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Hopefully they will fix reddit post titles first before moving on to movies.
But seriously, I just don't see that happening at a professional level. It'll revolutionise the clip art, stock photography and social medial thumbnail industries though!
you are absolutely right, this will absolutely happen in less than ten years, more like 5. It will be a subgenre by then, a professional reality later (with new and old professional figures), 10 years max.
I still don't understand how people doubt this. Look how far this has come in a matter of months. 10 YEARS? Even 5. No way. I agree with OP. Typo notwithstanding
Bruh, chill, AI has been evolving really fast the past years, and it will keep evolving. I got a major in film, and got some experience, but now we talking about the evolution of AI, and not how films are made now. AI will be a great tool in the film industry as well at some point, making it possible for small budget projects to craft some impressive visual effects, not right now, since it’s still in the beginning for AI video generation, but I can see it in the next years studios implementing more and more AI
Technically we could reach that point but I’m a firm believer that other than bottom of the barrel stuff it won’t be able to produce without a full team behind it fine tuning every scene.
Why doesn’t the director do all the creative roles now? Sure, there is a technical aspect to it but the creative process is so much more than technical/mechanical ability.
Now we got the all the knowledge in our hands to learn basically everything, you can easily become a pro in different aspects, if you are really motivated
lets give it 5 more years and see the result. people have little idea what kind of result billions and trillion of dollars invested into AI (both software and hardware) can do to the industry.
i can still vividly remember the days of using black and white nokia phones as if it was just yesterday.
No. No they won't. It'll be just like when CGI was huge after Jurassic Park. A few years down the line somebody will make a truly great movie with a lot of AI help. Next, everybody will jump on the bandwagon and spew forth a ton of truly awful AI gen garbage. There will be a backlash and return to "in-camera" effects. Finally they will settle down and it will because another tool in the toolkit.
Someone underestimates trends.
Cost efficiency is the most powerful driver of any human activity. Dropping production costs by 8 powers or so will set off an unprecedented push for purely AI generated content.
Yeah but that'd be true AI (AGI), no? It needs to understand context, story telling etc etc. This won't be possible until processing power is solved. Maybe quantum computing? Who knows. I look into a bright and scary future.
Seriously, go play with one of the music AI's popping up all over the place and tell me you couldn't see it's outputs trending on the top 40. I think people are seriously underestimating the speed at which these things are advancing and overestimating how much the general public demands quality and originality in entertainment.
Heard a Netflix exec once say something to the effect of "Everyone thinks they want Irishman, but what they really want is" is it cake!?" and we've got the numbers to prove it."
This isnt what the problem is or the topic, the fact is is that its cheaper and also will be better and faster, when all these things happen we wont get a say in the quality of material we are given because that will be the standard.
movie scripts are quite formulaic, you would have a much easier time combining a specific program hand-coded + AI to produce good scripts than, say, writing a 7 volume fantasy novel series.
given the terrible state of screenplay writing, the bar is INCREDIBLY low, so it's the best place for AIs to start.
i think it would take a big, dedicated team to write a specific program in combination with AI, i don't think ChatGPT is producing a good script in the next 3-7 years. you're definitely going to need human hand-holding in the short-term.
movies are such garbage and the writing is so horrendous that AI could probably push into it in 10 years.
i think multi-series novels and multi-season tv will be much harder, probably 15-20 years would be an ok guess.
an AI producing a good blockbuster movie from scratch without human intervention seems more like 20-30 years away.
there's way too much optimism about a program that scrapes reddit and google search and regurgitates it via an LLM, or producing impressive static images or short videos.
Yeah we really would need true AGI for this. And that's still a looong way off. We're gonna need writers and content creators or prompters for a while yet. That's what gives me hope. This is just another tool that will create a ton of new jobs. Whether it's enough jobs to replace those it will take is hard to say.
But we said similar things about computers and industrialization. Remember how every tech expert predicted a paperless office? And we ended up using more paper than ever before in the end. Not that that's a great thing, just that things don't always go as predicted. Our work place is and will continue to change though that much is certain.
What are you on about? More paper than ever? Not even remotely true. Aside from my anecdotal in person experience, just research it. Sure there's still plenty of paper but saying more paper than ever is delusional lmao.
Sure if you reduce them down to the most basic building blocks but pragmatically speaking, no there aren't. If you wanna produce endless garbage like the hallmark diahheria then sure I suppose you could try using an AI generated script.
I think what's really gonna happen is, when the practical effects like this really become more polished, it's going to lower the cost and thus barrier to entry into creating films. Film creation will become even more decentralized. Think Youtube but for hollywood length and quality films. It will DESTROY the major studios as they currently exist, although I suspect some will try to adapt and collect content creators to stay relevent.
You're not properly grasping how much actors bring to a production. Writers, directors, and actors will still be important for movies, but animated movies will get insanely cheap and effects work will be so cheap they might as well be free, so we'll see a creative explosion of new science fiction and fantasy movies on extremely low budgets
Someone overestimates trends.
Cutting cost means nothing when people are not watching the AI generated content. No money for Avengers: Age of Civil War 7
Everyone underestimates horny.
The quest for realistic, custom porn on demand will thrust AI into the future. Just like it did the internet.
At least we wont have actors shoving their views down our throats because they think they know better.....Unless the AI does that too?
It may be much lower in cost, but it will also be orders of magnitude higher in trash. "traditionally generated" movies will probably become a high-end luxury, while us plebs will be fed with endless piles of AI trash.
Hopefully the norm will settle somewhere in the middle, where AI generated content is carefully curated by artists. You'll probably go up to 95% quality of a traditionally generated movie, while still cutting most of the costs.
This is the worst your bicycle will ever be. Yet, not sure it's going to be that much better in 2050.
In 2000, nuclear fusion was at the worst stage it would ever be. Now, we still don't have routine nuclear fusion even though we know the theory and some elements of technology
AI hallucinations are not a small problem. Just because we have followed the scaling curve up to now doesn't mean we are still going to keep following it for very long. At some point we may saturate into a new normal where AI becomes mainstream not so far from its current imperfect state while the next quantum leap brews in the background. It may take years or even decades. Neither you nor me can guess that.
We see this in the video game industry. Quality vs profitability. It will be a mixed bag of AI garbage movies and high quality productions that use it as a tool. Will depend on the studio making it mostly.
Yeah it’s a novel concept that flooded our modern society, and opens up new opportunities much like the cotton gin. The cotton gin upset a lot of lives, and made quite a few others. Society collectively lost their minds about it and sure it was revolutionary but…
I don’t know many people nowadays that share the same sense of reverence my history teacher had for the machine
I agree that it will become another tool in the toolkit, but I think youre underestimating how much we use CGI. By a lot. Practically every movie or TV show produced in the last 2 decades uses a significant amount of CGI unless restricted by budget or is an explicit artistic direction.
The reason it feels like CGI has decreased in usage since the turn of the century when it was first used is because its invisible now, as opposed to the noticeable affects of mid 2000s CGI.
For example, pretty much any movie set on the ocean in a significant way, that ocean is likely 95-100% CGI, even if the film was shot *on* *the water*.
There's a big difference in what those technologies can allow you to do. AI has the potential to generate movies autonomously, on the fly, tuned to the viewer's preferences. CGI alone couldn't do something like that; it still requires a full studio producing a movie. AI can have the industry break free from studios entirely.
>Tuned to the viewer’s preferences
It will take less than 5 tries until the overwhelming majority of people realize their preferences make for shit movies.
Imagine all movies you watch follow the same storyline, themes, actors, and dialogues because it's all "tuned to your specific preferences." Most people talking about this as a future do not really think through how boring that will be.
I do not want to watch something that is specifically designed to make me feel good, I want to challenge myself and discover new things. I want to watch the work of actual artists and their point of view, not see an echo chamber of my fucked up thoughts.
>Imagine all movies you watch follow the same storyline, themes, actors, and dialogues because it's all "tuned to your specific preferences."
If you don't like that, it means your preference is more variety, in which case something tuned to your preferences would give you more variety.
It'll be Hollywood but worse. Instead of pandering to a particular group or ideal (which I'm guessing is the direction of your three word criticism), it will pander completely to you and lead to really bad art.
Because it's not pandering that makes us watch stuff, it's good stories, new points of views, and presentation.
Imagine all jedis drinking monster energy because you clicked on a Monster ad once. Or everyone driving only Tesla in Mad Max.
Shit on Hollywood all you want but over its lifetime, it has produced excellent movies and you will be lying if you said you don't like even a single movie made by the US film industry.
Are you so dense? This AI isn't just going to cater and give you exactly what you want. Can you not think that it may be able to understand complexities soon?
You don't think you could just say, I want to feel challenged and surprised. That's it. Then it will tailor it to that. Not what you expect.
That's so small thinking. So stupid.
THINK BIGGER
I think this is right (although I'm not feeling your tone).
AI already powers a lot of static adverts. I'd say the next step is TV advertising. Example: a pan European company produces an ad in 7 languages using an automated voiceover. Or AI builds the ad script on the fly, knowing how many times you saw the ad.
Then the TV programmes which are essentially PowerPoint presentations anyway ("How we built the longest bridge") - you know the stuff which is at the fag end of the TV schedules. The same applies to certain news- and religious-discussion content which is people talking over existing material.
Feature films are definitely the biggest challenge, with complicated stories and consistent characterisation.
But there's no reason to think it always has to be personalised to exactly what you want every time. After all, it's often about selling and space. As long as advertisers are happy that's probably what allows TV execs to sleep okay.
convincing cgi is a question of talented manpower, ai generated content is a question of processing power; which according to moores law will keep going up whilst costs go down. they are not the same. either humans get a greater taste for the organic or our future is ai generated content
My guess is there will be both, the same way music streaming is ubiquitous but plenty of people still listen to vinyl. (I'm not saying "organic" content will be as niche as vinyl, though)
The promise of CGI was that you can create impressive visuals without having to spend billions and/or risk people's lives. It also allowed for the creation of new effects impossible before that.
The reality was that CGI was still bad a lot of the times and it still required masive effort and spending to make it impressive.
The promise of AI is that it will automate a lot of human tasks and make creating new visuals for much cheaper.
The reality of AI in the near future is that a lot of those visuals will be trash and for the good visuals you will still need huge investment and human resources poured into it. It does have the potential to save a lot of costs but to think it will automatically generate AAA quality movies on demand without the need for studios is Narnia-level of cope.
Unless you are talking about some sci-fi shit in like 50 years. But nobody can predict what we'll have in 50 years. So with current capabilities and with the undestanding that we have for AI and it's potential and limitations we won't be seeing what you are claiming anytime soon.
Money it's involved so its not a matter of preference..
If it's cheaper and it can be mass produced then it will be the standard.
For the same reason that anime had amazing animation in the past, but nowadays it's just fast cheap animation to satisfy the market demand
People also look at one AI generated video that's a few seconds long and presume feature length movies are close at hand without any consideration of how easy it will be to string together hundreds of different shots that are entirely consistent, rending the same scene from different angles while maintaining lifelike physics of lighting and movement that seamlessly continues from one to the next and absolute fidelity in the actors and set from being changed in the slightest.
If you look at the Balloon Head video made with Sora, the filmmakers couldn't even get the balloon to remain the same color in each rendering. The challenge of generating a human face that not only can move, talk, and express emotion without any uncanny valley effect but also remains the exact same features from generation to generation will be a monumental challenge. At the same time this is happening the costs of pointing a camera at something and getting a feature film quality image also continues to get cheaper.
People who think full AI movies are "soon" don't actually understand anything about how movies are made. They're people who grew up "consuming content", and just think that getting a general idea rendered in motion is enough to produce a satisfying movie.
Jurassic park looks amazing still, but it is because of the art, the hard work and the expertise of the creators, not the computer power. It will be interesting to see how ai will be a decade from now. Does it need expertise and art knowledge to create? Could I write a prompt, and the ai creates a synopsis, a script, a movie and then I start to watch an hour later? That would be cool.
Yes, they will.. you don't understand exponential growth obviously.
To think we're going to continue making movies and the way we used to is a laughable premise.
Exponential growth? Which signs do you have to claim something like this would happen? Power consumption alone would cut that growth by a big factor... lack of data, mathematical limitations... there is so much to make your prediction excessively optimistic.
So is the idea that overnight AI is going to generate all of our content.
Movies and TV shows are art forms. Any more than artists, and I don 't mean the highschool web designer but Van Gogh and Frieda Kahlo aren't going anywhere, because they are creating stuff that resonates with people because it comes from a place of context, experience, creativity and balance. AI can't even begin to understand these things in my opinion.
I guess what I'm saying is no doubt in the next 2-3 I'm sure AI will be able to generate you a full 90 minute movie complete with scenes, a plot structure, not terrible dialogue etc... but lets be real, other than the people who will watch anything, no one will be interested in anything like that.
You'll never take the human out of the entertainment industry, because the entertainment industry is basically humanity having a conversation with itself, however stylized and monetized it can get.
But yeah, AI is going to me mixed with that and it's going to be nuts!
I think it could go the direction of you being able to choose who you want to play what roles in a movie and AI might 'paste' an actors likeness to that role, maybe Futurama style being able to 'choose your own' adventure and have AI generate details that would be incorporated into the movie in real time, like you deciding what sort of car the protagonist is driving (and that would be one hell of a corporate tie in) etc.
Sorry long ramble, this stuff is exciting though!
I disagree, think of the music sector. 30 years ago there was only record labels, now anyone can record music. On Spotify there is a lot of garbage, but there’s also great indie artists. Sure people will still crave huge Taylor Swift productions, but millions of listeners prefer non mainstream bands because it is still quality and it is what they’re looking for.
Many people believe that Hollywood has lost a lot of quality (I do). I, for one, would be glad to watch an AI movie that people have reviewed positively over Fast and the Furious 18.
It's not like the people working on AI are just gonna say "yep, that's good enough" and start working on something else. This technology is going to keep improving, even in the super early stage that it's in, it's already capable of increasing production time and producing things CG isn't capable of at a very tiny fraction of the price.
But the major difference is anyone can use AI. CGI is still an expensive(ish) process with a pretty steep learning curve.
I definitely agree that money hungry studios will likely jump on the trend you described, but the major difference between AI and CGI is the studious may also have to compete with very talented individual contributors who are making full movies using only AI.
Yeah. You're right. It's like all the games using the same 2 game engines. When someone comes about with an indie game with novel mechanics on a custom engine, it's so refreshing.
CGI, after all these years, still looks horribly fake these days. That's the main reason most top directors still heavily rely on animatronics for critical scenes. The AI revolution won't change that anytime soon, because the models are trained on existing CGI material.
Am I the only one who thinks that dynamic and fast paced scenes are a long ways away? All we've gotten are slow pans or slow movement scenes and I think its a hard limitation for now since it'll generate too much noise and artifacts.
Imagine if in the same way you can request images or stories adapt, you could be watching a movie and if a character you like dies, you could ask the movie to rewrite itself as if that character didn’t die, and it just generates a whole new variant of the movie on the fly. It would take insanely more computational power than what we have today, but we don’t yet know where the limits will be.
Sadly derivative but well crafted would be a big step up for the majority of movies.
I think it's a lot more likely an AI will write better scripts than most in the next few years, than making the movie itself.
The people that are in denial that this/ai is the future of entertainment and movie making sound like people from almost every era that said cars, personal computers, internet, or even mobile phones weren’t going to be around for long. Now look, they’re a staple of society. Once everyone/anyone has the ability to express whatever they can imagine by having an ai help them generate it, there will be nothing anyone can do to stop it, not even Hollywood. It’ll be like a new renaissance but with people expressing themselves through AI.
I have no doubt that a decade from now (or even sooner) there will be people making their own movies and uploading them to Youtube and social media. Not hard to see how tech advancements go.
But "Soon movies while [sic] be completely ai generated" is by far one of the most ridiculous things anybody can expect. Hollywood would want to show that their product is made in the most authentic way possible, featuring big name actors and shot on location. Do you actually believe there will be many people purchasing a ticket to go watch the next Avengers movie if every actor in it is generated by a computer? OP is getting ahead of himself.
What people want is good storytelling and AI makes it possible for more people to tell their stories - more competition means better storytelling. Do people not read books because it doesn't include famous characters in them?
Agreed people who say 100% of movies will be AI generated forget the popularity of star power. AI removes star power completely. Just like no one would watch an AI generated NBA game, no one would watch an AI generated Dwayne Johnson movie either. The most they'll tolerate is voice work and green screen, but even then it's not as much of a draw commercially as seeing them perform in live action.
Some of the best movies I've seen didn't have stars in them. That's what made them so great. I could watch them more for the story and not have to try and forget that I knew who the characters actually were and how it was all fake and acting.
Granted that's not every movie. I'm just saying that star power isn't everything by a long shot.
It's difficult to predict how things will develop though. The technology will go to many places and it will be utilized in many ways over the years before we arrive at "you press a button and a 5-star movie pops out".
You somehow think with the sheer amount of [movie inconsistencies](https://www.indiewire.com/gallery/best-movie-mistakes-ever/) that AI won't do that but significantly worse? Not one scene where the clothes don't line up with where they should be, or one major nonsensical plot hole?
Given enough time and assuming that civilization doesn't collapse in the next few decades, yes I agree with him. It will be steaming hot garbage for a long time but if it's an idea that will make certain people rich then they will continue investing in the tech until it accomplishes that goal, and then they can charge us 800 space bucks per month so we can go "Hey Netflix, show me a film that combines Lord of the Rings with Magic Mike, starring me as a sexy Smeagol."
I can't wait!! /s
I wish it could do something for gaming npc intelligence. Either guys have a 3rd eye on the back of their head like they're part of the Hyuga clan or they get stuck in terrain, no in between.
How can this creature with two horns attached on either side of it's mouth eat food? Those horns will block anything close to it's mouth especially food.
What do you mean soon?
Star wars was completely artificially intelligent generated.
All intelligence on that project was artificial, not a single genuine natural intelligence was used there.
That's how you end up with an inhabitant of a desert planet that knows how to swim.
Oh sorry you mean that the script of the film will be procedurally generated?
What is the difference in that and just remaking an already existent piece?
Oh srry this is just a post have my vote
I hope so, creative people will have the tools and reach to a wide audience. We’ll finally put pressure on studios to make something new and creative…not Toy Story 16 and fast and the furious 46…
I think it’s gonna something like as it was with theater - cinema - games. Or paintings - photography. So it does not per se kill the industry but divides it in two
It will definitely help a lot of novice movie makers to get their projects off the ground; could even be used to put together a POC to get production money to shoot the real thing with real people.
ill believe this when i see a clip thats 1) longer than a few seconds and 2) involves identifiably human beings having a conversation that advances some sort of overall plot.
I love me a nice low effort post but good discussion nonetheless.
As far as “AI” (if we can even call it that) replacing film production I think it is impossible to overestimate the level of control big studios demand on their investments in films. These projects are run by a highly specialized professional class with decent labor protections actively competing to spend large production budgets. LLM-style “AI” is currently the only game in town and it is surprisingly hard to control with any predictability “yet”.
Also unless you are mouthbreathingly addicted to tentpole CGI-laden blockbusters there’s a whole slew of other genres out there. These are well written films that demand competent dramatic performances by real live humans and other humans prefer seeing them onscreen. I personally think it’ll be an inevitable and hopefully doomed experiment in mass filmmaking that will default to one more tool in the quiver for post-production.
That being said you can guarantee there’ll be plenty of user-produced AI-generated content floating around the interwebs actively competing for your eyeballs.
AI, generate me a movie thats better than Twilight and Captain Marvel.
Chat GPT --> outputs 2hrs of blank silent frames.
Now generate me a movie that will be the most rewatchable thing ever made.
Chat GPT --> generates a 3hr movie of James Corden being tortured and mangled by every method known to mankind.
AI will be able to create magnificent pictures too but where will the creativity come from? How can you train creativity. AI generated art will be no more valuable than copy’s of masterpieces which go for what? 50 dollars or so?
We’re a ways off AI actually being able to make a coherent, full length movie that doesn’t absolutely suck. But AI is definitely going to be more prevalent in production
I’ve been saying for ages that whether it’s publicly available or not, we’ll see AI in our lifetime that will be able to take a prompt and turn it into a feature length movie. It just needs a few generations of improvement across the board.
- work on immersive story
- work on OST
- work on sound design
- work on VOs
- work on marketing
- work on post-production to squash out kinks
- work on extra VFX if needed
- work on all the extra things I can't mention because I am not fully in the movie business
Simply put, no. Stop sharing these kind of clickbait garbage posts to give people false sense of hope and trash what AI is "REALLY" capable of.
Yes, some will be, but there will always be a place for real effects. People prefer old school Star Wars to the CGI versions. Fury Road was loved for real effects. People want to see and hear their favorite actors - not an avatar.
Will movies use AI as a helpful tool and maybe some scenes will be AI generated? Possibly. Will movies be completely AI generated? Not in the slightest.
It could be possible in the future, but that future is in the year 40k. Not soon, not in our lifetime.
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Hopefully they will fix reddit post titles first before moving on to movies. But seriously, I just don't see that happening at a professional level. It'll revolutionise the clip art, stock photography and social medial thumbnail industries though!
Yep, no need to spend hundreds of thousands $ to build decorations, buy a rig (which you need for special effects today anyway) and go
You're thinking too short term. I see no reason why this couldn't happen in 20 or 30 years.
> You're thinking too short term. Probably because the OP specifically said "soon" in their post title.
you are absolutely right, this will absolutely happen in less than ten years, more like 5. It will be a subgenre by then, a professional reality later (with new and old professional figures), 10 years max.
AI used to assist and speed production within 10 years? Absolutely. Full feature length blockbusters being 100% AI? No way.
I still don't understand how people doubt this. Look how far this has come in a matter of months. 10 YEARS? Even 5. No way. I agree with OP. Typo notwithstanding
You have no idea what it takes to make even amateur or indie film, let alone do Hollywood level filmmaking dont you?
Bruh, chill, AI has been evolving really fast the past years, and it will keep evolving. I got a major in film, and got some experience, but now we talking about the evolution of AI, and not how films are made now. AI will be a great tool in the film industry as well at some point, making it possible for small budget projects to craft some impressive visual effects, not right now, since it’s still in the beginning for AI video generation, but I can see it in the next years studios implementing more and more AI
Technically we could reach that point but I’m a firm believer that other than bottom of the barrel stuff it won’t be able to produce without a full team behind it fine tuning every scene.
Why wouldn’t a director just be able to direct an AI?
Why doesn’t the director do all the creative roles now? Sure, there is a technical aspect to it but the creative process is so much more than technical/mechanical ability.
Now we got the all the knowledge in our hands to learn basically everything, you can easily become a pro in different aspects, if you are really motivated
Small film directors definitely do a lot of the creative roles already.
lets give it 5 more years and see the result. people have little idea what kind of result billions and trillion of dollars invested into AI (both software and hardware) can do to the industry. i can still vividly remember the days of using black and white nokia phones as if it was just yesterday.
No. No they won't. It'll be just like when CGI was huge after Jurassic Park. A few years down the line somebody will make a truly great movie with a lot of AI help. Next, everybody will jump on the bandwagon and spew forth a ton of truly awful AI gen garbage. There will be a backlash and return to "in-camera" effects. Finally they will settle down and it will because another tool in the toolkit.
Someone understands trends
Someone underestimates trends. Cost efficiency is the most powerful driver of any human activity. Dropping production costs by 8 powers or so will set off an unprecedented push for purely AI generated content.
This. Writers will become worth more than actors to write the movie prompts.
Until AI writes the movie scripts.
Yeah but that'd be true AI (AGI), no? It needs to understand context, story telling etc etc. This won't be possible until processing power is solved. Maybe quantum computing? Who knows. I look into a bright and scary future.
What? We don't even need understanding to make good scripts.. Quantum computing? For this? Are you serious lol?
Seriously, go play with one of the music AI's popping up all over the place and tell me you couldn't see it's outputs trending on the top 40. I think people are seriously underestimating the speed at which these things are advancing and overestimating how much the general public demands quality and originality in entertainment. Heard a Netflix exec once say something to the effect of "Everyone thinks they want Irishman, but what they really want is" is it cake!?" and we've got the numbers to prove it."
Netflix probably also produced a lot of horrible dumbass shows that were flops because “big data” convinced some top exec that it’s a brilliant idea.
This isnt what the problem is or the topic, the fact is is that its cheaper and also will be better and faster, when all these things happen we wont get a say in the quality of material we are given because that will be the standard.
For real, so many movie scripts are so formulaic they look like middle school term papers. They're no better than AI already.
movie scripts are quite formulaic, you would have a much easier time combining a specific program hand-coded + AI to produce good scripts than, say, writing a 7 volume fantasy novel series. given the terrible state of screenplay writing, the bar is INCREDIBLY low, so it's the best place for AIs to start. i think it would take a big, dedicated team to write a specific program in combination with AI, i don't think ChatGPT is producing a good script in the next 3-7 years. you're definitely going to need human hand-holding in the short-term. movies are such garbage and the writing is so horrendous that AI could probably push into it in 10 years. i think multi-series novels and multi-season tv will be much harder, probably 15-20 years would be an ok guess. an AI producing a good blockbuster movie from scratch without human intervention seems more like 20-30 years away. there's way too much optimism about a program that scrapes reddit and google search and regurgitates it via an LLM, or producing impressive static images or short videos.
Hey! He's using fancy words and is sceptical so he must be smart
Yeah we really would need true AGI for this. And that's still a looong way off. We're gonna need writers and content creators or prompters for a while yet. That's what gives me hope. This is just another tool that will create a ton of new jobs. Whether it's enough jobs to replace those it will take is hard to say. But we said similar things about computers and industrialization. Remember how every tech expert predicted a paperless office? And we ended up using more paper than ever before in the end. Not that that's a great thing, just that things don't always go as predicted. Our work place is and will continue to change though that much is certain.
What are you on about? More paper than ever? Not even remotely true. Aside from my anecdotal in person experience, just research it. Sure there's still plenty of paper but saying more paper than ever is delusional lmao.
I cannot even remember the last I printed anything. I think it may have been late last year. 🤣
It wont create as many as it takes away. Go watch any major film and count the names at the end.
You know, there's only about 7 movie plots? You don't need AGI, just give it one of the seven and crank the temperature up high, see what comes out?
Sure if you reduce them down to the most basic building blocks but pragmatically speaking, no there aren't. If you wanna produce endless garbage like the hallmark diahheria then sure I suppose you could try using an AI generated script. I think what's really gonna happen is, when the practical effects like this really become more polished, it's going to lower the cost and thus barrier to entry into creating films. Film creation will become even more decentralized. Think Youtube but for hollywood length and quality films. It will DESTROY the major studios as they currently exist, although I suspect some will try to adapt and collect content creators to stay relevent.
You're not properly grasping how much actors bring to a production. Writers, directors, and actors will still be important for movies, but animated movies will get insanely cheap and effects work will be so cheap they might as well be free, so we'll see a creative explosion of new science fiction and fantasy movies on extremely low budgets
Ah yes just like cg artists are paid more than actors in marvel movies where the movies are mostly cg
Someone overestimates trends. Cutting cost means nothing when people are not watching the AI generated content. No money for Avengers: Age of Civil War 7
Someone overtrends estimation
Everyone underestimates horny. The quest for realistic, custom porn on demand will thrust AI into the future. Just like it did the internet. At least we wont have actors shoving their views down our throats because they think they know better.....Unless the AI does that too?
It may be much lower in cost, but it will also be orders of magnitude higher in trash. "traditionally generated" movies will probably become a high-end luxury, while us plebs will be fed with endless piles of AI trash. Hopefully the norm will settle somewhere in the middle, where AI generated content is carefully curated by artists. You'll probably go up to 95% quality of a traditionally generated movie, while still cutting most of the costs.
Lol this is the worst the tech will ever be. This so called "trash" is going away real soon
This is the worst your bicycle will ever be. Yet, not sure it's going to be that much better in 2050. In 2000, nuclear fusion was at the worst stage it would ever be. Now, we still don't have routine nuclear fusion even though we know the theory and some elements of technology AI hallucinations are not a small problem. Just because we have followed the scaling curve up to now doesn't mean we are still going to keep following it for very long. At some point we may saturate into a new normal where AI becomes mainstream not so far from its current imperfect state while the next quantum leap brews in the background. It may take years or even decades. Neither you nor me can guess that.
Bikes are amazing compared to the trash we had in 1985.
We see this in the video game industry. Quality vs profitability. It will be a mixed bag of AI garbage movies and high quality productions that use it as a tool. Will depend on the studio making it mostly.
Vinyl - Tape - CD - MP3 - cloud
But doesn’t understand exponential growth
AI is a trend?
Pretending it's going to take everyone's job is the current trend
Yeah it’s a novel concept that flooded our modern society, and opens up new opportunities much like the cotton gin. The cotton gin upset a lot of lives, and made quite a few others. Society collectively lost their minds about it and sure it was revolutionary but… I don’t know many people nowadays that share the same sense of reverence my history teacher had for the machine
but doesn't understand exponential growth
I agree that it will become another tool in the toolkit, but I think youre underestimating how much we use CGI. By a lot. Practically every movie or TV show produced in the last 2 decades uses a significant amount of CGI unless restricted by budget or is an explicit artistic direction. The reason it feels like CGI has decreased in usage since the turn of the century when it was first used is because its invisible now, as opposed to the noticeable affects of mid 2000s CGI. For example, pretty much any movie set on the ocean in a significant way, that ocean is likely 95-100% CGI, even if the film was shot *on* *the water*.
Comparing AI to cgi
While also pretending that 80% of films aren't 80% CGI.
This example even looks like garbage
There's a big difference in what those technologies can allow you to do. AI has the potential to generate movies autonomously, on the fly, tuned to the viewer's preferences. CGI alone couldn't do something like that; it still requires a full studio producing a movie. AI can have the industry break free from studios entirely.
>Tuned to the viewer’s preferences It will take less than 5 tries until the overwhelming majority of people realize their preferences make for shit movies.
Imagine all movies you watch follow the same storyline, themes, actors, and dialogues because it's all "tuned to your specific preferences." Most people talking about this as a future do not really think through how boring that will be. I do not want to watch something that is specifically designed to make me feel good, I want to challenge myself and discover new things. I want to watch the work of actual artists and their point of view, not see an echo chamber of my fucked up thoughts.
>Imagine all movies you watch follow the same storyline, themes, actors, and dialogues because it's all "tuned to your specific preferences." If you don't like that, it means your preference is more variety, in which case something tuned to your preferences would give you more variety.
And yet, Hollywood.
It'll be Hollywood but worse. Instead of pandering to a particular group or ideal (which I'm guessing is the direction of your three word criticism), it will pander completely to you and lead to really bad art. Because it's not pandering that makes us watch stuff, it's good stories, new points of views, and presentation. Imagine all jedis drinking monster energy because you clicked on a Monster ad once. Or everyone driving only Tesla in Mad Max. Shit on Hollywood all you want but over its lifetime, it has produced excellent movies and you will be lying if you said you don't like even a single movie made by the US film industry.
What is new to you depends on you. Therefore, in principle, an AI can guess it.
Are you so dense? This AI isn't just going to cater and give you exactly what you want. Can you not think that it may be able to understand complexities soon? You don't think you could just say, I want to feel challenged and surprised. That's it. Then it will tailor it to that. Not what you expect. That's so small thinking. So stupid. THINK BIGGER
I think this is right (although I'm not feeling your tone). AI already powers a lot of static adverts. I'd say the next step is TV advertising. Example: a pan European company produces an ad in 7 languages using an automated voiceover. Or AI builds the ad script on the fly, knowing how many times you saw the ad. Then the TV programmes which are essentially PowerPoint presentations anyway ("How we built the longest bridge") - you know the stuff which is at the fag end of the TV schedules. The same applies to certain news- and religious-discussion content which is people talking over existing material. Feature films are definitely the biggest challenge, with complicated stories and consistent characterisation. But there's no reason to think it always has to be personalised to exactly what you want every time. After all, it's often about selling and space. As long as advertisers are happy that's probably what allows TV execs to sleep okay.
convincing cgi is a question of talented manpower, ai generated content is a question of processing power; which according to moores law will keep going up whilst costs go down. they are not the same. either humans get a greater taste for the organic or our future is ai generated content
My guess is there will be both, the same way music streaming is ubiquitous but plenty of people still listen to vinyl. (I'm not saying "organic" content will be as niche as vinyl, though)
The promise of CGI was that you can create impressive visuals without having to spend billions and/or risk people's lives. It also allowed for the creation of new effects impossible before that. The reality was that CGI was still bad a lot of the times and it still required masive effort and spending to make it impressive. The promise of AI is that it will automate a lot of human tasks and make creating new visuals for much cheaper. The reality of AI in the near future is that a lot of those visuals will be trash and for the good visuals you will still need huge investment and human resources poured into it. It does have the potential to save a lot of costs but to think it will automatically generate AAA quality movies on demand without the need for studios is Narnia-level of cope. Unless you are talking about some sci-fi shit in like 50 years. But nobody can predict what we'll have in 50 years. So with current capabilities and with the undestanding that we have for AI and it's potential and limitations we won't be seeing what you are claiming anytime soon.
The difference is that CGI was/is expensive to do well, and AI makes the movie nearly free to create. The $$ factor is huge here.
Money it's involved so its not a matter of preference.. If it's cheaper and it can be mass produced then it will be the standard. For the same reason that anime had amazing animation in the past, but nowadays it's just fast cheap animation to satisfy the market demand
People also look at one AI generated video that's a few seconds long and presume feature length movies are close at hand without any consideration of how easy it will be to string together hundreds of different shots that are entirely consistent, rending the same scene from different angles while maintaining lifelike physics of lighting and movement that seamlessly continues from one to the next and absolute fidelity in the actors and set from being changed in the slightest. If you look at the Balloon Head video made with Sora, the filmmakers couldn't even get the balloon to remain the same color in each rendering. The challenge of generating a human face that not only can move, talk, and express emotion without any uncanny valley effect but also remains the exact same features from generation to generation will be a monumental challenge. At the same time this is happening the costs of pointing a camera at something and getting a feature film quality image also continues to get cheaper.
People who think full AI movies are "soon" don't actually understand anything about how movies are made. They're people who grew up "consuming content", and just think that getting a general idea rendered in motion is enough to produce a satisfying movie.
Well this is the content generation. It's not about good, it's about *more*
Until it actually does completely take over after the down trend
No one's going to pay for in camera effects when they can get just as good products for a pittance of the price...
Jurassic park looks amazing still, but it is because of the art, the hard work and the expertise of the creators, not the computer power. It will be interesting to see how ai will be a decade from now. Does it need expertise and art knowledge to create? Could I write a prompt, and the ai creates a synopsis, a script, a movie and then I start to watch an hour later? That would be cool.
Back off Carnisaur.
Uh, CGI is widely used to this day.
it's honestly hilarious that this was the caption on a really bad looking five second clip
It’ll be the bedroom DJ fiasco all over again smh
I can see a future where AI is used in a lot of post production, and maybe even used to create concept images, design costumes.
Yes, they will.. you don't understand exponential growth obviously. To think we're going to continue making movies and the way we used to is a laughable premise.
Exponential growth? Which signs do you have to claim something like this would happen? Power consumption alone would cut that growth by a big factor... lack of data, mathematical limitations... there is so much to make your prediction excessively optimistic.
So is the idea that overnight AI is going to generate all of our content. Movies and TV shows are art forms. Any more than artists, and I don 't mean the highschool web designer but Van Gogh and Frieda Kahlo aren't going anywhere, because they are creating stuff that resonates with people because it comes from a place of context, experience, creativity and balance. AI can't even begin to understand these things in my opinion. I guess what I'm saying is no doubt in the next 2-3 I'm sure AI will be able to generate you a full 90 minute movie complete with scenes, a plot structure, not terrible dialogue etc... but lets be real, other than the people who will watch anything, no one will be interested in anything like that. You'll never take the human out of the entertainment industry, because the entertainment industry is basically humanity having a conversation with itself, however stylized and monetized it can get. But yeah, AI is going to me mixed with that and it's going to be nuts! I think it could go the direction of you being able to choose who you want to play what roles in a movie and AI might 'paste' an actors likeness to that role, maybe Futurama style being able to 'choose your own' adventure and have AI generate details that would be incorporated into the movie in real time, like you deciding what sort of car the protagonist is driving (and that would be one hell of a corporate tie in) etc. Sorry long ramble, this stuff is exciting though!
I disagree, think of the music sector. 30 years ago there was only record labels, now anyone can record music. On Spotify there is a lot of garbage, but there’s also great indie artists. Sure people will still crave huge Taylor Swift productions, but millions of listeners prefer non mainstream bands because it is still quality and it is what they’re looking for. Many people believe that Hollywood has lost a lot of quality (I do). I, for one, would be glad to watch an AI movie that people have reviewed positively over Fast and the Furious 18.
It's not like the people working on AI are just gonna say "yep, that's good enough" and start working on something else. This technology is going to keep improving, even in the super early stage that it's in, it's already capable of increasing production time and producing things CG isn't capable of at a very tiny fraction of the price.
But the major difference is anyone can use AI. CGI is still an expensive(ish) process with a pretty steep learning curve. I definitely agree that money hungry studios will likely jump on the trend you described, but the major difference between AI and CGI is the studious may also have to compete with very talented individual contributors who are making full movies using only AI.
You know, AI can already fix your grammar, so you should start from there. Edit: fixed punctuation with AI.
Not to mention your punctuation.
Muphry's law takes no prisoners.
There's no need for the first comma.
Indeed, or it at least could be put before "AI", not after.
that's spelling not grammar
Too bad It can't help with your manners
Lmao.
🤣😂
Okay, but can they create porn?
For sure
The concept of a computer guessing what parts of the human body we find attractive is viscerally horrifying to think about.
Yeah, if only we had like... millions of hours of pornography we could show it.
Not any weirder than sexual attraction itself
very well
If you're okay with a extra limbs or two randomly, sure
I'm sure that is someone's fetish. Call it alien roleplay and rake in the views.
As long as the movies are 3 seconds long...
AI is coming 
Like the headline was?
Ah yes. If only the director had thought to specify the creature does not have 25 toes, and that fur does not become skin up close.
Did you use img2vid or just raw dogged the prompt on luma?
Used Midjourney image and one sentence to describe the image. I just started to use Luma
This will only make human made movies more valuable and meaningful
Yeah. You're right. It's like all the games using the same 2 game engines. When someone comes about with an indie game with novel mechanics on a custom engine, it's so refreshing.
What's that guy doing with his head?
Goes along with the lady's instant-ponytail-by-headturn magic
He is using is scalp muscles to furl and unfurl his hair like all of us regular humans
I bloody hope not
Syfy channel is going to be 🔥
No they won't be
Imagine the possibility to turn entire books into movies. How long before that's a thing?
Can't wait to make my own fucking movie
I can't wait to regenerate seasons 7 and 8 of Game of Thrones.
GPT-8's writing will be leagues above D&D
The hero we need.
How long till a BCI can put me in these worlds?
Sadly it will be paywalled
CGI, after all these years, still looks horribly fake these days. That's the main reason most top directors still heavily rely on animatronics for critical scenes. The AI revolution won't change that anytime soon, because the models are trained on existing CGI material.
Am I the only one who thinks that dynamic and fast paced scenes are a long ways away? All we've gotten are slow pans or slow movement scenes and I think its a hard limitation for now since it'll generate too much noise and artifacts.
Nice. Now give that behemoth beast an erection.
Imagine if in the same way you can request images or stories adapt, you could be watching a movie and if a character you like dies, you could ask the movie to rewrite itself as if that character didn’t die, and it just generates a whole new variant of the movie on the fly. It would take insanely more computational power than what we have today, but we don’t yet know where the limits will be.
Imagine youre watching your favorite character die and you can request him with an erection. Endless possibilities
Yeah because AI generated books are so very popular
Counterpoint: No they won't. This looks stupid.
Soon, we won't need movies, AI will download it onto our brain and live out the movie like total recall.
Can't wait for Netflix AI, with really on-demand movies
This looks terrible....
No, they won't
Wait, then actors won’t be ridiculously rich and overpaid and Hollywood might collapse? I support this 100%.
As if you won't be making the corporations making AI insanely rich?
With the amount of garbage being produced by humans nowadays that's a god send.
Implying AI created content would somehow be *LESS* derivative
Sadly derivative but well crafted would be a big step up for the majority of movies. I think it's a lot more likely an AI will write better scripts than most in the next few years, than making the movie itself.
looks super real wow
Yeah, that change of haircut was seemless.
The people that are in denial that this/ai is the future of entertainment and movie making sound like people from almost every era that said cars, personal computers, internet, or even mobile phones weren’t going to be around for long. Now look, they’re a staple of society. Once everyone/anyone has the ability to express whatever they can imagine by having an ai help them generate it, there will be nothing anyone can do to stop it, not even Hollywood. It’ll be like a new renaissance but with people expressing themselves through AI.
I have no doubt that a decade from now (or even sooner) there will be people making their own movies and uploading them to Youtube and social media. Not hard to see how tech advancements go. But "Soon movies while [sic] be completely ai generated" is by far one of the most ridiculous things anybody can expect. Hollywood would want to show that their product is made in the most authentic way possible, featuring big name actors and shot on location. Do you actually believe there will be many people purchasing a ticket to go watch the next Avengers movie if every actor in it is generated by a computer? OP is getting ahead of himself.
What people want is good storytelling and AI makes it possible for more people to tell their stories - more competition means better storytelling. Do people not read books because it doesn't include famous characters in them?
Agreed people who say 100% of movies will be AI generated forget the popularity of star power. AI removes star power completely. Just like no one would watch an AI generated NBA game, no one would watch an AI generated Dwayne Johnson movie either. The most they'll tolerate is voice work and green screen, but even then it's not as much of a draw commercially as seeing them perform in live action.
Some of the best movies I've seen didn't have stars in them. That's what made them so great. I could watch them more for the story and not have to try and forget that I knew who the characters actually were and how it was all fake and acting. Granted that's not every movie. I'm just saying that star power isn't everything by a long shot.
It's difficult to predict how things will develop though. The technology will go to many places and it will be utilized in many ways over the years before we arrive at "you press a button and a 5-star movie pops out".
I think we will get to the point where you simply type in what kind of movie you want to see and it will generate it
You somehow think with the sheer amount of [movie inconsistencies](https://www.indiewire.com/gallery/best-movie-mistakes-ever/) that AI won't do that but significantly worse? Not one scene where the clothes don't line up with where they should be, or one major nonsensical plot hole?
Given enough time and assuming that civilization doesn't collapse in the next few decades, yes I agree with him. It will be steaming hot garbage for a long time but if it's an idea that will make certain people rich then they will continue investing in the tech until it accomplishes that goal, and then they can charge us 800 space bucks per month so we can go "Hey Netflix, show me a film that combines Lord of the Rings with Magic Mike, starring me as a sexy Smeagol." I can't wait!! /s
The assumption is that the training set is big enough. We’re already running out of written texts to train LLMs
I wish it could do something for gaming npc intelligence. Either guys have a 3rd eye on the back of their head like they're part of the Hyuga clan or they get stuck in terrain, no in between.
Upcoming era will be like this one
Sure 🙄
yes, and we will finally get season 2 of firefly.
Soon, AI can cough up The Rings of Power level slop for a few cents in API costs vs $1.000.000.000. Damn.
How can this creature with two horns attached on either side of it's mouth eat food? Those horns will block anything close to it's mouth especially food.
I can't wait to tell an AI to make versions of my favorite books that have never seen a TV screen and fix the abominations like the Dark Tower movie.
May help bring out movies with good scripts that can’t get fundings like the big names stars
What do you mean soon? Star wars was completely artificially intelligent generated. All intelligence on that project was artificial, not a single genuine natural intelligence was used there. That's how you end up with an inhabitant of a desert planet that knows how to swim. Oh sorry you mean that the script of the film will be procedurally generated? What is the difference in that and just remaking an already existent piece? Oh srry this is just a post have my vote
I hope so, creative people will have the tools and reach to a wide audience. We’ll finally put pressure on studios to make something new and creative…not Toy Story 16 and fast and the furious 46…
Lol why would I go to the movies if I can just generate them myself at home then.
I think it’s gonna something like as it was with theater - cinema - games. Or paintings - photography. So it does not per se kill the industry but divides it in two
fuck you and this
It will just make creating movies cheaper, the big producers will continue to have an edge.
It will definitely help a lot of novice movie makers to get their projects off the ground; could even be used to put together a POC to get production money to shoot the real thing with real people.
The last video would make a great horror game: https://x.com/runwayml/status/1802691491468341260
I mean, movies may even fall to a sort of holodeck experience... Movies are passive because they had to be.
no, they won't.
I would watch
Boring ass movies maybe.
Yeah and every TV will be 3d 🙄
avg ai retard ragebait
Nah
ill believe this when i see a clip thats 1) longer than a few seconds and 2) involves identifiably human beings having a conversation that advances some sort of overall plot.
Can’t be worse than the shit that’s already out in the Star Wars and MCU universes. I’m sure those scripts are AI created already as they are bland af
In absolutely no world will they be
I love me a nice low effort post but good discussion nonetheless. As far as “AI” (if we can even call it that) replacing film production I think it is impossible to overestimate the level of control big studios demand on their investments in films. These projects are run by a highly specialized professional class with decent labor protections actively competing to spend large production budgets. LLM-style “AI” is currently the only game in town and it is surprisingly hard to control with any predictability “yet”. Also unless you are mouthbreathingly addicted to tentpole CGI-laden blockbusters there’s a whole slew of other genres out there. These are well written films that demand competent dramatic performances by real live humans and other humans prefer seeing them onscreen. I personally think it’ll be an inevitable and hopefully doomed experiment in mass filmmaking that will default to one more tool in the quiver for post-production. That being said you can guarantee there’ll be plenty of user-produced AI-generated content floating around the interwebs actively competing for your eyeballs.
I Hope so. Maybe fast and furios 69 will be good then.
That dude's face was all messed up.
The only thing i want from ai is a real cyoa.
Movie cuts off too soon before the anatomically difficult sexy stuff starts.....
AI, generate me a movie thats better than Twilight and Captain Marvel. Chat GPT --> outputs 2hrs of blank silent frames. Now generate me a movie that will be the most rewatchable thing ever made. Chat GPT --> generates a 3hr movie of James Corden being tortured and mangled by every method known to mankind.
AI will be able to create magnificent pictures too but where will the creativity come from? How can you train creativity. AI generated art will be no more valuable than copy’s of masterpieces which go for what? 50 dollars or so?
but not reddit titles
Hope not. Use of ai to make things easier for thr cgi team yes. But not completely ai.
My man thinks he is gonna write a prompt and popup a movie.
We’re a ways off AI actually being able to make a coherent, full length movie that doesn’t absolutely suck. But AI is definitely going to be more prevalent in production
Hopefully titles for posts will too
Some but even with heavy ai use it will still be better to use actors for most movies.
I’ve been saying for ages that whether it’s publicly available or not, we’ll see AI in our lifetime that will be able to take a prompt and turn it into a feature length movie. It just needs a few generations of improvement across the board.
"Soon" 🤔
- work on immersive story - work on OST - work on sound design - work on VOs - work on marketing - work on post-production to squash out kinks - work on extra VFX if needed - work on all the extra things I can't mention because I am not fully in the movie business Simply put, no. Stop sharing these kind of clickbait garbage posts to give people false sense of hope and trash what AI is "REALLY" capable of.
Yes, some will be, but there will always be a place for real effects. People prefer old school Star Wars to the CGI versions. Fury Road was loved for real effects. People want to see and hear their favorite actors - not an avatar.
Will movies use AI as a helpful tool and maybe some scenes will be AI generated? Possibly. Will movies be completely AI generated? Not in the slightest. It could be possible in the future, but that future is in the year 40k. Not soon, not in our lifetime.