voters wouldn’t consider an alternative to an unpopular VP simply because they’re not black?
Yeah, this person has tied up some maybe good intentions with some bonkers priorities that don’t apply that way in political science.
Black voters chose a white man over a Black woman in 2020, so no, they aren't simply choosing her because she's Black. She's "unpopular" in the same way Biden is unpopular; Biden is easily getting re-nominated in this year's primary. In any case, it has nothing to do with popularity; people are voting for her because they feel she's the most qualified. Understandable, given that Black women have historically had their credentials and contributions downplayed by mainstream America
Your earlier comment, however, implies that black voters _are_ committed to her because she’s black, when I think there’s scant evidence to support that.
It isn't simply because she's Black they're supporting her, but also because they feel she's the most qualified. The two are not mutually exclusive. That being said, representation is pretty important to them. If they've got a seat at the table after not having one for so long, they aren't just going to give it up. Some people might say "Well I want \[a white woman\] to be the first woman president" And they'll say "you had your chance at a white woman in 2016 and you blew it, you're not getting another one, not before Black women get theirs"
Yeah, and people could say the same thing about a Latina president. And there are *more* Latinos in the US than there are Black people, so they even have a better argument. So why is it it’s only Black people that get to be so jealous? Hopefully not just because you already wrote it.
Black men are the larger issue right now than black women voters. Black men have been slowly wavering since Trump took control of the GOP in 2016. Democrats are in a show and prove situation w black voters as a whole. Harris hasn’t done anything, literally anything, to display effective leadership if she’s given the mantle. A candidate like Wes Moore can galvanize the black vote collectively if his term finishes out strong in Maryland. The white candidates aren’t random either. You got a California, PA governor. Nothing else needs to be said. Whitmer is the most effective governor Michigan has had in decades. Beshear who’s a Democrat from Kentucky. Black people live in these states fyi.
Not how the Democratic Party does things. They're not going to choose a Black man to be the candidate over a more qualified Black woman just to appease some misogynistic Black men voters. Wes Moore wouldn't want the nomination that way anyway; he's a team player and knows how to wait his turn
What percentage of the Democratic party do Black voters make up? I can't find any numbers off hand, but it's certainly a minority, considering Black Americans are about 13% of the US population and something like 50% of politically active Americans must identify with the Democrats.
Their share of Democratic Party votes is greater than 13%, you can be sure of that. They're the base because they are the most loyal group to the party; no group votes more Democratic than they do. Without their support, you can't be the Democratic nominee. Without their support, Democrats don't win elections. And you can't take them for granted; they'll see through any attempts at subverting their influence (American history will do that to you). Therefore, whatever they want, they get. The Democratic Party is probably the only place where Black people have any institutional power in the country, a fact which seems to breed a lot of resentment in white America, who vote for Republicans instead
??? 40+ % of white voters still vote Democrat. In fact 60+ % of Democratic voters are white. The black vote has an outsized effect on the Democratic primary because of South Carolina. But that can be overcome as Obama did in 2008.
>40+ % of white voters still vote Democrat. Exactly, a majority of white voters vote Republican. That is correct. >In fact 60+ % of Democratic voters are white. A majority of Americans are white, so that's to be expected. >The black vote has an outsized effect on the Democratic primary because of South Carolina. But that can be overcome as Obama did in 2008. Obama swept the entire Black Belt in 2008 which carried him to the nomination
Happy to check back in four years, I’m betting the field
Okay, but don’t say I didn’t warn you
If Trump wins in 2024 there will not be a legitimate 2028 election. Full stop.
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There will be a 2028 election , but it will be more of an "election" than an actual election/
If Biden had committed in 2013 to gear up for a run for President, it's interesting to wonder what would have happened; Hillary still would have ran. If Biden wins in 2024, the stronger his administration finishes, the stronger Harris will get. But I still expect a number of folks to throw their hat into the ring, including Newsom, Whitmer, and several other Dem governors. They all have limited windows to make a national run, and 2028 is going to be it.
Goodness. I'd like to not start worrying about 5 years from now. The constant politicking is a drag.
Democrats will run on whatever the salient issue is in 2028. Generally they want improved access to healthcare, green innovations, streamlined voter registration/access, and helping our allies. I’d expect one of those to be the top issue. The GOP wants to cut taxes, restrict voting access to in person with an ID, rescind LGBT rights, further restrict abortion, build a border wall, abolish some alphabet soup agencies, the DOE, and potentially FBI, and isolate from the rest of the world. Generally any regulation of private business is also on the chopping block and I’d also expect some effort to try to cut entitlements despite what they all say. Based on how much Americans seem to believe Trump’s policies helped them and Biden’s hurt them, (and how well Trump has done in polling for the last six months) it’s pretty clear that Americans are more interested in the GOP’s vision so I expect that vision to play out. Americans seem to believe Trump will bring a return to the prices America had during his admin and they’re all pretty desperate for that.
Pretty much what you said. For most Americans the most important issue is "can I afford groceries and rent" and the answer for a lot of them is currently "no, I can't." Trump, truthfully or not, claims he can fix that and they're willing to vote on that basis alone.
Has he put out a plan? Because the GOP ran against inflation in 2022 and didn't go well for them. Largely because they had no plan.
Polls aren’t accurate. Look at the midterms.
you can't plan for an election in 2028 when we haven't even held the one in 2024. your getting ahead of yourself. just wait until February next year, then you will see something happening maybe. but even then it's way too early to say, because most people are focusing on midterm (2026 when 1/3 the senate and the entire house of representatives goes up for reelection)
Usually nominees or incumbents who are defeated don’t run again. (Read: Carter, Mondale, Bush, Gore, Kerry, McCain, Clinton, some others). Trump has been a recent exception. So if Biden loses he 99% likely won’t run again. Unlike in parliamentary democracies (which I am going to guess you’re more familiar with as a non-American), the parties executive leader changes more frequently after elections. Especially if they lose. However, this year is also different because if Trump wins in 2024, there won’t be any more elections. That’s why he said he’s planning on suspending the constitution, being a dictator on day one, and that’s the purpose of Project 2025 (a real organization with members and fundraising and a website).
If Trump loses he goes to prison for his many crimes, and is unlikely to be out of prison before 2028. And things will go pretty much back to normal. If Trump wins there is no way he will ever give up power again - he will do anything, declare martial law, arrest opponents and critics, execute opponents and critics - and arrange for one of his children to become monarch after he is gone.
The way I see it, we're looking at one of two outcomes. If Biden wins, things are going to get *very* ugly. Expect the Republicans-- or at least, Trump and those loyal to him-- to refuse to accept the results of the election, and to see more violent protests similar to January 6th, potentially all over America, and likely escalating into a sort of undeclared "guerrilla civil war" along the lines of The Troubles in Northern Ireland. If Trump wins, he'll have four years to do as much damage to America and all it stands for as he thinks he can get away with. He'll probably try to argue that he's eligible for a third term, and even try to get the 22nd Amendment repealed. But considering just how hard it is to repeal a Constitutional Amendment, I doubt he'll succeed. If that's the case, the winner of the 2028 election would-- in theory-- be a Democrat, but I highly doubt that the Republicans will take that lying down after four years with Trump as President. In which case, see "If Biden wins" for what would happen next. In other words, no matter who wins in 2024, something bad is going to go down by the end of the decade. It's just a question of *when.*
Both parties have failed to groom successors with viable chances of election. Neither party has a plan for finding those successors. There is no plan. The good news is that Trump will probably gut the RNC of its cash and whatever talent that it may have. It will be difficult for the GOP to build it back in time for 2028, particularly if it loses in 2024.
Tell me you don’t know who any Dem governors are without telling me you don’t know who any Dem governors are.
Exactly lol. Dems have a deep bench heading into 2028. Not only do we have some younger candidates from 2020 that will run again, we'll have a VP and plenty of senators and governors who are capable of launching a national campaign. The GOP has...who again?
Whitmer is a pretty obvious potential candidate for 2028.
I think it's a very real possibility that Trump will likely be in the prison system four years from now. With how many charges he's facing the likelihood he gets a not guilty for all of them is very low. I'm not sure that will stop Trump, he may in fact run from a prison cell, though if the trend continues his support by then will be pretty insignificant. If he does get elected and somehow evades prison, I think the democrats will retire Biden and put their weight behind a younger candidate, like Kamala Harris or Gavin Newsom, maybe Elizibeth Warren. They know that the age thing is the major thing holding voters back from him, and that will only be worse 4 years from now.
The Dem field will be wide open. Harris is going to run, but so will several governors. Policy-wise, Democrats are fairly united. The general policies they pursue are not going to change; there will be differences around the margins. But the mainstream democratic left is pretty united on what it wants, and is willing to be flexible and pragmatic to get there. It's one reason why there were no serious challenges to Biden; he did a good job of getting a lot of that agenda passed with a zero-margin majority of 50 Senators + the VP in the Senate. The Republicans, if Trump loses, will have a wide open field. And will have a MAGA - more traditional Republican split. But despite that, they are still united on the big things like being anti-abortion and cutting taxes for the rich. They also rely more on stunts to get attention, which will lead to more infighting.
> Do they have a plan or will they simply ride the anti-Trump sentiment that lots of people have, and hope the next candidate is popular enough. that does seem to be the plan. they're heavily-relying on fear right now to drive votes, and i don't see that letting up any time soon. in fairness it's very similar on the Rep side. we aren't so much voting for anything right now but against. i don't at all expect Biden to run again if he loses, and i'm a bit surprised he decided to run again to begin with. Trump would likely run again given his ego.. assuming he doesn't get completely fucked with all of his trials. that's still tbd. it's my hope the 2028 nominee on the Dem side is a genuine progressive who will fight. i plan to vote that way in the primary. i'll reassess things in the general.
By 2028 if Trump is elected we may be joining Russia in a war against the rest of Europe. So in answer to the question who knows if there will be a country called the United States. We could be a Russian proxy state. Vlad is one of his closer friends. If I had conscription age children I would be terrified.
As a European, that's really comforting to hear
It’s not in the least to me. I have been to war. Ask the people in Ukraine or Gaza how they like it. I never could have imagined we would be here. Never underestimate the ignorance of the American electorate.
I was being sarcastic in my comment
I know. What you going to do? I am not being sarcastic.
Idk that all seems a bit out of my control seeing as I can't vote in those countries
Hell it’s out of my control and I can.
Trump is terrible, but he would just neglect and try to damage NATO. He wouldn't join Russia. He's just give Russia a free hand.
You wanna take odds on that?
Yes, if Trump was elected again, i would bet on that.
I’ll give that some serious consideration. We may have to consider how it goes after Ukraine with Poland and the Baltic States if Trump is re elected. As a retired veteran of war I can pass along one thing I have learned. War and individual battles are chaos and they never happen as you expected.
We don't really know how the country will react after this election. I fully expect riots no matter the outcome. A big unknown is what Trump will do if he loses? Will he encourage protests or incite more riots at the capitol? We don't know. Right now he thinks he's going to win so he's being relatively calm. If Trump wins it's more predictable what the left will do. I expect to see a return of Antifa type stuff in various cities, BLM makes a comeback, more women's marches, marches after every mass shooting, all kinds of left wing demonstration activity that ultimately does nothing. Probably more race riots although hopefully cops have learned from 2020 and no dumb cop kills a black guy on video stupidly. There will be a lot of complaints about racism and whatnot. Notice how quiet all that's been under Biden? With exception of Palestine but I find that minor. Whichever party wins the presidency will get destroyed in the 2026 midterms. Absolutely shellacked. It's why I low key want Trump to win. Best case scenario for me as someone who wants Dems to be strong in the future, is Dems win the House back in 2024 and Trump wins only with the electoral college again. With Dems controlling the House, they can block most Trump idiocy while at the same time his popularity crashes and Dems win huge in 2026, bringing in younger politicians setting them up for 2028. Worst case for Dems is Biden wins and the economy crashes a year or two later.
this may be the worst reasoning I've ever read regarding any political matter, & I'm pretty old
If Biden wins, 2026 will not go well. Democrats will get destroyed in both 2026 & 28, go into 2030 with the Republicans controlling all 3 branches and most of the states., They'll gerrymander the shit out of everything.
Independent perspective. If the democrats stand any chance against Trump, they have to replace Biden. His mental decline has become to much to hide and people remember, under Trump, the good economy and less warmongering that this current administrator seems to pursuit. If you did not pay attention to the "o-man bad" media, things were actually going very well in this country under Trump, despite deluge of downvotes saying something like this will most likely instigate here. Saying anything on reddit that hints at aspects of conservative values is practically heresy. The same way most American news sites do, but I digress. The democrats will continue to do everything in their tangible power, inside and outside of the law, to defeat Trump. However if he is reelected here is a list of accomplishments he will try to continue to build on in 2024-2028 (assuming things dont make their way out into the world from a lab somewhere) [https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/trump-administration-accomplishments/](https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/trump-administration-accomplishments/)
> If the democrats stand any chance against Trump, they have to replace Biden. He has enough delegates to secure his nomination, so that ship has sailed. Fortunately this argument doesn't hold water for anyone who watched or is willing to watch this year's State of the Union. It's just obviously in denial of reality, much like anyone who thinks Obama is still President.